A Malaysian policy expert has warned that Japan's removal of curbs on lethal arms export marks a "dangerous turning point," cautioning that surging military spending will erode the country’s economic foundations.
The Japanese government on Tuesday officially revised "the three principles on transfer of defense equipment and technology" and their implementation guidelines to allow overseas sales of weapons, including those with lethal capabilities, despite waves of large-scale protests, local media reported.
The revisions scrap rules that limit Japan's defense equipment exports to five non-combat categories, namely rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and mine sweeping.
Under the new policy, weapon exports will not require prior parliamentary approval. Instead, the government's National Security Council will make export-related decisions, with the Diet informed only after approval.
Speaking to China Media Group (CMG) on Tuesday, Lim Wen Jye, senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP), discussed the consequences of Japan’s revised arms export rules, warning they could erode trust and destabilize Asia’s growth.
He further said that Japan's surging defense spending would undermine its economy and public welfare, while emphasizing the critical role of trust in international relations.
Lim stressed that these changes represent a dangerous shift, accusing Japan of artificially manufacturing a climate of tension.
"I see this not just as a minor policy trick, but as a dangerous turning point. Japan is essentially shifting its national security strategy from defending its own homeland to enabling warfare abroad. By supplying offensive weapons to neighboring countries, Japan is artificially manufacturing a climate of confrontation," said the expert.
The policy shift coincides with a record-breaking defense budget. Earlier this month, Japan's House of Councillors approved a budget for fiscal 2026, with more than 9 trillion yen earmarked for defense-related purposes for the first time.
Last week, the country's Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi further announced that total defense-related spending for the period is expected to reach approximately 10.6 trillion yen.
Lim stressed that Japan is prioritizing "guns over butter," resulting in a severe strain on its economic fundamentals.
"Choosing guns is a severe overdraw on Japan own economic fundamentals. On one hand we see extreme fiscal fragility. About 60 percent of Japan's defense budget for the fiscal year of 2026 relies on the issuing of new government bonds. With Japan debt-to-GDP ratio already nearing 230 percent, this kind of non-productive military investment creates a massive crowding-out effect dragging down overall economic output. On the other hand, it is crucial deprivation of public welfare. When a country has sluggish domestic economics and declining public welfare, yet continues to expand militarily, it becomes a massive element of instability for the entire region," he said.
The expert also warned that Japan's current trajectory could undermine decades of regional growth, stressing that trust remains the bedrock of international relations.
"In international relations, trust is everything. If Japan keeps stepping back on historical issues, it will face a long-term trust problem in Asia. If the rules that keep our region secure are slowly weakening then the peace and prosperity of all of Asia could be at risk," Lim said.
Japan’s removal of arms export curbs marks dangerous turning point: expert
