Who will win at the Oscars? AP’s film writers make their predictions

The Oscars just got more interesting. With a few late-game curveballs, courtesy of the Actor Awards, the broadcast of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, may have more drama and heartbreak than expected even just last week.

As members of the film academy fill out their ballots before Thursday's 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle are making their final predictions for the top awards too.

Nominees: “Bugonia”; “F1”; “Frankenstein”; “Hamnet”; “Marty Supreme”; “One Battle After Another”; “The Secret Agent”; “Sentimental Value”; “Sinners”; “Train Dreams”

BAHR: “One Battle After Another” was coasting along the rolling hills of awards season as the clear front-runner, winning top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, right up until Sunday’s Actor Awards. In this tortured, inherently flawed metaphor that I’m already regretting, I guess “Sinners,” which won best ensemble, is Willa’s car?

The point is, suddenly, the Oscars don’t seem so buttoned up after all. I still think it’s going to be “One Battle After Another,” though. The award previously known as SAG has diverged five times in the past 10 shows; the PGAs are a slightly better predictor, having gone another way only twice in 10 years. And either way, it’ll be a win for theatrical moviegoing and Warner Bros., no matter how uncertain their futures may be.

COYLE: I love your metaphor, just as long as it doesn’t careen onto the “F1” racetrack. This has always felt like a two-horse race, only “Sinners” didn’t have much to show for itself until those big wins at the Actor Awards. That Michael B. Jordan also won gives me some pause. The breakthrough for “Sinners” came at just the right time, when Oscar voters were sending in their ballots. So I think “Sinners” has an excellent chance of pulling off the upset. But ultimately I think “One Battle After Another” wins. It has the more meaningful precursors and feels powerfully of the moment.

Nominees: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”; Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”; Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”; Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”; Emma Stone, “Bugonia”

COYLE: This is the easiest call of the night. Buckley will win her first Oscar, and while I think she’s excellent in “Hamnet,” this feels as much about rewarding one of the most talented and natural actors of a generation. Since she emerged in 2019’s “Wild Rose,” Buckley has been heading toward this. Plus, making people cry bucket loads is still an effective way to win an Oscar.

BAHR: You were definitely on Buckley watch earlier than most. I’m pretty sure I saw “Wild Rose” on your recommendation. And I agree, the Oscar is basically hers already.

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”; Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”; Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”; Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

BAHR: For a while there, it seemed like Chalamet had it in the bag, especially after he lost last year and we were punished with that Adrien Brody speech. But then there was the BAFTAs shocker where none of the Hollywood guys won, followed by Jordan’s truly heartfelt speech at the Actor Awards that might have tipped the scale in his direction. Personally, I don’t think there’s a wrong choice in this group, but it will be an interesting case study in campaigning if Jordan ends up taking the statue, which I think he will.

COYLE: I suspect many in the academy would like to go back a year and give Chalamet the award, but their regret might not be enough to get him across the finish line this year. It’s been 22 years since we had a best actor winner (Sean Penn for “Mystic River”) who didn’t win at either the BAFTAs or with the actors guild. Jordan is going to win, and I think it will be a highlight of the night. Unlike others in this category, Jordan has really been under-honored. This is his first Oscar nomination.

Nominees: Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”; Amy Madigan, “Weapons”; Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”; Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

COYLE: This should be close. Three nominees have notable wins so far: Madigan with the Actor Award, Mosaku at the BAFTAs and Taylor at the Globes. If it were my choice, it’d be Taylor in a landslide. She’s absurdly blistering in “One Battle After Another.” Madigan, a well-liked veteran in a category full of younger performers, would seem to have the slight edge after her win, and charming speech, at the Actor Awards. But I’m going to say Taylor takes it. Madigan has the disadvantage of being the sole nominee from her film. Being such a key part of what I think will be the best picture winner will carry Taylor to the upset.

BAHR: Madigan’s Oscar win might have been the nomination from an organization that doesn’t have the best track record with horror. I agree that it’s Taylor we’ll be seeing on that stage. Long live Perfidia Beverly Hills. No disrespect to Aunt Gladys.

Nominees: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”; Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”; Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”; Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

BAHR: Everyone in this category has gotten some kind of recognition this season. Elordi won at Critics Choice, Skarsgård at the Globes, Penn at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards, Del Toro at the New York Film Critics Circle and Lindo at the NAACP Image Awards. It seems like it is down to Penn, who has two Oscars, and Lindo, who has none. Again, a speech from the Actor Awards might have sealed it: Penn wasn’t there, and Lindo got to shine on behalf of the ensemble.

