WASHINGTON (AP) — A measure of inflation may have fallen to a five-year low in January as rental costs have cooled, a sign that some prices are moderating while Americans continue to grapple with a big rise in overall prices in the past five years.
Inflation is forecast to have fallen to a 2.4% annual rate in January from 2.7% in December in the latest government report on consumer prices to be issued Friday. That would be the lowest rate in nine months. Core prices, which exclude the volatile food and gas categories, are expected to decline to 2.5% from 2.6%, the lowest in nearly five years, according to data provider FactSet.
On a monthly basis, inflation may show signs of remaining elevated: Overall and core prices are expected to rise 0.3% in January from December, a pace that if maintained for several months would start to push annual inflation higher.
Friday's report may point to cooling inflation, but it comes after the cost of food, gas, and apartment rents have soared since the pandemic, with consumer prices about 25% higher than they were five years ago. The increase in such a broad range of costs has become a high-profile political issue under the rubric of “affordability.”
If inflation gets closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, it could allow the central bank to cut its key short-term interest rate further this year, as Trump has repeatedly demanded. High borrowing costs for things like mortgages and auto loans have also contributed to a perception that many big-ticket items remain out of reach for many Americans.
In January, economists expect that gas prices will have declined, while the cost of groceries could rise again after they jumped in December. Overall prices could increase by more than expected, economists say, because costs often rise more in January than other months as companies reset their prices at the beginning of the year.
Inflation surged to 9.1% in 2022 as consumer spending soared at the same time supply chains snarled in the wake of the pandemic. It began to fall in 2023 but leveled off around 3% in mid-2024 and has since barely improved.
Inflation cooled a bit this fall, though some of that reflected the disruptions of the six-week government shutdown in October. The shutdown disrupted the government's data collection and led them to estimate price changes in November for housing that most economists say artificially lowered inflation that month.
At the same time, measures of wage growth have declined in the past year or so as hiring has cratered. With companies reluctant to add jobs, workers don't have as much leverage to demand raises. Smaller pay increases can reduce inflationary pressures as companies often raise prices to offset higher wages.
More modest wage growth is a big reason that many economists expect inflation to continue easing this year.
“We're not expecting inflation to start up again by any stretch,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust.
Many businesses are still eating some tariff costs and economists expect they may raise prices more in the next few months to offset those extra expenses. Still, most forecast that inflation will decline further by the second half of the year and drop closer to the Fed's 2% target by the end of 2026.
A shopper looks at produce at a grocery store Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
Utah appeared to find a loophole in the NBA's player participation policy, but the league sent a message Thursday by hitting the Jazz with a $500,000 fine.
The NBA also docked the Indiana Pacers $100,000 for holding out Pascal Siakam and two other starters in a Feb. 3 game against the Jazz.
The policy was put in place in September 2023 to try to discourage clubs from purposely losing in order to improve their chances with the draft lottery. This year's draft is considered the strongest in several years, possibly incentivizing clubs like the Jazz to position themselves for a high pick.
The Jazz did not play stars Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the fourth quarter of recent close games. Both played three quarters in recent road games against Miami and Orlando. The Magic rallied from 17 points down to win 120-117, but the Jazz defeated the Heat 115-111.
Jazz coach Will Hardy was asked after the game at Miami whether he considered playing Markkanen and Jackson in the fourth quarter.
“I wasn’t,” Hardy said succinctly.
Hardy said Thursday night after a loss to Portland that he was following the advice of the team's medical staff.
“I sat Lauri because he was on a minutes restriction," he said. "So if our medical team puts a minutes restriction on Lauri, I’ll try to keep Lauri healthy.”
Jackson's minutes are restricted because of a growth on his knee, Hardy said.
In fining the Jazz said, the NBA said in its release “these players were otherwise able to continue to play and the outcomes of the games were thereafter in doubt.”
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in a statement the competition committee and team owners will work "to implement further measures to root out this type of conduct.”
“Overt behavior like this that prioritizes draft position over winning undermines the foundation of NBA competition and we will respond accordingly to any further actions that compromise the integrity of our games,” Silver said.
Silver likely will further address the topic when he meets with the media Saturday during All-Star weekend in Los Angeles.
“Agree to disagree ...,” Jazz owner Ryan Smith posted on social media. “Also, we won the game in Miami and got fined? That makes sense ...”
The NBA fined Utah $100,000 last season after the Jazz rested Markkanen in multiple games.
He and the recently-acquired Jackson are the building blocks for the Jazz to try to get back into contention. They traded with Memphis on Feb. 3 for the two-time All-Star and 2023 Defensive Player of the Year.
Jackson, however, will be out for the foreseeable future. He will undergo surgery over the NBA all-star break to remove a growth from his left knee, discovered by an MRI in a physical following the trade. Jackson averaged 22.3 points in 24 minutes per game after joining the Jazz.
Utah has prioritized player development with younger players on its roster at the expense of chasing wins. The front office is motivated to hold onto a first-round pick in this year's draft that is top-eight protected. Falling outside the bottom eight in the standings means Utah would lose that pick to Oklahoma City.
A number of teams, including the Jazz, would seem to have a great interest in securing a high selection for this year's draft.
One of those top prospects plays just south of Salt Lake. BYU's AJ Dybantsa is considered a likely top-three and potentially franchise-changing pick along with Duke's Cameron Boozer and Kansas' Darryn Peterson.
But it's also a deep draft where simply getting into the lottery could mean still getting a shot at a difference-making player.
The Jazz, 18-37 entering Thursday night's game against Portland, will miss the postseason for the fourth year in a row. This comes after a six-year stretch in which the Jazz made the playoffs each season.
Under the direction of CEO Danny Ainge and his son and team president, Austin, the Jazz ultimately are trying to return to the glory days when they didn't just make the playoffs. The John Stockton-Karl Malone teams in 1990s were regular championship contenders, making the NBA Finals in 1997 and 1998.
Freelance writer John Coon in Salt Lake City contributed to this report.
AP NBA: https://apnews.com/hub/NBA
Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy watches play during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Sacramento Kings, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rob Gray)
Utah Jazz center Jaren Jackson Jr. (20) is defended by Orlando Magic forward Tristan da Silva, left, during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (23) drives to the basket against Sacramento Kings center Maxime Raynaud (42) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rob Gray)
