Kazakhstanis vote in referendum on new constitution that would cement president's grip on power

Voters in Kazakhstan headed to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Central Asia’s largest country.

The proposal merges the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and gives the president the right to appoint key government officials with parliament's approval, including the restoration of the ​post of vice president.

“The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers,” Mario Bikarski, senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told The Associated Press. “There is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, which these reforms are unlikely to address.”

If the constitutional changes pass, a new body, the People’s Council, will be created alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.

This second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev. Analysts say it could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.

The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits.

“If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like ... then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Associated Press. “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”

Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.

The proposed new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

“What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.

Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.

“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in the capital, Astana, on Thursday.

The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has failed, or “simply hasn’t had time,” to significantly influence public sentiment, analysts say.

“There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” said analyst Umarov. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”

The vote is taking place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.

Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.

“Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” said Bikarski. “Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on our predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.”

Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia, and Morton reported from Thessaloniki, Greece.

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

A man poses for a photo as he casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev walks to cast his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, a woman casts her ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

FILE - Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the plenary session of the Russia–Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum in Uralsk, Kazakhstan, via videoconference during a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

LONDON (AP) — The top official behind the decision to approve the appointment of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to Washington said Tuesday that he felt political pressure from Prime Minister Keir Starmer's office to rush through the selection, despite security concerns.

Former Foreign Office head Olly Robbins said that Starmer's office had a “dismissive attitude” to security vetting of the scandal-tainted Mandelson. The testimony increases the heat on Starmer, who is facing calls to resign over the appointment of Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, to one of the U.K.'s most important diplomatic posts.

The prime minister fired Robbins last week after the revelation that Mandelson was approved for the job in January 2025 against the recommendation of the government's security vetting agency.

Robbins said that the concerns about Mandelson didn't relate to his relationship with Epstein. He declined to say when questioned by lawmakers what led the government's vetting agency to flag him as a potential security risk.

Mandelson had to resign twice from senior posts in previous Labour Party governments because of scandals over money or ethics. A separate background report prepared before he was appointed ambassador flagged potential business links to Russia and China as a concern.

Robbins said that the vetting agency considered Mandelson a “borderline case” and was “leaning toward recommending against” giving him security clearance. Robbins decided to clear him anyway.

Starmer has called it “staggering” that Foreign Office officials failed to tell him about the security concerns, which he says he only found out about last week.

But Robbins said that the rules bar details of the sensitive vetting process from being shared except in “exceptional circumstances.”

Robbins told the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee that there was an “atmosphere of pressure” coming from Starmer’s office to approve the appointment so Mandelson could be in the post at the start of the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Starmer announced the choice of Mandelson in December 2024, before intensive security checks were carried out. Robbins said that there was “a very, very strong expectation” that Mandelson “needed to be in post and in America as quickly as humanly possible” and “a generally dismissive attitude” to the security vetting from Starmer's office.

Robbins said that he was “very conscious” that refusing Mandelson security clearance would have caused “a real problem for the government and a problem for the country” in relations with the Trump administration.

Robbins insisted that his department “did not bow to that pressure.” He said that his decision to grant Mandelson clearance was based on security advice that the risks could be managed.

Robbins declined to identify any individuals as being behind the pressure. Starmer's chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, a protégé of Mandelson, resigned in February, saying he took responsibility for the decision to appoint Mandelson.

The leader of the opposition Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, said that Robbins’ testimony “is devastating to Keir Starmer.”

She said that “it is now absolutely clear that ‘full due process’ was not followed. Keir Starmer has misled" the House of Commons — generally considered a resigning offense.

Starmer, who has denied misleading lawmakers, acknowledged on Monday that he made the wrong judgment when he picked Mandelson for the job. But Starmer said that he would have withdrawn the appointment if he’d known about the failed security vetting.

Starmer fired Mandelson in September, nine months into the job, when new details emerged about his friendship with Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died in prison in 2019.

The U.K. leader has ordered a review into any security concerns arising from Mandelson’s access to sensitive information while ambassador.

Critics say the Mandelson appointment is more evidence of bad judgment by a prime minister who has made repeated missteps since he led Labour to a landslide election victory in July 2024.

He picked Mandelson as ambassador, despite being warned by his staff that Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein exposed the government to “reputational risk.”

But Mandelson's expertise as a former European Union trade chief and contacts among global elites were considered assets in dealing with the Trump administration.

The scandal has caused gloom among lawmakers in Starmer’s center-left Labour Party, already anxious about its dire poll ratings. Starmer already defused one potential crisis in February, when some Labour lawmakers urged him to resign over the Mandelson appointment.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said that he had raised concerns about the choice of ambassador, but didn’t think Starmer should resign over the debacle.

“If every time a prime minister made a mistake they resigned, we would shuttle through prime ministers like nobody’s business,” Miliband told the BBC.

Mandelson is under police investigation for suspected misconduct in public office after a trove of Epstein-related documents released by the U.S. Justice Department in January included emails suggesting that Mandelson had passed on sensitive — and potentially market-moving — government information to Epstein in 2009, after the global financial crisis.

British police launched a criminal investigation and arrested Mandelson in February. Mandelson has previously denied wrongdoing and hasn’t been charged. He doesn't face allegations of sexual misconduct.

FILE - Olly Robbins walks on Whitehall in Westminster, London, Jan. 17, 2019. (Dominic Lipinski/PA via AP, File)

FILE - Olly Robbins walks on Whitehall in Westminster, London, Jan. 17, 2019. (Dominic Lipinski/PA via AP, File)

Peter Mandelson is seen with his dog outside his home in London, Monday, April 20, 2026 as Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a showdown in Parliament over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.(AP Photo/Kin Cheung)

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, Monday, April 20, 2026 to face a showdown in Parliament over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.(AP Photo/Alastair Grant)