Crowded Democratic field in California governor's race might provide a rare opening for the GOP

LOS ANGELES (AP) — How many Democrats are too many?

In the race for California governor, so many Democratic candidates have crowded into the contest that party insiders have become fearful of a historic calamity in the making. It’s become mathematically possible that Democrats divide their vote so much that two Republicans advance from the June primary to the general election.

“It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell said.

The uncertainty in the outcome stems from the state’s unpredictable “ top two ” primary system. All candidates appear on a single ballot but only the two top finishers advance to the November general election, regardless of party. It's the first time since voters approved that system more than a decade ago that there's been a governor's race with no clear frontrunner, helping feed a “Why not me?” mentality among the large number of Democrats flooding into the contest.

“There’s a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November’s ballot,” the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, warned in a recent fundraising pitch.

Though it remains a distant longshot, it's hard to understate the political shock that would come with two Republicans perched atop California's midterm ballot. The state is known as a Democratic fortress, and a GOP candidate hasn’t won a statewide election in two decades. It would also have implications for races down the ballot, including congressional battlegrounds that could determine control of the U.S. House.

Why so many candidates? The governor's chair in California has always had magnetic allure — it’s one of the most powerful political platforms in the nation. The state — by itself — is ranked as the world’s fourth-largest economy. It’s the nation’s top agricultural producer and is home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget tallies nearly $350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equal to the market value of Netflix.

With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, it's the most wide-open contest for governor in a generation.

Dozens of people have filed paperwork to run, from a college student to a billionaire. Among them are at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising machinery to seriously compete.

That list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; former state controller Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, a former majority leader in the state Assembly.

With the Democrats occupying much of the same ideological turf, candidates are highlighting other markers to break away from the pack. Swalwell, for example, has campaigned partly on his role as a House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, the newest candidate in the race, has been a frequent critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is among Mahan’s top critics, saying he’s too aligned with tech interests.

Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on its own.

It would be best for “the lower-tiered people to drop out,” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You are looking at people who are never going to break through.”

Mitchell said he used available polling data to run a series of simulations to assess the likelihood of a twin GOP breakthrough and found it was possible, though with long odds. The leading GOP candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump.

California is one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide, Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010 and Republicans have been reduced to powerless spectators in the Legislature.

In a primary, the Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the vote, Republicans, 40%. The math gets challenging for Democrats if the party has a long list of credible candidates in the race, cutting up their share of the vote.

“It’s a small probability but one that would be a massive, massive deal,” Mitchell said. The quandary for Democrats: “There isn’t somebody who is going to come in and tell these lower-tier candidates they can’t run.”

Republicans, for their part, are also concerned about the tricky math. Hilton has been calling on Bianco to drop out in hopes that Republicans would consolidate to push one candidate into the November election.

“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate.

The race is displaying some similarity with the rapidly developing 2028 Democratic contest for president, where a large field is assembling to contend for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping from the thrashing the national party suffered in 2024 and candidates in both races are testing messages they hope will galvanize voters in the midterms and beyond.

With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the abundance of candidates is a sign of both energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.

The common denominator between the races: “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our coalition,” Seawright said.

Tom Steyer, right, and Matt Mahan talk to attendees after the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)

From left, Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Tom Steyer, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee stand on the stage during the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)

FILE - Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., speaks to reporters after a campaign event on Proposition 50 in San Francisco, Nov. 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

Matt Mahan talks to attendees after the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Laure Andrillon)

FILE - U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., waves at supporters at an election party, March 5, 2024, in Long Beach, Calif. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)

TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) — A person has been detained for questioning in the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, officials said Tuesday, offering another potential break in a case that has gripped the nation for more than a week.

Deputies detained the person during a traffic stop south of Tucson on Tuesday, according to the Pima County Sheriff’s Department.

The department did not immediately provide additional details. It wasn’t clear if the person being questioned is the person captured on surveillance video outside Guthrie’s house that was released earlier Tuesday.

The FBI referred all questions about a person being detained to the sheriff’s department.

The department, along with the FBI’s Evidence Response Team, was also conducting a court-authorized search in Rio Rico, about an hour south of Tucson, Tuesday night as part of the investigation, the department said in a statement. It was expected to take several hours.

The news came hours after the FBI released surveillance images of a masked person with a handgun holster outside the front door the night Nancy Guthrie vanished.

The person wearing a backpack and a ski mask can be seen in one of the videos tilting their head down and away from a doorbell camera while nearing an archway at the home of of the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie.

