Kazakhstanis vote in referendum on new constitution that would cement president's grip on power

Voters in Kazakhstan headed to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Central Asia’s largest country.

The proposal merges the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and gives the president the right to appoint key government officials with parliament's approval, including the restoration of the ​post of vice president.

“The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers,” Mario Bikarski, senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told The Associated Press. “There is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, which these reforms are unlikely to address.”

If the constitutional changes pass, a new body, the People’s Council, will be created alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.

This second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev. Analysts say it could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.

The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits.

“If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like ... then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Associated Press. “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”

Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.

The proposed new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

“What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.

Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.

“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in the capital, Astana, on Thursday.

The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has failed, or “simply hasn’t had time,” to significantly influence public sentiment, analysts say.

“There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” said analyst Umarov. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”

The vote is taking place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.

Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.

“Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” said Bikarski. “Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on our predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.”

Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia, and Morton reported from Thessaloniki, Greece.

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

A man poses for a photo as he casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev walks to cast his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, a woman casts her ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

FILE - Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the plenary session of the Russia–Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum in Uralsk, Kazakhstan, via videoconference during a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Residents of Vilnius were told to take shelter and Lithuania's president and prime minister were taken to safe locations Wednesday because of an alarm over drone activity near the border with Belarus, underlining jitters on NATO's eastern flank over incursions related to Russia's war with Ukraine.

An emergency announcement from the military told people in the Vilnius region to “immediately head to a shelter or a safe place.”

The alert, which lasted for about an hour, also led to the closure of the airspace over Vilnius Airport. President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene were taken to shelters, and there was also an evacuation order at Lithuania's parliament, the Seimas, the BNS news agency reported.

It was the first major alert that sent residents and political leaders in a European Union and NATO capital rushing to shelters since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“Based on the parameters we saw, it’s most likely either a combat drone or a drone designed to deceive systems and lure targets,” Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Center, said in a news briefing. “The electronic countermeasures here can’t tell us whether an explosive device detonated or not. It’s very, very difficult."

Based on the altitude and speed, it was probably a drone, he said, "though we can’t say at this stage exactly what kind of drone it was or where it was launched from.”

Lithuania borders Russia-allied Belarus to the east and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave to the west. Wednesday's alert came after the military said it detected drone activity in Belarus, but no drones were sighted over Lithuania.

On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte commended the alliance’s reaction to several drone incidents in recent days, saying that they had been met with “a calm, decisive and proportionate response.” Rutte said: “This is exactly what we planned and prepared for,” and he blamed Russia’s war on Ukraine for the problem.

In recent months, Ukrainian drones aimed at Russia have crossed or come down in NATO territory on numerous occasions. Western officials have blamed what they say is likely Russian electronic jamming of the drones. Russia, meanwhile, has renewed threats that it would retaliate if Ukrainian drones are launched from Baltic countries or if those countries are complicit in their use against Russia.

On Tuesday evening, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys wrote on social media that “Russia is deliberately redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace while waging smear campaigns” against Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. “It’s a transparent act of desperation — an attempt to sow chaos and distract from a simple reality: (Ukraine) is hitting Russian military machine hard.”

Budrys' comment came hours after a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine apologized for that “unintended incident,” without specifying what had happened.

Last week, Latvia’s government collapsed following an argument over the handling of multiple incidents involving stray drones suspected to be from Ukraine. The defense minister was forced to quit after his party withdrew its support for him, and the prime minister then resigned. The governing coalition had been under strain for months over several other issues.

In a recent escalation of aerial attacks, Russia and Ukraine have sometimes fired hundreds of drones a day at each other.

Ukraine’s air force said Wednesday that it shot down 131 out of 154 drones that Russia launched overnight. The ones that got past air defenses killed three civilians and wounded 18 others, including two children, officials said.

Ukraine, meanwhile, continued its aerial campaign against Russia’s vital oil industry, with the General Staff reporting its drones struck a major Russian oil refinery and a pipeline pumping station overnight.

Russian media reports also indicated that a chemical plant in the southern Stavropol region was hit and caught fire, although local officials didn’t confirm any direct hit.

The U.K. government, a strong supporter of Ukraine's war effort, has loosened strict sanctions on Russian oil refined into diesel and jet fuel in third countries as prices rise due to the Iran war.

The waiver begins Wednesday and reflects growing supply concerns over certain fuels due to the effective blockade of the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

That step comes two days after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Washington was granting a 30-day extension for countries to import Russian oil that is already in tankers at sea, a move that is meant to reduce the oil supply shortages.

The announcement marked a continued policy reversal by the Trump administration, which had previously said the sanctions on Russian oil would resume. Originally announced in early March, the temporary waiver on the sanctions was first renewed in April.

Geir Moulson in Berlin, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv, Ukraine and Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Portugal contributed to this report.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks during a media conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Wednesday, May 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

People take shelter in an underground car park during an air raid alert in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, May 20, 2026. (Vygintas Skaraitis/Lrytas via AP)

People take shelter in an underground car park during an air raid alert in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, May 20, 2026. (Vygintas Skaraitis/Lrytas via AP)

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Services on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, rescue workers put out a fire of a residential building damaged after a Russian strike on Konotop, Ukraine. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

The phone shows the received message "The Lithuanian military reports: "AIR DANGER. Hurry to cover or a safe place without delay, take care of your loved ones, wait for further recommendations. We will inform you about the end of the danger in a separate message", in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, May 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)

The phone shows the received message "The Lithuanian military reports: "AIR DANGER. Hurry to cover or a safe place without delay, take care of your loved ones, wait for further recommendations. We will inform you about the end of the danger in a separate message", in Vilnius, Lithuania, Wednesday, May 20, 2026. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)