LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar 4, 2026--
Global smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by around 7% year-on-year in 2026 according to Omdia’s latest outlook. This projection based on Q1 memory price assumptions, which indicate that pricing pressure and constrained supply will begin to ease in the second half of the year. The global smartphone market will face significant challenges in 2026 as tightening memory supply and elevated pricing place increasing cost pressures for vendors. Memory now accounts for a significantly larger share of the smartphone bill of materials (BOM), eroding vendor profitability, particularly in entry-level devices. Since 4Q25, smartphone manufacturers have already begun raising retail prices in order to maintain profit margins. However, sustained price increases are likely to weaken demand, particularly in price-sensitive emerging markets.
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Further memory pressure and geopolitical volatility raise the risk of over 15% smartphone shipment decline in 2026
Downside risks to the forecast remain significant. If memory prices continue rising into the second half of 2026 due to tight supply and increasing AI server demand locking in production capacity, smartphone vendors will face further cost escalation across both entry-level and premium devices. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could amplify macroeconomic volatility including higher energy prices, freight costs, and foreign-exchange instability, further weakening consumer upgrades in price-sensitive markets. Under this downside scenario, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by more than 15% in 2026, potentially exceeding the 12% contraction recorded in 2022.
“Rising memory costs and macro headwinds are expected to impact smartphone demand unevenly across price segments,” said Zaker Li, Principal Analyst at Omdia. “Devices priced below $100 are forecast to decline by nearly 31% year-on-year in 2026, reflecting the severe margin pressure vendors face in ultra-low-cost segments, which are highly sensitive to even modest shifts in the macroeconomic environment. Smartphones in the $100–$399 range, which represent the core volume bands of the global market, are also expected to contract as rising memory prices push retail prices upward in price-sensitive markets. These segments are largely served by entry-focused vendors that rely heavily on LPDDR4X memory, operate with thin margins, and often have lower priority in the memory supply chain, leaving them more exposed to cost inflation and potential supply shortages. As a result, vendors concentrated in these price tiers are expected to face production constraints and shipment reductions, with many projected to experience double-digit declines in 2026.”
“In contrast, the premium segment is expected to remain relatively resilient despite rising component costs. Devices priced above $800 are forecast to grow by around 4% in 2026, supported by stronger brand positioning and greater pricing flexibility. Apple maintains a dominant presence in the high-end market and benefits from strong supply chain relationships and higher margins that help absorb component cost inflation. Samsung also benefits from vertical integration and internal semiconductor capabilities, which provide greater security of supply and priority access to key components. While Samsung still utilizes LPDDR4X in some models and faces similar cost pressures, its supply chain advantages reduce the risk of significant shortages.”
“The evolving cost environment is reshaping dynamics across the global smartphone supply chain,” added Li. “As entry-level smartphone demand weakens, suppliers of mid- and low-end components – including chipsets, camera modules, and other key parts – are likely to face declining orders and intensified pricing pressure. Vendors are already responding by simplifying product configurations and tightening BOM costs. At the same time, volatility in memory pricing is pushing brands toward shorter-term production planning and smaller order volumes, increasing operational pressure across the supply chain. Smaller ODMs and specialized component suppliers will also face growing consolidation risks as margins compress and demand becomes more concentrated among leading brands. In this environment, vendors will need to prioritize higher-value product innovation and disciplined production planning, while channel partners strengthen inventory management and demand forecasting to navigate slower replacement cycles and shifting consumer demand.”
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Omdia, part of TechTarget, Inc. d/b/a Informa TechTarget (Nasdaq: TTGT), is a technology research and advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets grounded in real conversations with industry leaders and hundreds of thousands of data points, makes our market intelligence our clients’ strategic advantage. From R&D to ROI, we identify the greatest opportunities and move the industry forward.
Smartphone shipment forecast by price band & annual growth, 2025 vs 2026F
Worldwide smartphone shipments forecast and growth, 2014 to 2026F
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. and Israel's joint war in Iran has already upended travel across the Middle East, stranding tens of thousands of people. And the future is anything but certain.
Experts stress that flights scheduled in the coming days and weeks could continue to see disruptions — causing ripple effects globally, especially as the war widens with retaliatory strikes in the Gulf states. Beyond the Middle East, airports in the Gulf serve as critical hubs connecting travelers going to Europe, Africa and Asia.
Amid airspace closures across the region, many carriers have been forced to either cancel flights or shift to longer routes. That's straining operating costs and ticket prices, both of which could become more expensive if airlines have to pay more for fuel the longer the war drags on. In the near future, experts recommend postponing unnecessary travel if possible, checking refund or insurance policies and, most importantly, monitoring safety advisories.