The footage shows the person holding a flashlight in their mouth and trying to cover the camera with a gloved hand and part of a plant ripped from Nancy Guthrie's yard.

The videos — less than a combined minute in length — gave investigators and the public their first glimpse of who was outside Nancy Guthrie's home just outside Tucson, but the images did not show what happened to her or help determine whether the 84-year-old is still alive.

FBI Director Kash Patel said the “armed individual” appeared to "have tampered with the camera." It was not entirely clear whether there was a gun in the holster.

The videos were pulled from data on "back-end systems” after investigators spent days trying to find lost, corrupted or inaccessible images, Patel said.

“This will get the phone ringing for lots of potential leads,” said former FBI agent Katherine Schweit. “Even when you have a person who appears to be completely covered, they’re really not. You can see their girth, the shape of their face, potentially their eyes or mouth.”

By Tuesday afternoon, authorities were back near Nancy Guthrie’s neighborhood, using vehicles to block her driveway. A few miles away, law enforcement was going door-to-door in the area where daughter Annie Guthrie lives, talking with neighbors as well as walking through a drainage area and examining the inside of a culvert with a flashlight.

Investigators have said for more than a week that they believe Nancy Guthrie was taken against her will. She was last seen at home Jan. 31 and reported missing the next day. DNA tests showed blood on her porch was hers, authorities said.

She has high blood pressure and issues with mobility and her heart, and she needs daily medication, officials have said.

Until now, authorities have released few details, leaving it unclear if ransom notes demanding money with deadlines already passed were authentic, and whether the Guthrie family has had any contact with whoever took Nancy Guthrie.

Savannah Guthrie posted the new surveillance images on social media Tuesday, saying the family believes Nancy Guthrie is still alive and offering phone numbers for the FBI and county sheriff. Within minutes, the post had thousands of comments.

Investigators had hoped cameras would turn up evidence right away about how Nancy Guthrie disappeared from her home in an secluded neighborhood.

But the doorbell camera was disconnected early on Feb. 1. While software recorded movement at the home minutes later, Nancy Guthrie did not have an active subscription, so Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos had initially said none of the footage could be recovered. Officials continued working to get the footage.

Heartbreaking messages by Savannah Guthrie and her family shifted from hopeful to bleak as they made pleas for whoever took Nancy Guthrie. In a video just ahead of a purported ransom deadline Monday, Savannah Guthrie appeared alone and spoke directly to the public.

“We are at an hour of desperation,” she said. “We need your help.”

Much of the nation is closely following the case involving the longtime anchor of NBC’s morning show.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump watched the new surveillance footage and was in “pure disgust,” encouraging anyone with information to call the FBI.

The FBI this week began posting digital billboards about the case in major cities from Texas to California.

Connor Hagan, a spokesperson for the FBI, said Monday that the agency was not aware of ongoing communication between Guthrie’s family and any suspected kidnappers. Authorities also had not identified any suspects, he said.

Three days after the search began, Savannah Guthrie and her two siblings sent their first public appeal to whoever took their mother, saying, “We want to hear from you, and we are ready to listen.”

In the recorded video, Guthrie said her family was aware of media reports about a ransom letter, but they first wanted proof their mother was alive. "Please reach out to us,” they said.

The next day, Savannah Guthrie’s brother again made a plea, saying, “Whoever is out there holding our mother, we want to hear from you. We haven’t heard anything directly."

Then over the past weekend, the family posted another video — one that was more cryptic and generated even more speculation about Nancy Guthrie's fate.

“We received your message, and we understand. We beg you now to return our mother to us so that we can celebrate with her,” said Savannah Guthrie, flanked by her siblings. “This is the only way we will have peace. This is very valuable to us, and we will pay.”

Seewer reported from Toledo, Ohio. Associated Press reporters Darlene Superville in Washington, Ed White in Detroit and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed to this report.

An investigator looks inside a culvert in the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)

A member of the Pima County Sheriff's Department stands in front of the front door of the house of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)

A Pima County Sheriff's Office member stands next to his vehicle in front of Nancy Guthrie's home Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)

FILE - This image provided by the Pima County Sheriff's Department on Feb. 2, 2026, shows a missing person alert for Nancy Guthrie. (Pima County Sheriff's Department via AP, File)

A small vigil grows near Nancy Guthrie‘s house, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)

A woman walks her dog past a Pima county sheriff's vehicle parked in front of Nancy Guthrie's home on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)

A member of the Pima county sheriff's office walks around Nancy Guthrie's home on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil)