Kazakhstanis vote in referendum on new constitution that would cement president's grip on power

Voters in Kazakhstan headed to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power in Central Asia’s largest country.

The proposal merges the Kazakhstani parliament’s two chambers into one and gives the president the right to appoint key government officials with parliament's approval, including the restoration of the ​post of vice president.

“The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers,” Mario Bikarski, senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told The Associated Press. “There is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, which these reforms are unlikely to address.”

If the constitutional changes pass, a new body, the People’s Council, will be created alongside parliament, empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums. Its members will be appointed entirely by the president.

This second constitutional change in four years was initiated by Tokayev. Analysts say it could pave the way for him to retain power after his term expires.

The 72-year-old Tokayev, a former Soviet official and Kazakhstani diplomat who previously served at the U.N., is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029. Analysts believe Tokayev could use the referendum to reset presidential term limits.

“If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like ... then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Associated Press. “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”

Leaders of several former Soviet republics, including Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits.

The proposed new constitution also stipulates that marriage will no longer be a union of two people, but rather a union of a man and a woman. Analysts say this provision was introduced in the new constitution as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

“What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.

Tokayev, who has maintained a delicate balance between Moscow and the West since the imposition of sanctions against Russia, explains the constitutional changes as a response to the need to make quick decisions in a rapidly changing world.

“This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in the capital, Astana, on Thursday.

The opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures and, in the month since the referendum was announced, has failed, or “simply hasn’t had time,” to significantly influence public sentiment, analysts say.

“There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” said analyst Umarov. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”

The vote is taking place at a difficult time for Kazakhstan, where inflation reached 11.7% in February and tax increases have fueled public discontent.

Analysts say economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests akin to nationwide unrest in 2022, triggered by hikes in fuel prices, in which dozens of protesters and police were killed — something Tokayev is trying to contain by consolidating power in his own hands.

“Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” said Bikarski. “Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on our predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.”

Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia, and Morton reported from Thessaloniki, Greece.

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

A man poses for a photo as he casts his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, on Sunday, March 15, 2026. (AP Photo)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev walks to cast his ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

In this photo released by Kazakhstan's President Press Office, a woman casts her ballot at a polling station during a referendum on a new constitution, in Astana, Kazakhstan, Sunday, March 15, 2026. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office via AP)

FILE - Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addresses the plenary session of the Russia–Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum in Uralsk, Kazakhstan, via videoconference during a meeting with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly declined Tuesday, despite a rally on Wall Street boosted by easing oil prices, as regional investors still weighed the impact from the recent joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 63,369.85, as the U.S. dollar inched up to 157.63 Japanese yen from 157.18 yen. The euro cost $1.1511, little changed from $1.1514. The dollar was trading at 160-yen levels before the intervention.

Some analysts said the effectiveness of such an intervention remains uncertain as it doesn't address the fundamental economic reasons behind the currency fluctuations, including inflation, interest rates and the relative strengths of the economies.

“A U.S.-backed operation carries far more signaling weight than Tokyo acting alone, and the pledge of further action will give speculators pause. But any U.S. contribution will probably be constrained by size,” a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, noted the latest effort could have some impact because it appears to signal a real change in monetary policy rather than just a one-time defensive move.

“This is an historic and meaningful development for the yen, which materially improves confidence in our mildly bullish call for the currency,” he said.

South Korea's Kospi inched down less than 0.1% to 6,254.76. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 1.2% to 9,128.60. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.5% to 25,881.99, while the Shanghai Composite declined 0.2% to 3,802.61.

On Wall Street, share prices rallied Monday after easing oil prices helped calm worries that inflation could get even worse. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% and is just 0.1% below its record set earlier this summer.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which measures a narrower slice of the U.S. stock market, climbed 693 points or 1.3% to an all-time high, while the Nasdaq composite leaped 2.1%.

In energy trading in Asia early Tuesday, benchmark U.S. crude gained 50 cents to $80.84 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 63 cents to $84.40 a barrel.

A day earlier, it had dropped after U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he decided to hold off on new strikes against Iran at the urging of allies in the region.

Brent’s price careened between $72 and $102 last month as worries rose and fell over the war in Iran and when oil tankers would be allowed to freely exit the Persian Gulf again to deliver crude to customers worldwide.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury sank to 4.68% from 4.75% late Friday. It remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran.

Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama

AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed to this report.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Thursday, July 30, 2026, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Currency traders watch monitors near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Currency traders work at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)