The global oil market will remain imbalanced through 2027 despite any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy shipping, the European think tank Bruegel said Monday.
The report noted that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest energy supply shock in history.
In 2025, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supply.
Since shipping through the strait was disrupted, the International Energy Agency estimates the world has faced a daily shortfall of 12.8 million barrels, the largest supply gap on record. The report said that even if the strait reopens soon, restarting oil fields and redeploying tankers will take months, and the global oil market imbalance is expected to continue into 2027.
In this context, the report noted that Europe's dependence on imported oil could become a long-term development vulnerability.
The European Union relies on imports for 97 percent of its crude oil. European jet fuel inventories have already shrunk significantly.
Goldman Sachs and S and P Global, among others, hold pessimistic outlooks on Europe's summer jet fuel supply prospects.
European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027
European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027
European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027
Several explosions were heard Tuesday night in the southern Iranian provinces of Hormozgan and Khuzestan, as the United States announced a new round of strikes against Iran, state-run IRIB news agency reported.
Six explosions were heard west of the port city of Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan province, and Khuzestan's provincial capital Ahvaz was struck by U.S. projectiles, it reported.
Separately, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported that Sirik County in Hormozgan province was targeted by U.S. airstrikes Tuesday night, noting the attack caused no casualties or material damage.
Three blasts were also heard in proximity to Qeshm Island in Hormozgan province, Mehr reported.
The U.S. Central Command said in a post on X on Tuesday that "at 3 p.m. ET today, forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."
The operation came shortly before the forces began the resumption of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
"U.S. forces resumed the naval blockade against vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas today at 4 p.m. Eastern Time," the U.S. Central Command said in a statement posted on X.
"There are currently more than 20 U.S. Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East. American forces remain vigilant, lethal, and ready," it said.
On Monday, the U.S. military announced a "third consecutive night" of strikes against Iran.
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said Tuesday its aerospace and naval forces have struck U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for U.S. attacks earlier in the day.
In a statement published on its official news outlet Sepah News, the IRGC said its forces, in a joint missile and drone operation, hit and destroyed U.S. weapon depots as well as vessel and helicopter parts at the Shaikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain.
The IRGC said its forces also struck the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, destroying and damaging a number of the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones.
The attacks were in retaliation for the U.S. strikes Tuesday afternoon against a number of the Iranian armed forces' coastal stations, the IRGC added.
It said its retaliation will continue as long as the United States keeps "committing crimes," warning that any U.S. attacks will be met with "surprising responses."
The latest developments came after days of clashes between Iran and the United States over the control of the Strait of Hormuz, despite a U.S.-Iran peace MoU signed in mid-June, under which the two sides were expected to begin negotiations within 60 days toward a final agreement.
U.S. launches additional round of strikes on Iran, IRGC says hit U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait
