Russia sits back as the Iran war escalates, expecting long-term gains

MOSCOW (AP) — As U.S. and Israeli missiles and bombs rain on Iran, Russia has responded with words of indignation but no visible action to support its Middle Eastern ally.

That cautious stance is driven by President Vladimir Putin's focus on Ukraine and his apparent hope that the Iran war will play into Moscow’s hands by boosting its oil revenues and eroding Western support for Kyiv.

Putin sent his condolences to Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, condemning the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last weekend as a “cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”

While Moscow’s failure to help another ally after the 2024 ouster of former Syrian ruler Bashar Assad and January's U.S. arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro highlighted the limits to its influence, the Kremlin expects to reap benefits from the Iran war.

Russia already is profiting from a surge in energy prices over the war's disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy facilities in Gulf countries. If hostilities escalate, a continued windfall would help fill Moscow's coffers to finance military operations in Ukraine and patch the budget deficit.

The Kremlin also hopes the Iran war will distract global attention from Ukraine, deplete Western arsenals and force the U.S. and its NATO allies to reduce military support for Kyiv.

Hours after the war began Feb. 28, the Russian Foreign Ministry denounced the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran as a “deliberate, premeditated, and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state, in direct violation of the fundamental principles and norms of international law.”

A week into the war, Putin had a call with Pezeshkian, saying Moscow wants to see a quick end to hostilities. But before that, he had a series of calls with Gulf leaders in an apparent bid to cement ties with the countries that are increasingly important for Moscow as part of the OPEC+ grouping controlling global oil prices and key trade partners helping bypass Western sanctions.

The Kremlin said Putin will convey to Tehran the Gulf leaders’ “deep concern about the strikes on their infrastructure” and “make every effort to facilitate at least minor easing of tensions.”

In a subsequent call with his Iranian counterpart, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “underscored the priority of ensuring the safety of civilians and protecting civilian infrastructure in all the countries of the region.”

Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, noted that “Russia has actually been quite an effective operator within the Middle East.” He said that as the war escalates, many regional powers may have reason "to look a little bit more to Moscow.”

While Moscow and Tehran signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty in January 2025, their relationship had a troubled past and remained tinged with rivalry.

Even though Russia and Iran shared opposition to the Western-led “rules-based order,“ “Iran was always something of a strategic frenemy” to Russia, Galeotti said in a recent podcast.

Tensions ran high between Moscow and Tehran during the Cold War, when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a staunch U.S. ally. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the 1979 Islamic Revolution, branding the U.S. as the “Great Satan,” he labeled the Soviet Union as the “Lesser Satan.”

Russia-Iran ties warmed quickly after the USSR’s 1991 breakup as Moscow became an important trade partner and helped build Iran’s first nuclear power plant in Bushehr. When Syria's civil war erupted in 2011, Russia and Iran pooled efforts to shore up Assad’s government but failed to prevent the swift collapse of his rule in December 2024.

After Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, Tehran provided Russia with Shahed drones and later licensed their production in Russia.

But even as it has built ties with Iran, Russia also has remained friendly with Israel, angering many in the Iranian leadership who were suspicious of Moscow’s intentions.

“Russia’s relationship with Iran, despite the latter’s staunch opposition to the U.S., has always been complex and challenging,” Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said in a commentary.

When the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Russian officials underlined that their “strategic partnership” didn’t envisage mutual military assistance in case of aggression.

Asked Thursday whether Moscow could go beyond rhetoric and provide Iran with weapons, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that it has received no such requests from Tehran.

On Friday, two officials familiar with U.S. intelligence told The Associated Press that Russia has provided Iran with information that could help Tehran strike American warships, aircraft and other assets in the region.

The people, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that the U.S. intelligence has not uncovered that Russia is directing Iran on what to do with the information.

Peskov said Friday that Russia is "in dialogue with the Iranian side, with representatives of the Iranian leadership, and will certainly continue this dialogue.” Pressed on whether Russia has provided any military or intelligence assistance to Tehran since the war's start, he refrained from comment.

While Khamenei’s killing revived talk of Russia’s failure to protect an ally, some observers warned against exaggerating the damage to Putin’s authority.

