How Mexico killed the powerful cartel leader ‘El Mencho’ and what it means

MEXICO CITY (AP) — The Mexican army killed the country’s most powerful cartel leader and one of the United States’ most wanted fugitives on Sunday, notching a major victory while cartel members responded with a wave violence across the country.

The killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes during an attempt to capture him in Jalisco state was the highest-profile blow against cartels since the recapture of former Sinaloa cartel boss Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán a decade ago.

Following Oseguera Cervantes' death, gunmen unleashed violence across the country. Cars burned out by cartel members blocked roads in 20 Mexican states and left smoke billowing into the air. People locked themselves in their homes in Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city and Jalisco's capital, and school was canceled Monday in several states as security forces were placed on alert all over the country. Even Guatemala reinforced security on its border with Mexico.

The killing could give the government a leg up in its dealings with the U.S. Trump administration, which has been threatening tariffs or unilateral military action if Mexico does not show results in the fight against the cartels.

But the long-term effect on Mexico's security landscape remains unclear.

Here's what to know:

Oseguera Cervantes, better known as “El Mencho,” was 59 years old and originally from the western state of Michoacan. His ties to organized crime went back at least three decades.

In 1994, he was tried for trafficking heroin in the U.S. and sent to prison for three years. Upon returning to Mexico, he quickly rose through Mexico's drug trafficking underworld.

Around 2009, he founded the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which became Mexico's fastest-growing criminal organization, moving cocaine, methamphetamines, fentanyl and migrants to the United States, and innovating in violence with the use of drones and improvised explosive devices.

The cartel earned a reputation for brazen attacks on Mexican security forces, including downing a military helicopter in Jalisco in 2015 and attempting a spectacular, but unsuccessful, assassination of Mexico City Police Chief Omar García Harfuch, who is now Mexico's federal security secretary.

It recruited aggressively, experimenting with new ways to reach potential members online, and generated revenue through fuel theft, extortion and timeshare fraud, among other activities.

Oseguera Cervantes was killed during an attempt to capture him, as his followers attempted to fight off Mexican troops.

Mexico's Defense Department said in a statement that the army launched an operation in the southern part of Jalisco state to capture Oseguera Cervantes, involving the Mexican Air Force and special forces.

The cartel counterattacked, and in the ensuing confrontation, federal forces killed four members of the criminal group, and wounded three others, including its leader, who died later during transfer by air to Mexico City, according to the statement.

Three soldiers were injured and two people were detained in the action. Rocket launchers capable of shooting down aircraft and destroying armored vehicles were seized at the scene.

Oseguera Cervantes' will help Mexico's government show results to the U.S., which is pressuring its neighbor to pursue drug cartels more aggressively. Both countries said intelligence collaboration helped lead to Sunday's operation.

Oseguera Cervantes was facing multiple indictments in the United States and the U.S. State Department had offered a $15 million reward for information leading to his arrest. The Trump administration designated his cartel and others foreign terrorist organizations a year ago.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, who was U.S. ambassador to Mexico during the first Trump administration, applauded the operation via X, writing “The good guys are stronger than the bad guys. Congratulations to the forces of law and order in the great Mexican nation.”

Mike Vigil, former chief of international operations for the DEA, said Mexico had sent a “a strong message to Donald Trump's administration that they are fighting aggressively and effectively” against the most powerful cartels. He added that “the majority of the information came from the Mexican armed forces and all credit goes to Mexico.”

It's not clear who will succeed Oseguera Cervantes, or if any one person can.

The Jalisco cartel has a presence in at least 21 of Mexico's 32 states and is active in almost all of the United States, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. But it is also a global organization and the loss of its leader could be felt well beyond Mexico.

“El Mencho controlled everything, he was like a country's dictator,” Vigil said.

His absence could slow the cartel's rapid growth and expansion and leave it initially weakened against the Sinaloa cartel on several fronts where they or their proxies are fighting. The Sinaloa is locked in its own internal power struggle, however, between the sons of “El Chapo” and the faction loyal to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who is in U.S. custody.

Vigil said Mexico should seize the moment to launch “an effective frontal assault based on intelligence.”

“This is a big opportunity for Mexico and the United States if they work together,” he said.

Security analyst David Saucedo said that if relatives of Oseguera Cervantes take control of the cartel, the violence seen Sunday could continue. If others take power, they could be more willing to turn the page and continue operations.

The greatest fear would be that the cartel turns to indiscriminate violence. They could decide to “launch narcoterrorism attacks ... and generate a scenario similar to what Colombia lived in the 1990s,” a full on attack against the government “car bombs, assassinations and attacks on aircraft.”

National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after authorities reported that the Mexican Army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Ginette Riquelme)

A charred vehicle sits at a damaged supermarket in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the death of the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Alejandra Leyva)

Pedestrians walk past a charred vehicle after it was set on fire, on a road in Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the death of the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Armando Solis)

A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle that was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, amid reports the Mexican Army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Armando Solis)

A police officer stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire, on a road in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the death of the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Alejandra Leyva)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump 's State of the Union address on Tuesday is likely to be a test run of the message that Republicans will give to voters in November's elections for control of the House and Senate.

