NEW YORK (AP) — Financial markets muddled through the first two months of the year. Then came the war.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil is above $100 for the first time since the summer of 2022 and gasoline prices have soared. That followed an extended period where the price of oil largely stayed between $60 and $70.
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Fuel transport truck driver Terry Bowden refills at a gas station, Monday, March 30, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Patrick McKeon, center, works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
A Chevron gas station in Alameda, Calif. displays gas prices on March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)
People work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Monday, March 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
The biggest concern for global stock markets early in 2026 was artificial intelligence — whether some companies were spending too much on it and whether others would be rendered obsolete by the technology. Investors have probably forgotten their concerns about President Donald Trump's spat with the European Union over his suggestion the U.S. take over Greenland. Now, investors' attention is squarely on how long the Iran war will last, how much inflation could jump and what that could mean for the economy. Dramatic intraday swings in indexes like the S&P 500 have been common.
The uncertainty brought on by the war complicates interest-rate decisions for the Federal Reserve, which has kept rates steady this year after reducing them three times at the end of last year. Cutting rates further would help the economy, but it could also put upward pressure on inflation. Keeping them high would help fight inflation, but also put pressure on economic growth.
Here's a look at the swings in the markets in March:
Oil prices have been dictating the U.S. stock market’s sharp swings since the Iran war began. Brent crude, the benchmark for about three-quarters of global crude oil, has shot from roughly $70 per barrel to as high as $119 at times. Investors have flipped back and forth between hopes for a fairly quick end to the war and worries that a prolonged conflict will keep oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf out of global markets, which could create a brutal blast of inflation.
As February came to a close, drivers in many parts of the U.S. were paying under $3 for a gallon of gas. As of Tuesday, the nationwide average had topped $4 for the first time since 2022.
The jump in diesel, used in many freight and delivery trucks, is more pronounced, with the average for a gallon now $5.45, up from about $3.76 a gallon before the war began, according to AAA.
“Americans (are) spending hundreds of millions of dollars more on gasoline every day,” said Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at fuel-tracking service GasBuddy.
The U.S. stock market came into 2026 coming off three straight years of strong gains. Many international markets outpaced it in 2025 after trailing behind for a few years.
With a drop of nearly 4.6%, the S&P 500 had its worst quarterly performance since 2022. The Nasdaq composite, with a heavy allotment of technology stocks, on Thursday closed down more than 10% from the all-time high it set in October, a steep-enough fall that professional investors call it a “correction.”
Not surprisingly, energy stocks have been among the best performers in the S&P 500 for the month and the quarter. Exxon Mobil had its largest quarterly gain, according to FactSet. Other strong performers include Occidental Petroleum and Valero Energy.
Perhaps it's fitting that the stock market ended the month with another outsized move, this time to the upside on renewed hopes the war could end sooner than later. Such hopes, though, have built up and then vanished quickly several times already so far during the war.
Typically investors flock to bonds and other safe-haven assets when a global event threatens the economy. But in this case, the chance of a spike in inflation due to the surge in oil prices has caused a sell-off in bonds and a corresponding jump in their yields.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at just 3.97% in late February but ballooned as high as 4.44% before falling back a bit. That surge has helped push up rates for mortgages and other loans for U.S. households and businesses. Traders now see just a slim chance that the Fed will cuts rates even once this year.
What comes next is hard to predict. President Donald Trump has pivoted between talk of ending the war and threats of escalating it to target Iran's energy infrastructure. The Iranians have downplayed Trump's claims of progress in diplomatic talks.
Iran maintains a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway leading out of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported during peacetime. As long as that remains the status quo, analysts expects oil and stock markets to continue to experience heightened volatility.
Fuel transport truck driver Terry Bowden refills at a gas station, Monday, March 30, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Patrick McKeon, center, works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
A Chevron gas station in Alameda, Calif. displays gas prices on March 23, 2026. (AP Photo/Terry Chea)
People work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Monday, March 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
NEW YORK (AP) — Four people connected to a company hired by New York City to operate homeless shelters for migrants were arrested Tuesday as part of a federal public corruption investigation that is also examining a City Council member and a top aide to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.
The charges Tuesday focused on two leaders of the nonprofit, BHRAGS Home Care Corp., who are accused of stealing more than $1.3 million from the taxpayer-backed organization, and two subcontractors who the indictment says paid bribes and kickbacks to the men in exchange for contracts worth millions.
