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In the Arctic, the major climate threat of black carbon is overshadowed by geopolitical tensions

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In the Arctic, the major climate threat of black carbon is overshadowed by geopolitical tensions
News

News

In the Arctic, the major climate threat of black carbon is overshadowed by geopolitical tensions

2026-02-10 06:15 Last Updated At:06:20

REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) — As rising global temperatures speed up the melting of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, it’s set off a boom of ships taking routes that previously were frozen and not traversable.

The increase in marine Arctic traffic, which received increased attention as U.S. President Donald Trump pushed for the United States to take over Greenland, has come with a heavy environmental cost: black carbon, or soot, that spews from ships and makes the ice melt even faster. Several countries are making a case for ships in the Arctic to use cleaner fuels that cause less pollution in meetings this week with international shipping regulators.

Glaciers, snow and ice covered in the soot emitted by ships have less ability to reflect the sun. Instead, the sun’s heat is absorbed, helping to make the Arctic the fastest warming place on Earth. In turn, melting Arctic sea ice can affect weather patterns around the world.

“It ends up in a never-ending cycle of increased warming,” said Sian Prior, lead adviser for the Clean Arctic Alliance, a coalition of nonprofits focused on the Arctic and shipping. “We need to regulate emissions and black carbon, in particular. Both are completely unregulated in the Arctic.”

In December, France, Germany, the Solomon Islands and Denmark proposed that the International Maritime Organization require ships traveling in Arctic waters to use “polar fuels,” which are lighter and emit less carbon pollution than the widely used maritime fuels known as residuals. The proposal includes steps that companies would take to comply and show they are using cleaner fuels and the geographic area it would apply to — all ships traveling north of the 60th parallel. The proposal was expected to be presented this week to the IMO’s Pollution Prevention and Response Committee and possibly another committee in April.

A 2024 ban on using a type of residual known as heavy fuel oil in the Arctic has had only modest impacts so far, partly because of loopholes.

The push to reduce black carbon, which studies have shown has a warming impact 1,600 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20-year span, is happening at a time of conflicting interests, both internationally and among the countries that have coastlines in the Arctic.

In recent months, Trump's periodic comments about the need to “own” Greenland to bolster U.S. security have raised many issues, from Greenland's sovereignty to the future of the NATO alliance. Pollution and other environmental issues in the Arctic have taken a backseat.

Trump, who has called climate change a “con job,” has also pushed back against global policies aimed at fighting it. Last year, the IMO was expected to adopt new regulations that would have imposed carbon fees on shipping, which supporters said would have pushed companies to use cleaner fuels and electrify fleets where possible. Then Trump intervened, lobbying hard for nations to vote no. The measure was postponed for a year, its prospects at best uncertain. Given that, it’s hard to see the IMO making fast progress on the current proposal to limit black carbon in the Arctic.

Even inside Arctic nations, which are most impacted by black carbon and other shipping pollution, there are internal tensions around such regulations. Iceland is a good example. While the country is a world leader in green technologies such as carbon capture and the use of thermal energies for heating, conservationists say the country has made less progress on regulating pollution in its seas. That is because the fishing industry, one of the country’s most important, holds huge sway.

“The industry is happy with profits, unhappy with the taxes and not engaged in issues like climate or biodiversity,” said Arni Finnsson, board chair of the Iceland Nature Conservation Association.

Finnsson added that the costs of using cleaner fuels or electrifying fleets have also prompted resistance.

“I think the government is waking up, but they still have to wait for the (fishing) industry to say yes,” he said.

The country has not taken a position on the pending polar fuels proposal. In a statement, Iceland's Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate said the proposal was “positive with regard to its purpose and basic content,” but that further study was needed. The statement added that Iceland supports stronger measures to counter shipping emissions and reduce black carbon.

Soot pollution has increased in the Arctic as cargo ships, fishing boats and even some cruise liners are traveling more in the waters that connect the northernmost parts of Iceland, Greenland, Canada, Russia, Norway, Finland, Sweden and the United States.

Between 2013 and 2023, the number of ships entering waters north of the 60th parallel increased by 37%, according to the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum made up of the eight countries with territory in the Arctic. In that same period, the total distance traversed by ships in the Arctic increased 111%.

Black carbon emissions have also increased. In 2019, 2,696 metric tons of black carbon was emitted from ships north of the 60th parallel compared with 3,310 metric tons in 2024, according to a study by Energy and Environmental Research Associates. The study found that fishing boats were the biggest source of black carbon.

It also found that the 2024 ban on heavy fuel oil would only result in a small reduction in black carbon. Waivers and exceptions allow some ships to continue using it until 2029.

Environmental groups and concerned countries see regulating ship fuel as the only way to realistically reduce black carbon. That is because getting nations to agree to limit traffic would likely be impossible. The lure of fishing, resource extraction and shorter shipping distances is too great. Ships can save days on some trips between Asia and Europe by sailing through the Arctic.

Still, the path known as the Northern Sea Route is only traversable a few months of the year, and even then ships must be accompanied by icebreakers. Those dangers, combined with Arctic pollution concerns, have driven some companies to pledge to stay away — at least for now.

“The debate around the Arctic is intensifying, and commercial shipping is part of that discussion,” wrote Søren Toft, CEO of Mediterranean Shipping Company, the world's largest container shipping company, in a LinkedIn post last month. “Our position at MSC is clear. We do not and will not use the Northern Sea Route.”