The president and his party appear vulnerable, with polls showing that much of America distrusts how Trump has managed the government in his first year back in office. In addition, the Supreme Court last week struck down one of the chief levers of his economic and foreign policy by ruling that he lacked the power to impose many of his sweeping tariffs.

Though Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues, his intensifying threats that he may launch military strikes on Iran over its nuclear program are casting a shadow over the address.

Here are a few things to watch as Trump tries to make his case:

Trump swept back into the White House on promises to bring down prices and restore order to immigration in America. But on both issues, public sentiment has turned against him.

Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of his economic leadership and just 38% support him on immigration, according to the latest AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs survey. Those low numbers show the country is still fretting about the costs of groceries, housing and utilities, a problem compounded by Trump's whipsawing use of tariffs. They also show how the public was disturbed by videos of violent clashes with protesters, including two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents.

Since his party passed a massive tax cut bill last year, Trump has yet to unveil major new policy ideas on the economy. In recent speeches, he has largely offered the public reruns about his tax cuts, plans to reduce mortgage rates and a new government website for buying prescription drugs.

The Supreme Court ruling against many of Trump's far-reaching global tariffs on Friday and the president vowing to use other means to forge ahead with import taxes will only prolong the economic turmoil over trade and prices.

“I think it makes it even more important that the speech really focus on the economy," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist.

Conant said between the tariff ruling and a Commerce Department report on Friday that showed U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year, "the president needs to bolster his economic message.”

The administration is trying to make the case that despite Trump's rewiring of global trade and tax cuts, the economy is still struggling because of choices made in 2021 and 2022 by his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden. But Trump is also seeking to take credit for positive signs in the current economy, such as recent stock market gains.

“Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.

Of course, Trump made the same kind of argument in his address to a joint session of Congress last year, invoking the name “Biden” 13 times.

Despite the president's America First credo, his aggressive approach abroad over the past year has sparked concerns among some of his supporters about whether he should spend more time focusing on voters at home.

Trump, who has made it clear he covets a Nobel Peace Prize, is likely to use the speech to remind Americans of his attempts to try to broker peace accords in global conflicts.

But in many respects, the president hasn't been extending olive branches. Within the past year, his administration has launched strikes in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran, along with an ongoing campaign of lethal military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America. Trump also shocked the world in January with a surprise raid to capture Venezuela's then-leader, Nicolás Maduro, and floated the idea of using force to seize Greenland.

In recent weeks, as he pressures Iran, Trump has bolstered the U.S. military's presence in the Middle East. But he has yet to make a clear case to voters about what his actions overseas mean for their lives.

He might even minimize foreign policy in his State of the Union despite his belief that it's been a major success.

“For as much as foreign policy has dominated his last year in office, this speech will mostly focus on the economy,” Conant predicted.

Vice President JD Vance offered a similar prediction, saying in an interview Saturday on Fox News Channel that in the speech, “you’re going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back into our country, of reshoring manufacturing, of all these great factories that are being built.”

He said Trump would also speak about lowering energy costs.

The State of the Union used to be about recapping accomplishments and seeking to unite the country, but it increasingly reflects divisions in society.

“What you’re going to expect is some version of a campaign speech in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the globe,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Trump supporters might cherish the moment in 2020 when the president mid-speech reunited a military family. He also bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host and author who died in 2021 due to complications from lung cancer. But that moment turned off Democrats who saw Limbaugh as a destructive figure in political media.

Trump is delivering the speech, but his audience sitting in the House chamber has a big role, too. When Trump delivered his 2020 State of the Union, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically ripped up a copy of the speech afterward, overshadowing much of what Trump said.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has said in a letter to colleagues that “it is important to have a strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber,” indicating that some members might choose not to attend in protest to Trump. But there is also the possibility of Democrats razzing Trump as Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, did in 2025, leading him to be removed from the chamber.

If Trump in his speech lays out a fuller case for why he is using other mechanisms in federal law to continue his tariffs, Conant said it will be interesting to see the reaction from lawmakers.

“I think that any House Republicans that don't applaud his tariffs are going to be featured prominently on the telecast,” he said.

While some presidential phrases endure, much of the rhetoric in State of the Unions is forgettable. And with Trump — who is known for veering off-script — there's a good chance that a stray comment or a social media post could step on his message.

Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, noted in an email that people hear the president talk all of the time, so the State of the Union has lost much of its luster.

A State of the Union “only matters in moments when the country is undergoing a great trauma — a war, an attack, a global crisis — and a president and Congress want to speak in a (mostly) united voice to the country,” he said. “That’s not what we are experiencing now.”

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One shortly before takeoff, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

President Donald Trump dances after speaking at a rally at Coosa Steel Corporation in Rome, Ga., Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)