Investigators are also probing whether City Council Member Farah Louis and her sister Debbie Louis, an aide to Hochul, accepted bribes related to the appropriation of city funds to the nonprofit, according to a copy of a search warrant viewed by The Associated Press.
The Louis sisters were not among the four people arrested on Tuesday. Debbie Louis was placed on leave after the governor's office learned of the investigation last week, a Hochul spokesperson said.
The indictment describes multiple layers of corruption within BHRAGS, a service provider that has received nearly $200 million in contracts from the city's Department of Homeless Services since 2022.
Prosecutors said the company's executive director, Roberto Samedy, and its former board chairman, Jean Ronald Tirelus, siphoned money from the nonprofit, including $800,000 earmarked for "economic growth and affordable housing” in distressed Brooklyn neighborhoods.
The pair also received more than $200,000 in kickbacks and bribes in exchange for steering contracts worth millions of dollars to businesses controlled by Edouardo St. Fort and Miguel Jorge, the indictment said.
Tirelus, Samedy and Jorge all pleaded not guilty through their attorneys in court on Tuesday and were released on bond. Tirelus’ lawyer, Todd Spodek, said he “categorically disputes the charges and looks forward to clearing his name at trial.” Samedy's attorney, Seth Zuckerman, also said his client was intent on “clearing his name and getting back to the important work BHRAGS is doing in the community.”
St. Fort, a former New York City police sergeant, appeared in a Massachusetts courtroom Tuesday and was also released on bond. He did not enter a plea and did not respond to questions as he left the courtroom.
The case was initially referred to authorities by the city's Department of Social Services, which raised concerns about BHRAG's payments to St. Fort's security company, Fort NYC Security, according to a spokesperson for the agency.
Joseph Nocella, the U.S. attorney in Brooklyn, said the defendants worked together “to loot public funds from an organization devoted to serving vulnerable New Yorkers.”
The indictment did not outline any wrongdoing by others. All four of the men arrested Tuesday were mentioned in a search warrant, signed March 19, seeking communications between the nonprofit, the Louis sisters and Edu Hermelyn, a political consultant.
Hermelyn is the husband of state Assembly member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who chairs the Brooklyn Democratic Party.
Messages left for Farah Louis, Debbie Louis and Edu Hermelyn were not returned.
In a statement, a spokesperson for BHRAGS said the nonprofit has served New Yorkers for more than 50 years “with integrity and the highest ethical standards, and we take the allegations against Mr. Samedy seriously.”
The company has long focused on providing at-home health care to the sick and elderly, but expanded its mission in recent years to include homeless services. Their pivot came as the city's existing shelter system was stretched thin by the influx of asylum seekers under the former mayor, Eric Adams.
Hermelyn served as a senior advisor to Adams, but resigned over questions about whether his position as a district leader for the Democratic Party violated rules forbidding dual government roles. A spokesperson for his previous employer, Mercury Public Affairs, said he had left the firm.
Tirelus and Samedy were charged with wire fraud, embezzlement, and bribery-related offenses and face up to 20 years in prison if convicted. St. Fort and Jorge were charged with federal program bribery and related charges, and face up to 10 years each.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the city would “definitely be looking into” existing contracts that the city has with BHRAGS.
The existence of a search warrant naming Farah and Debbie Louis doesn’t necessarily indicate that prosecutors plan to bring criminal charges against them, only that investigators persuaded a magistrate judge to allow them to dig deeper and seize evidence.
Nevertheless, the governor’s office said Debbie Louis has been placed on leave, and a spokesperson for the City Council said the legislative body “takes any potential misconduct extremely seriously.”
“New Yorkers deserve confidence in their government,” the spokesperson said. “It is essential that the federal investigation proceed fairly and expeditiously to bring this matter to a resolution.”
Associated Press reporter Michael Casey contributed to this report from Boston.
Roberto Samedy leaves a courthouse, in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Jean Ronald Tirelus leaves a courthouse in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Roberto Samedy leaves a courthouse, in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Jean Ronald Tirelus leaves a courthouse in New York, Tuesday, March 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Edouardo St. Fort, right, leaves federal court after making a first appearance in connection with a New York corruption case, Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Casey)
Edouardo St. Fort, right, leaves federal court after making a first appearance in connection with a New York corruption case, Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Casey)
FILE - New York Councilwoman Farah Louis speaks during a celebration ceremony for the refurbished George Floyd statue, after it was vandalized following its Juneteenth installation, July 22, 2021, in the Brooklyn borough of New York. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews, File)
