The global oil market will remain imbalanced through 2027 despite any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy shipping, the European think tank Bruegel said Monday.
The report noted that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest energy supply shock in history.
In 2025, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supply.
Since shipping through the strait was disrupted, the International Energy Agency estimates the world has faced a daily shortfall of 12.8 million barrels, the largest supply gap on record. The report said that even if the strait reopens soon, restarting oil fields and redeploying tankers will take months, and the global oil market imbalance is expected to continue into 2027.
In this context, the report noted that Europe's dependence on imported oil could become a long-term development vulnerability.
The European Union relies on imports for 97 percent of its crude oil. European jet fuel inventories have already shrunk significantly.
Goldman Sachs and S and P Global, among others, hold pessimistic outlooks on Europe's summer jet fuel supply prospects.
European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027
European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027