COYLE: I think it’s gotta be Penn. Winning at both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards suggests to me he’s got this. The bigger question may be: Will he go? Penn’s skipped the Oscar nominee luncheon and most ceremonies so far. It’s been a while since we had an absent winner. Remember Anthony Hopkins in the COVID Oscars? This is a good category but it’s a crime that Tim Key wasn’t nominated for “The Ballad of Wallis Island.”

Nominees: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”; Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”; Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”; Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”

COYLE: Anderson is going to win. He won at the Directors Guild Awards and I think there’s an industrywide sense that he’s overdue to win this, or any Oscar. (Anderson has never won one.) Coogler will win this one day, though.

BAHR: Now I’m just thinking about how good a presenter Tim Key would be. But yes, it’s Anderson’s year and I hope they get someone special to give it to him.

Nominees: “The Perfect Neighbor”; “The Alabama Solution”; “Come See Me in the Good Light”; “Cutting Through Rocks”; “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

BAHR: After a few years in a row of the documentary prize going to internationally focused films spotlighting major global issues (“Navalny,” “20 Days in Mariupol,” “No Other Land”), this might be the year when the focus shifts back to problems in this country, exemplified by “The Alabama Solution” and “The Perfect Neighbor.” I think the prize goes to the latter. Geeta Gandbhir made a riveting film about Florida’s “stand your ground” laws that was actually widely seen thanks to its Netflix platform.

COYLE: I expect “The Perfect Neighbor” to win, too. But this remains one of the quirkiest branches of the academy. Most years, my favorite nonfiction films aren’t showing up here. This year, some notable absences include “Afternoons of Solitude,” “Secret Mall Apartment” and “My Undesirable Friends.”

Nominees: “The Secret Agent,” Brazil; “It Was Just an Accident,” France; “Sentimental Value,” Norway; “Sirāt,” Spain; “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia

COYLE: This is a stacked category, and it still leaves out my top pick, Park Chan-wook’s masterfully dark Korean satire “No Other Choice.” I’m picking Joachim Trier’s exquisitely tender “Sentimental Value” for the win, but I don’t feel good about it. The more timely “The Secret Agent” might be the better call. Either way, Jafar Panahi’s Iranian revenge drama “It Was Just an Accident” is the one that really deserves to win.

BAHR: I totally agree on “It Was Just an Accident.” I'm similarly waffling about how this category will play out, but I'll throw my pick to “The Secret Agent,” which, like “Sentimental Value,” also got a best picture nomination and an acting nod (“Sentimental Value” notably got three). But the thing that makes it stand out to me is that “The Secret Agent” was also nominated for the casting prize alongside “Sinners,” “One Battle,” “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme.” Also, that Brazil contingent is strong.

Nominees: “Arco,” “Elio,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain,” “Zootopia 2”

BAHR: You know it’s gonna be, gonna be “KPop,” it’s gonna be, gonna be. Sorry, it’s such a bop. And though I might live in a “KPop Demon Hunters” household, I also don’t think it’s a bad choice. It’s not often this award actually goes to a movie that truly had an impact on the culture.

COYLE: By the most important Oscar metric, movie-themed Halloween costumes, “KPop” will win this in a landslide. Any movie that sends hordes upon hordes of young girls into the streets dressed as K-pop-singing demon hunters deserves an Oscar.

Delroy Lindo, from left, Miles Canton, Wunmi Mosaku, Omar Benson Miller, Jayme Lawson, Li Jun Li, Lola Kirke, Francine Maisler, Michael B. Jordan, and Jack O'Connell accept the award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture for "Sinners" during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

NEW YORK (AP) — No quick dispatching of disease investigators. No televised news conference to inform the public. No timely health alerts to doctors.

In the midst of a hantavirus outbreak that involves Americans and is making headlines around the world, the U.S. government's top public health agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has been uncharacteristically missing in action, according to a number of experts.

To President Donald Trump, "We seem to have things under very good control," as he told reporters Friday evening.

To experts, the situation aboard a cruise ship has not spiraled because, unlike COVID-19 or measles or the flu, hantavirus does not spread easily. It has been health experts in other countries, not the United States, who have been dealing primarily with the outbreak in the past week.

“The CDC is not even a player," said Lawrence Gostin, an international public health expert at Georgetown University. “I've never seen that before.”

Not until late Friday did CDC actions accelerate.

Health officials confirmed the deployment of a team to Spain's Canary Islands, where the ship was expected to arrive early Sunday local time, to meet the Americans onboard. They said a second team will go to Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska as part of a plan to evacuate American passengers from the ship to a quarantine center. Also, the CDC issued its first health alert to U.S. doctors, advising them of the possibility of imported cases.

The CDC's diminished role in this outbreak is an indicator the agency is no longer the force in international health or the protector of domestic health that it once was, some experts said.

