Voters in Kazakhstan head to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Central Asia’s largest country.
The proposal merges the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and gives the president the right to appoint all government officials, including the restoration of the post of vice-president.
“The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers,” Mario Bikarski, Senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia Analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told The Associated Press. “There is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, which these reforms are unlikely to address.”
If the constitutional changes pass, a new body, the People’s Council, will be created alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.
This second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev. Analysts say they could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.
The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits.
“If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like ... then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Associated Press. “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”
Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.
The proposed new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.
“What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.
Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.
“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in Astana on Thursday.
The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has failed, or “simply hasn’t had time,” to significantly influence public sentiment, analysts say.
“There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” said analyst Umarov. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”
The vote is taking place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.
Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.
“Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” said Bikarski. “Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on our predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.”
FILE - Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the plenary session of the Russia–Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum in Uralsk, Kazakhstan, via videoconference during a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
CAIRO (AP) — Arab Gulf states reported new missile and drone attacks Sunday after Iran threatened to widen its campaign as the war in the Middle East entered its third week.
Israel and the United States attacked Iran on Feb. 28, saying they were striking nuclear and military sites and encouraging the Iranian people to rise against their leaders. Iran has responded with attacks against Israel and neighboring Gulf states. The war, which shows no signs of ending soon, has upended global air travel, disrupted oil exports from the region and sent fuel prices rising across the world.
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates warned residents on Sunday that they were working to intercept incoming projectiles, a day after Iran called for the evacuations of three major UAE ports, threatening for the first time a neighboring country’s non-U.S. assets.
Iran earlier accused the U.S. of using “ports, docks and hideouts” in the UAE to launch strikes on Kharg Island, home to the main terminal handling Iran’s oil exports, without providing evidence. The UAE and other Gulf countries that host U.S. bases have denied allowing their land or airspace to be used for military operations against Iran.
Iranian strikes have killed at least a dozen civilians in Gulf states, most of them migrant workers. In Iran, the International Committee for the Red Cross said more than 1,300 people have been killed so far. That includes 223 women and 202 children, according to Iranian Health Ministry figures reported by Mizan, the judiciary's official news agency.
In Israel, 12 people were reported dead by Iranian missile fire, said the national rescue service Magen David Adom. At least 13 members of the U.S. military have also been killed since the war began, including seven in combat and six who died in a plane crash over Iraq last week.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he hoped allies would send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis deepened, with over 820 people killed, according to the Ministry of Health, and 850,000 displaced as Israel launched waves of strikes and sent additional troops into southern Lebanon.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the U.S. attacked Kharg Island and Abu Musa Island from two locations in the UAE, Ras Al Khaimah and a place “very close to Dubai,” calling that dangerous and saying Iran “will try to be careful not to attack any populated area” there.
U.S. Central Command said it had no response to Iran’s claim. A diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s president, Anwar Gargash, rejected accusations that the U.S. used its land or air as a base for its attacks on Kharg Island.
Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Arab Gulf neighbors during the war, but it has said it was targeting U.S. assets, even as hits or attempts were reported on civilian ones such as airports and oil fields.
Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was closed only to “those who are attacking us and their allies.”
As global anxiety soars over oil prices and supplies, Trump said Saturday that he hopes China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and others send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe.” Britain, in response, said it was discussing with allies a “range of options” to secure shipping.
Araghchi, in a social media post, urged neighbors to “expel foreign aggressors” and described Trump’s call as “begging.”
Iran’s joint military command has reiterated its threat to attack U.S.-linked “oil, economic and energy infrastructures” in the region if the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure is hit.
The U.S. Department of Defense on Saturday identified six service members who died when the military refueling aircraft they were aboard crashed Thursday while supporting operations against Iran.
The service members were Maj. John A. Klinner, 33; Capt. Ariana G. Savino, 31; Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, 34; Capt. Seth R. Koval, 38; Capt. Curtis J. Angst, 30; and Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, 28, according to U.S. officials.
The crash in western Iraq followed an unspecified incident involving two aircraft in “friendly airspace,” according to U.S. Central Command. The other plane landed safely.
A missile struck a helipad inside the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad late Saturday. No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. The embassy complex, one of the largest U.S. diplomatic facilities in the world, has been repeatedly targeted by rockets and drones fired by Iran-aligned militias.
The State Department again warned citizens in Iraq to leave “now,” and by land since commercial flights were not available. It noted that Iran and Iran-aligned militia groups “may continue to target” U.S. citizens, interests and infrastructure.
Metz reported from Ramallah, West Bank, and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writers Sally Abou AlJoud in Beirut and Tia Goldenberg in Washington contributed to this report.
Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Smoke rises from the U.S. embassy building in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Ali Jabar)
Mourners react during the funeral ceremony for Gen. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Defense Council and a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader who was killed in a strike, at the courtyard of the Imamzadeh Saleh shrine in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Two men ride their motorbike past a billboard of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in downtown Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
Fire and plumes of smoke rise from an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)
A man chants slogan while the body of Gen. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Defense Council and a senior adviser to the Supreme Leader who was killed in a strike, is being buried at the courtyard of the Imamzadeh Saleh shrine in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