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

FILE - An Icebreaker makes the path for a cargo ship with an iceberg in the background near a port on the Alexandra Land island near Nagurskoye, Russia, May 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

FILE - An Icebreaker makes the path for a cargo ship with an iceberg in the background near a port on the Alexandra Land island near Nagurskoye, Russia, May 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — If President Donald Trump is coming to the game, bet on the visiting team.

You'll usually be in the money — at least if recent history holds.

The New York Knicks, after two straight wins in the finals against the San Antonio Spurs, lost at home 115-111 on Monday night with Trump, a longtime fan of the Big Apple's NBA team, in a luxury suite at Madison Square Garden.

He similarly may have had a jinxing role for MLB's Washington Nationals during his first term, when the home team lost Game 5 of the World Series to the Houston Astros 7-1.

In November, the president was on hand when the NFL's Washington Commanders hosted the Detroit Lions, and the visitors romped 44-22. And he was front and center at Bethpage Black when Europe topped the U.S. golf team in last fall's Ryder Cup.

It’s a glaring irony for a president fanatical about sports but also especially obsessed with winning.

Trump frequently mentions his own election victories, even boasting of a 2020 win over Joe Biden that never happened, and touts his record of endorsing winning Republican primary candidates. His love of sports also sometimes leads him into hostile territory, including heavily Democratic Manhattan, where his very presence led to sustained booing before Game 3's tipoff.

The White House called the suggestion that Trump's attendance might not bode well for home teams “foolish” and called him “the people's president.”

“President Trump is the greatest champion for sports of any president in American history, and he loves them," spokesperson Olivia Wales said in a statement.

To be fair, Trump's attendance doesn't guarantee the home team will lose.

Last September, the New York Yankees beat the visiting Detroit Tigers 9-3 as the president marked the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Trump was also there when Navy beat Army 17-16 in Baltimore last fall, when the Midshipmen were technically the home team — though Navy wasn't playing in its home stadium in Annapolis, Maryland.

He's also been to plenty of sporting events where home field advantage isn't a factor.

That was true for his attending the U.S. Open in September and the 2025 Super Bowl in New Orleans, where the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs, as well as that year's Daytona 500. Ditto for 2025s NCAA wrestling championships in Philadelphia and the FIFA Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

It also won't be an issue Sunday, when the White House's South Lawn will host a UFC show to mark Trump's 80th birthday.

If the trend holds, however, it may not be great news for the U.S. national team in the World Cup, which opens Thursday.

The Americans have never made it past the semifinal stage in the tournament's modern history anyway — and they'll have to contend this time with Trump playing an outsize role in organizing the event. He has pledged to attend the final and award the trophy to the winning team.

Some Knicks fans have faulted the president for the Game 3 defeat, even though their team still leads the series. Game 4 will also be played in New York on Wednesday, though this time Trump isn't expected to attend.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 Democratic presidential candidate and frequent foil for the president, playfully picked up on the theme of Trump as a jinx, reposting a past White House post on X declaring “Call it the Trump effect” alongside discussion about the Knicks' loss.

ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith — himself mentioned as a possible future presidential hopeful — suggested before Game 3 that it'd be Trump's fault if the Knicks didn't win. Afterward, he said, “What I feared would happen ended up happening.”

“The president disrupted our mojo,” said Smith, a longtime Knicks fan, before adding, “The man messed things up.”

Asked after the game about Smith potentially blaming him for a Knicks loss, Trump dismissed the commentator's political aspirations and questioned his intelligence.

“I think he’s a nice guy. But you need a certain aptitude to run for president,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One for his flight back to Washington early Tuesday

“You need a high IQ. I’m not sure that Stephen has that,” he said. “I don’t think he does, actually.”

Before he was a politician, Trump, a native of the New York City borough of Queens, frequently attended Knicks games, sometimes sitting courtside. His return to the Garden nonetheless drew long and loud boos when his face was shown on the jumbotron during the national anthem.

In fact, he's been roundly booed repeatedly, though it has more to do with his politics than any role he might have in jinxing the home team. Trump drew boos at the Nationals' World Series game and during the Commanders game and the U.S. Open. At some events he's cheered and the crowd reaction can also be mixed — though Trump just as likely to simply claim a more friendly reception than he actually gets.

After the Knicks game, the president tried to suggest that the boos were “I think, mostly cheers.” The White House similarly attempted to spin the incident into a political show of strength, posting a photo of Trump at the game with the caption “King of New York.”

Offering a different assessment was New York's Daily News tabloid. It featured a cartoon of an exaggeratedly rotund Trump wearing a No. 38 Knicks jersey — with a bubble emerging from his mouth saying “approval rating.”

President Donald Trump attends an NBA Finals playoff basketball game between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs at Madison Square Garden in New York, Monday, June 8, 2026, with Kai Trump. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump attends an NBA Finals playoff basketball game between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs at Madison Square Garden in New York, Monday, June 8, 2026, with Kai Trump. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

A New York Knicks fan cheers at a watch party during Game 3 of the NBA Finals basketball series between the Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs, Monday, June 8, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

A New York Knicks fan cheers at a watch party during Game 3 of the NBA Finals basketball series between the Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs, Monday, June 8, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Ryan Murphy)

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