“This is not a normal delay story. This is a conflict zone airspace story,” said Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation — stressing that halted traffic and guidance from carriers, airports and governments may shift each day, if not by the hour. “Travelers should absolutely expect uncertainty.”
Here's what travelers should know about upcoming trips.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks over the weekend, retaliatory strikes and other developments have unfolded rapidly. Iran says hundreds of people have been killed in the country. For travelers across the region, experts stress the importance of following safety guidance and updates from government officials.
A handful of governments have also issued travel advisories and emergency evacuation orders. The U.S. State Department on Monday urged all U.S. citizens to immediately leave Iran and Israel, as well as Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen using any available commercial transportation — and Secretary of State Marco Rubio pleaded for the media to publicize ways to help Americans evacuate. Meanwhile, countries like China, Italy, France and Germany moved to organize evacuation efforts for their citizens.
Experts like Shahidi say travelers should monitor these travel advisories from governments and embassies to make sure they have the latest information. And because so many people are still stranded amid swaths of cancellations and airspace closures, he added that it’s wise to reconsider or rebook upcoming trips, if possible.
“If travel is optional, consider postponing it,” Shahidi said. “But if it’s necessary, then make sure that you get refundable or changeable fares.”
Travelers should also monitor updates from airports and airlines. Long-haul carriers Etihad Airways and Emirates, based in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, along with Doha-based Qatar Airways all temporarily suspended certain routes — citing airspace closures and safety requirements.
Many airlines are taking refund requests or offering free rebooking — but such options are often limited to specific dates or routes, so it's important for travelers to check carriers' individual websites for more information. For future trips, buying refundable tickets now may provide more flexibility.
Beyond what individual airlines can offer, some may also be seeking travel insurance. But it's important to read the fine print, particularly the exclusions listed under specific policies.
“Acts of war and civil unrest are typically excluded because they’re unpredictable," said Suzanne Morrow, CEO of travel insurance agency InsureMyTrip. Consumers could still buy coverage for delays, she added, but travel insurance is “designed to make you whole," and if an airline does everything to rebook you or offers a refund, you may not have an added claim.
Christina Tunnah, of World Nomads Travel Insurance, reiterates that the majority of her firm's policies excludes coverage for losses resulting from acts of war, although someone might be able to get compensation in certain scenarios — such as if they purchase a “cancel for any reason” plan. Still, the traveler would have to cancel within a certain time frame.
Tunnah adds that once an event is known, it's unlikely to be covered. So if a consumer has not already purchased traveler insurance, many insurers may have added restrictions to impacted destinations.
Beyond cancellations, many carriers are now taking longer routes to avoid closed airspace. Shahidi noted that includes not only closures stemming from this current war but also previous conflicts worldwide.
Navigating these different conflict zones has become increasingly difficult for airlines, because longer routes can be more expensive. It's industry standard for carriers to pay “overflight fees” when flying through other countries' airspace — which there could be more of now. And, of course, longer flights need more fuel.
“Those costs will be passed on to the passengers,” explained Bryan Terry, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy. If the conflict continues, he said, travelers should “anticipate that some carriers will likely impose fuel surcharges" or increase existing fees.
Passengers have already reported seeing sky-high ticket prices. Experts say those immediate hikes more likely reflect supply and demand as thousands of flights were canceled in recent days. But the costs of those longer routes — paired with oil prices that have already spiked since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks — could trickle down to consumers further ahead.
The price of crude oil is a key component for jet fuel, which accounted for about 30% of airlines' operating costs as of 2024, according to research from the International Air Transport Association.
Many routes within the next week are completely sold out or have exorbitant prices for last remaining seats. The market currently shows those costs, while still elevated, are lower for trips booked further out, Terry notes — but, again, if the war drags on or worsens, “those conditions could change at a moment’s notice.”
People arrive at the airport after being evacuated from the Middle East on a government flight, in Prague, Czech Republic, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)
A bomb dropped from an Israeli jet falls before hitting a building in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburb, near Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
A bomb dropped from an Israeli jet falls before hitting a building in Dahiyeh, southern suburb of Beirut, near Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
A display in the arrivals terminal of the Henri Coanda International Airport shows cancelled flights originating in Middle East countries, in Otopeni, Romania, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
Emirates airplanes are parked at the Dubai International Airport after its closure in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
Passengers whose flights were cancelled, wait at the departure terminal of Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, as many airlines canceled flights due to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
A traveler checks departure times as many flights are cancelled at Beirut Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, as many airlines canceled flights due to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
