CHICAGO (AP) — Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show. What she did exactly, well, that turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.
At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday's appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.
Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.
The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.
More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi’s market for “ Who will perform at the Big Game? ” A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.
Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.
Due to “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance,’” Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.
Polymarket's contract was resolved as Cardi B had performed, but the yes was disputed. A final decision on the contract is expected to be announced on Wednesday.
In the CFTC complaint — first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports — the trader alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act with how it resolved the Cardi B contract. The trader — a Yes holder — is seeking $3,700.
A message was left Tuesday night seeking more information from the CFTC.
The Super Bowl capped a big NFL season for prediction markets.
Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year's Super Bowl. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year.
The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.” She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the effected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.
Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction markets when it announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2025 on Tuesday.
“I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,” CEO Vlad Tenev said during an earnings call. “This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer.”
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FILE - Cardi B attends the Balmain Spring/Summer 2025 collection presented in Paris on Sept. 25, 2024. (Photo by Vianney Le Caer/Invision/AP, File)
Thousands of Catholic devotees commemorated Good Friday across Latin America with processions and ceremonies re-enacting the crucifixion of Jesus.
In Antigua, a colonial-era city in southern Guatemala, dozens dressed in purple and white robes and made their way under the early morning sun, many of them penitents known as “cucuruchos.” Others carried centuries-old images of Jesus through cobblestone streets.
The city hosts more than a dozen processions throughout Holy Week, set against a backdrop of volcanoes.
Marcos Bautista, 63, said he has attended the Good Friday observances since his father brought him along as a baby in his arms.
“To describe Holy Week in Antigua, there are no words that can capture what it feels like," Bautista said. “It’s a feeling that, just by speaking about what Jesus has done in our lives, moves me deeply.”
In Bolivia, President Rodrigo Paz traveled to the southern city of Tarija to participate in Good Friday ceremonies.
The country is a secular state under its constitution and its leaders refrained from engaging in any religious events between 2006 and 2025. But Paz — who took office last November — broke with precedent by attending Palm Sunday Mass carrying a palm frond.
In the capital city of La Paz, local authorities and military bands accompanied Good Friday processions, in which hooded penitents carried the Holy Sepulcher through the streets.
Antonio Santamaría, who was holding an image of Jesus, said he welcomed the government’s presence. “I’m glad everyone is here now,” Santamaría said.
Bolivia remains a predominantly Catholic country, alongside strong Indigenous spiritual traditions. In some households, it is customary to eat only fish on Good Friday and prepare up to 12 dishes representing the apostles of Jesus, a tradition that has declined in recent years amid an economic crisis.
In Ecuador, where about 80% of the population identifies as Catholic, processions were held across major cities. In the capital, Quito, the “Jesús del Gran Poder” procession drew more than 150,000 faithful who filled the historic center’s streets with chants and prayers as they accompanied an image of Jesus carrying the cross.
Thousands more climbed the Monserrate Hill in neighboring Colombia. At more than 10,200 feet (3,100 meters) above sea level, they reached the summit in the capital city of Bogotá to attend Mass at the basilica. Similar observances, including reenactments of the Stations of the Cross, were held in other parts of the country.
Mexicans, too, celebrated Good Friday in a country that’s home to nearly 100 million Catholics.
Masked penitents, in chains and with pieces of cactus stuck to their skin, walked through the town of Atlixco, in the central state of Puebla. Known as the “Procession of the Chained," it’s part of a tradition in which some participants pay penance for their sins and others thank God for miracles.
“It’s very beautiful, very sad,” said Marcela Ramírez, a homemaker who attended the procession. “It’s a kind of reverence, and you have to come and accompany them.”
While the share of Catholics in Latin America has declined over the past decade, the faith remains the region’s largest religion.
In several countries, including Peru and Argentina, more than 60% of adults still identify as Catholic, according to 2024 surveys by the Pew Research Center and Latinobarómetro.
AP journalists Moisés Castillo in Antigua, Guatemala; Carlos Valdez and Juan Karita in La Paz, Bolivia; Gonzalo Solano and Gabriela Molina, in Quito, Ecuador; and Martín Silva in Atlixco, Mexico, contributed to this report.
Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
A penitents known as a "Veronica" takes part in the Jesus del Gran Poder procession in Quito, Ecuador, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa).
Hooded penitents known as "Cucuruchos" take part in the Jesus del Gran Poder procession in Quito, Ecuador, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Dolores Ochoa).
A blindfolded penitent wears a crown of thorns before a Good Friday procession during Holy Week celebrations in Atlixco, Mexico, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
Chains drape over the Santa Muerte tattoo of a penitent before a Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Atlixco, Mexico, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
A penitent wearing chains and prickly cactus holds a photo on a cross at a Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Atlixco, Mexico, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
Penitents from the Nazareno brotherhood carry a statue of Jesus down the steps of the Cathedral Basilica of St. James the Apostle for a Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Tunja, Colombia, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)
A hooded penitent from the Nazareno brotherhood waits for the Good Friday procession inside the Cathedral Basilica of St. James the Apostle during Holy Week in Tunja, Colombia, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)
Young women and girls carry jeweled hearts representing the Virgin Mary at a Good Friday procession during Holy Week in La Paz, Bolivia, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)
Hooded penitents participate in a Good Friday procession during Holy Week in La Paz, Bolivia, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)
A statue of Jesus Christ with a cross makes its way past electric cables at La Merced church's Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Antigua, Guatemala, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
Women carry children dressed as penitents knows as "cucuruchos" on the sidelines of La Merced church's Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Antigua, Guatemala, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
Penitents carry statues of Jesus Christ representing the Stations of the Cross at a Good Friday procession by La Merced church during Holy Week in Antigua, Guatemala, just before sunrise Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
Musicians dressed as Roman soldiers take part in La Merced church's Good Friday procession during Holy Week in Antigua, Guatemala, Friday, April 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