Galeotti noted that Russia and Iran "were always very pragmatic allies rather than anything else.”

“Iran is a rival for authority in the Middle East and indeed within the South Caucasus,” he said. “If this regime doesn’t actually fall, but has its wings clipped, from Russia’s point of view that actually might make it a rather more amenable temporary strategic partner.”

China — a key customer for Iranian oil — will likely boost imports of Russian crude as hostilities expand. After pressuring India to halt its imports of Russian oil, the U.S. on Thursday issued a 30-day waiver allowing its refineries to buy those supplies currently at sea. Turkey could boost its natural gas imports from Russia if supplies from Iran are disrupted.

Sam Greene, a professor at King’s College London, also observed that “the idea that Putin suffers when he loses allies — whether Assad, Maduro or Khamenei — exists entirely in the heads of Western analysts and has no basis in observable fact.”

There's zero evidence "that he cares, that it affects his authority at home or his legitimacy abroad,” he said in a post on X.

Putin will not risk his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump to help Iran, Greene said, arguing that “as miffed as Putin might be personally, he’s not going to throw his relationship with Trump under the bus.”

The president, he said, "is Putin’s greatest source of leverage over Europe. He’ll keep his eye on the ball.”

As the U.S. and its allies quickly use up their arsenals of Patriot interceptors to fend off Iranian missiles targeting Israel and the Gulf countries, Russia can only be gleeful over the scenario.

“A prolonged conflict would not only draw attention away from Ukraine but would also redirect crucial resources like missile defense systems to the Persian Gulf,” Poletaev said.

Noted Galeotti: “The more Patriots that get used up in this conflict ... the fewer available to the Americans generally and more uncomfortable they will feel about passing or selling any of them to the Ukrainians.”

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Aamer Madhani in Washington contributed.

FILE - In this picture released by the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin greet each other on July 19, 2022, during a meeting in Tehran, Iran. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP, File)

FILE - A black plume of smoke rises from a warehouse in the industrial area of Sharjah City following reports of Iranian strikes in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri, File)

FILE - Government supporters gather in mourning after state TV announced the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

FILE - Smoke rises behind the Azadi (Freedom) monument in Tehran, Iran, on March 3, 2026, following the U.S.-Israeli military attack. (Davoud Ghahrdar/ISNA via AP, File)

FILE - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, center left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, center right, arrive at a ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on Jan. 17, 2025. (Vyacheslav Prokofyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

ABOARD THE PAPAL PLANE (AP) — U.S.-born Pope Leo XIV pushed back Monday on President Donald Trump’s broadside against him over the U.S.-Israel war in Iran, telling reporters that the Vatican’s appeals for peace and reconciliation are rooted in the Gospel, and that he doesn’t fear the Trump administration.

“To put my message on the same plane as what the president has attempted to do here, I think is not understanding what the message of the Gospel is,” Leo told The Associated Press aboard the papal plane en route to Algeria. “And I’m sorry to hear that but I will continue on what I believe is the mission of the church in the world today.”

History’s first U.S.-born pope stressed that he was not making a direct attack against Trump or anyone else with his general appeal for peace and criticisms of the “delusion of omnipotence” that is fueling the Iran war and other conflicts around the world.

“I will not enter into debate. The things that I say are certainly not meant as attacks on anyone. The message of the Gospel is very clear: ‘Blessed are the peacemakers,’” Leo said.

“I will not shy away from announcing the message of the Gospel and inviting all people to look for ways of building bridges of peace and reconciliation, and looking for ways to avoid war any time that’s possible.”

Speaking to other reporters, he added: “I’m not afraid of the Trump administration or of speaking out loudly about the message of the Gospel, which is what the Church works for.''

“We are not politicians. We do not look at foreign policy from the same perspective that he may have,'' the pope said, adding, ”I will continue to speak out strongly against war, seeking to promote peace, promoting dialogue and multilateralism among states to find solutions to problems.

"Too many people are suffering today, too many innocent people have been killed, and I believe someone must stand up and say that there is a better way,'' he said.

