ASEAN+3 regional growth forecast at 4.0 pct for 2026, 2027: AMRO report

The ASEAN+3 region is expected to post economic growth of 4.0 percent in both 2026 and 2027, according to the annual regional economic outlook report released Monday by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

The 2025 growth rate for ASEAN+3, comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states and China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, came in at 4.3 percent, higher than previously anticipated. The better-than-expected performance was driven largely by AI-driven semiconductor demand, which serves as a key engine of export growth, said the report titled ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026.

The report highlights profound structural changes underway in the ASEAN+3 economy. The region has now become one of the largest markets in the world, accounting for 28 percent of global final demand. At the same time, its reliance on the U.S. market has declined markedly, with the regional economy transitioning from a "manufacturing location serving external demand" to a regional market driven by domestic demand, according to the report.

The AMRO report also warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supplies significantly increase downside risks to the regional economic outlook.

The impact of the Middle East conflict on the region will depend largely on its duration. A prolonged conflict could trigger wider and more persistent shocks -- not only in energy markets but also across industrial inputs, logistics, food prices, tourism, and cross-border remittances, according to the report.

AMRO chief economist He Dong said that while Middle East tensions are already putting pressure on the region's energy supplies, the ASEAN+3 is better equipped to handle energy shocks than in the past. On the one hand, the regional economy has seen improved energy efficiency, with a reduction in oil dependence. On the other hand, inflation in the region is currently relatively low, and most economies still have ample policy space to respond to shocks, said the expert.

AMRO advises regional economies to maintain policy flexibility to guard against risks such as stagflation. Central banks should preserve financial market stability and take timely action if inflation continues to rise. Meanwhile, fiscal policy should focus on supporting vulnerable groups while avoiding the inflationary pressures and fiscal risks that large-scale stimulus measures could bring.

ASEAN+3 regional growth forecast at 4.0 pct for 2026, 2027: AMRO report

About 840 million cross-regional passenger trips are estimated in China during the three-day Qingming Festival holiday which started on Saturday, a 6-percent increase compared with the same period of last year.

On the first day of the holiday alone, over 300 million cross-regional passenger trips were made, marking a 4.5-percent increase compared with the same period of last year. Notably, railway and expressway passenger volumes both hit record highs on the same day.

China's railway system is expected to handle 20.8 million passenger trips on Monday, the last day of the holiday, and the transportation sector has planned to operate an additional 1,369 passenger trains.

Railway authorities in cities such as Zhengzhou, Changchun, Wuhan, and Xi'an have added extra passenger trains, using a coupling mode for EMUs and supplementing with ordinary trains to meet the surging demand.

Many tourists choose to travel by car, as all expressways are toll-free for vehicles with up to seven seats during the holiday. As a result, expressways across the country, especially those in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta region, have witnessed surging traffic on Monday, with the toll-free period expected to end at midnight (24:00).

The civil aviation sector is expected to welcome 1.94 million passengers on the same day, and waterways are estimated to handle over 1.11 million passenger trips.

"On the first day of the holiday, the expressway network handled 62.67 million vehicle trips, including 14.68 million new energy vehicles. The surge in self-driving travel and cultural tourism consumption drove double-digit growth in spending at scenic spots, hotels, and car rentals. In addition, returning to hometowns for tomb-sweeping activities and in-depth rural tours have also brought vitality to rural areas, promoting the spread of consumption from central cities to rural areas," said Yang Yong, deputy head of the Transport Services Department of the Chinese Ministry of Transport.

Falling on Sunday this year, the Qingming Festival, or the Tomb-Sweeping Day, is a traditional Chinese festival for honoring the deceased and paying tributes to ancestors. The three-day holiday also provides a short break for Chinese citizens to enjoy outdoor activities and sightseeing in pleasant springtime temperatures.

840 mln cross-regional passenger trips estimated in China during Qingming Festival holiday