ASEAN+3 regional growth forecast at 4.0 pct for 2026, 2027: AMRO report

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ASEAN+3 regional growth forecast at 4.0 pct for 2026, 2027: AMRO report

2026-04-06 14:21 Last Updated At：04-08 10:55

The ASEAN+3 region is expected to post economic growth of 4.0 percent in both 2026 and 2027, according to the annual regional economic outlook report released Monday by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

The 2025 growth rate for ASEAN+3, comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states and China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, came in at 4.3 percent, higher than previously anticipated. The better-than-expected performance was driven largely by AI-driven semiconductor demand, which serves as a key engine of export growth, said the report titled ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook 2026.

The report highlights profound structural changes underway in the ASEAN+3 economy. The region has now become one of the largest markets in the world, accounting for 28 percent of global final demand. At the same time, its reliance on the U.S. market has declined markedly, with the regional economy transitioning from a "manufacturing location serving external demand" to a regional market driven by domestic demand, according to the report.

The AMRO report also warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global energy supplies significantly increase downside risks to the regional economic outlook.

The impact of the Middle East conflict on the region will depend largely on its duration. A prolonged conflict could trigger wider and more persistent shocks -- not only in energy markets but also across industrial inputs, logistics, food prices, tourism, and cross-border remittances, according to the report.

AMRO chief economist He Dong said that while Middle East tensions are already putting pressure on the region's energy supplies, the ASEAN+3 is better equipped to handle energy shocks than in the past. On the one hand, the regional economy has seen improved energy efficiency, with a reduction in oil dependence. On the other hand, inflation in the region is currently relatively low, and most economies still have ample policy space to respond to shocks, said the expert.

AMRO advises regional economies to maintain policy flexibility to guard against risks such as stagflation. Central banks should preserve financial market stability and take timely action if inflation continues to rise. Meanwhile, fiscal policy should focus on supporting vulnerable groups while avoiding the inflationary pressures and fiscal risks that large-scale stimulus measures could bring.

2026 APEC trade ministers' meeting concludes with fruitful results

The 32nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade Meeting concluded in east China's Suzhou on Saturday, yielding fruitful results and laying significant groundwork for the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in November.

The trade ministers' meeting focused on "building an open and predictable regional and multilateral economic and trade order" and "fostering new engines of innovative and dynamic trade and investment cooperation."

Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao briefed the media on the meeting's outcomes at a press conference.

Wang said the meeting issued a joint statement titled the Suzhou Statement, and approved the latest edition of the APEC Roadmap for Innovative, Competitive and Resilient Services.

All parties agreed to advance policy innovation and reform in services trade, build an open and predictable investment environment, improve regional trade facilitation and supply chain resilience, strengthen standards coordination, and enhance intellectual property protection, Wang told the media.

He also said that substantial progress was made on a framework document for regional digital trade cooperation and the ministers emphasized promoting inclusive AI development, strengthening AI-related trade, and bridging the digital divide to ensure shared benefits from digital transformation.

The minister noted that the outcomes of the meeting demonstrated strong cooperation willingness, highlighted an innovation-oriented approach, and reflected inclusiveness and shared benefits. "The fact that Asia-Pacific economies can come together, uphold the original aspiration of promoting trade and investment liberalization and facilitation while supporting economic growth and prosperity, and engage in in-depth discussions on the important issue of 'where multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation is headed,' fully demonstrates that open regionalism and true multilateralism enjoy broad support, and that mutual success and shared development serve the fundamental interests of all economies," Wang said.