Trump delivered an extraordinary broadside against Leo on Sunday night, saying he didn't think the U.S.-born global leader of the Catholic Church is “doing a very good job” and that “he's a very liberal person," while also suggesting the pontiff should “stop catering to the Radical Left.”

Flying back to Washington from Florida, Trump used a lengthy social media post to sharply criticize Leo, then kept it up after deplaning, in comments on the tarmac to reporters.

“I’m not a fan of Pope Leo,” he said.

Trump's comments came after Leo suggested over the weekend that a “delusion of omnipotence” is fueling the U.S.-Israel war in Iran. While it’s not unusual for popes and presidents to be at cross purposes, it’s exceedingly rare for the pope to directly criticize a U.S. leader — and Trump’s stinging response is equally uncommon, if not more so.

“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” the president wrote in his post, adding, “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon."

Italian politicians across the spectrum showed their solidarity with Leo. Premier Giorgia Meloni sent a message of support for his peace mission while the leader of the main opposition party, Elly Schlein, was more direct, calling Trump’s attacks “extremely serious.”

Trump repeated that sentiment in comments to reporters, saying, “We don’t like a pope who says it’s OK to have a nuclear weapon.”

Later, Trump posted a picture suggesting he had saint-like powers akin to those of Jesus Christ. Wearing a biblical-style robe, Trump is seen laying hands on a bedridden man as light emanates from his fingers, while a soldier, a nurse, a praying woman and a bearded man in a baseball cap all look on admiringly. The sky above is filled with eagles, an American flag and vaporous images.

All of that came after Leo presided over an evening prayer service in St. Peter’s Basilica on Saturday, the same day the United States and Iran began face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan during a fragile ceasefire, with Vice President JD Vance leading the U.S. delegation. Vance is Catholic and recently released a book about his faith.

During his evening prayer service, the pope didn’t mention the United States or Trump by name, but his tone and message appeared directed at Trump and U.S. officials, who have boasted of U.S. military superiority and justified the war in religious terms.

Leo, who is on an 11-day trip to Africa starting Monday — has previously said that God “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.” He's also referenced an Old Testament passage from Isaiah, saying that “even though you make many prayers, I will not listen — your hands are full of blood.”

Before the ceasefire, when Trump warned of mass strikes against Iranian power plants and other infrastructure and that “an entire civilization will die tonight,” Leo described such sentiments as “truly unacceptable.”

In his social media post on Sunday night, however, Trump went far beyond the war in Iran in criticizing Leo.

The president wrote, “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States.” That was a reference to the Trump administration having ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.

“I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do,” Trump added, referencing his 2024 election victory.

He also suggested in the post that Leo only got his position “because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump.”

“If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican,” Trump wrote, adding, “Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church!”

In his subsequent comments to reporters, Trump remained highly critical, saying of Leo, “I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime I guess” and adding, “He’s a very liberal person.”

Archbishop Paul S. Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, issued a statement saying he was “disheartened” by Trump's comments.

“Pope Leo is not his rival; nor is the Pope a politician. He is the Vicar of Christ who speaks from the truth of the Gospel and for the care of souls,” Coakley said.

The Italian Bishops' Conference expressed regret over Trump's words, and underlined that the pope "is not a political counterpart, but the successor of Peter, called to serve the Gospel, truth and peace.''

In the 2024 election, Trump won 55% of Catholic voters, according to AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate. But Trump's administration also has close ties to conservative evangelical Protestant leaders and has claimed heavenly endorsement for the war on Iran.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Americans to pray for victory “in the name of Jesus Christ.” And, when Trump was asked whether he thought God approved of the war, he said, “I do, because God is good — because God is good and God wants to see people taken care of.”

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Winfield reported from aboard the papal plane.

Pope Leo XIV speaks to journalists aboard his flight bound for Algiers’ Houari Boumédiène International Airport on Monday, April 13, 2026, at the start of an 11-day apostolic journey to Africa. (Alberto Pizzoli/Pool Photo via AP)

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Md., Sunday, April 12, 2026, after he returned from Miami. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Pope Leo XIV delivers the Regina Coeli prayer in St. Peter's Square at the Vatican, Sunday, April 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Md., Sunday, April 12, 2026, after he returned from Miami. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)