The hantavirus outbreak is “a sentinel event” that speaks to “how well the country is prepared for a disease threat. And right now, I’m very sorry to say that we are not prepared,” said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, chief executive officer of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Early last month, a 70-year-old Dutch man developed a feverish illness on a cruise ship traveling from Argentina to Antarctica and some islands in the South Atlantic. He died less than a week later. More people became sick, including the man's wife and a German woman, who both died.

Hantavirus was first identified as a cause of sickness of one of the cases on May 2. The World Health Organization swung into action and by Monday was calling it an outbreak. About two dozen Americans were on the ship, including about seven who disembarked last month and 17 who remained on board.

For decades, the CDC partnered with the WHO in such situations. The CDC acted as a mainstay of any international investigation, providing staff and expertise to help unravel any outbreak mystery, develop ways to control it and communicate to the public what they should know and how they should worry.

Such actions were a large reason why the CDC developed a reputation as the world's premier public health agency.

But this time, the WHO has been center stage. It made the risk assessment that has told people the outbreak is not a pandemic threat.

“I don’t think this is a giant threat to the United States,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center. But how this situation has played out “just shows how empty and vapid the CDC is right now,” she said.

The current situation comes after 16 tumultuous months during which the Trump administration withdrew from the WHO, has restricted CDC scientists from talking to international counterparts at times and embarked on a plan to build its own international public health network through one-on-one agreements with individual countries.

The administration has laid off thousands of CDC scientists and public health professionals, including members of the agency's ship sanitation program.

As this was playing out, Trump's health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said he was working to “restore the CDC’s focus on infectious disease, invest in innovation, and rebuild trust through integrity and transparency.”

The CDC has not been completely silent on hantavirus.

The agency on Wednesday issued a short statement that said the risk to the American public is “extremely low,” and described the U.S. government as “the world’s leader in global health security.”

Said Nuzzo: “Not only was that not helpful, it actually does damage because a core principle of public health communications is humility.”

The CDC's acting director, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, posted a message on social media that the agency was lending its expertise in coordinating with other federal agencies and international authorities. Arizona officials this week said they learned from the CDC that one of the Americans who left the ship — a person with no symptoms and not considered contagious — had already returned to the state. WHO officials said the CDC has been sharing technical information.

The CDC also is “monitoring the health status and preparing medical support for all of the American passengers on the cruise,” Bhattacharya wrote.

But federal health officials have mostly been tight-lipped, declining interview requests.

In interviews this week, some experts made a comparison with a 2020 incident involving the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship docked in Japan that became the setting of one of the first large COVID-19 outbreaks outside of China.

The CDC sent personnel to the port, helped evacuate American passengers, ran quarantines, shared genetic data on the virus, coordinated with the WHO and Japan, held public briefings and rapidly published reports “that became the world’s reference data on cruise ship COVID transmission,” said Dr. Tom Frieden, a former CDC director.

Some aspects of the international response to the Diamond Princess were criticized, and it did not halt the outbreak or stop COVID-19’s spread across the world. But some experts say it was not for the CDC's lack of trying.

“The CDC was right on top of it, very visible, very active in trying to manage and contain it,” Gostin said, while the agency's work now is delayed and subdued.

Instead of working with nearly all of the world's nations through the WHO, the Trump administration has pursued bilateral health agreements with individual nations for information sharing, public health support, and what it describes as “the introduction of innovative American technologies.” Roughly 30 agreements are currently in place.

That's not sufficient, Gostin said. “You can't possibly cover a global health crisis by doing one-on-one deals with countries here and there,” he said.

Associated Press writers Ali Swenson in New York, Darlene Superville in Washington and Susan Montoya Bryan in Albuquerque, New Mexico, contributed to this report.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Passengers on the the hantavirus-stricken cruise ship, MV Hondius, watch epidemiologists board the boat in Praia, during their voyage to Spain's port of Tenerife, May 6, 2026. (AP Photo)

Workers set up temporary shelters in the area where passengers from the MV Hondius cruise ship are expected to arrive at the port of Granadilla in Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, Saturday, May 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)

Crew members of the hantavirus-stricken cruise ship, MV Hondius, wait their turns for a first interview with epidemiologists, during the voyage to Spain's port of Tenerife, May 6, 2026. (AP Photo)

Health workers in protective gear evacuate patients from the MV Hondius cruise ship into an ambulance at a port in Praia, Cape Verde, Wednesday, May 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Misper Apawu)

A Spanish Civil Guard officer inspects the area where passengers from the MV Hondius cruise ship are expected to arrive at the port of Granadilla in Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain, Saturday, May 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)