European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027

The global oil market will remain imbalanced through 2027 despite any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy shipping, the European think tank Bruegel said Monday.

The report noted that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has severely disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest energy supply shock in history.

In 2025, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global supply.

Since shipping through the strait was disrupted, the International Energy Agency estimates the world has faced a daily shortfall of 12.8 million barrels, the largest supply gap on record. The report said that even if the strait reopens soon, restarting oil fields and redeploying tankers will take months, and the global oil market imbalance is expected to continue into 2027.

In this context, the report noted that Europe's dependence on imported oil could become a long-term development vulnerability.

The European Union relies on imports for 97 percent of its crude oil. European jet fuel inventories have already shrunk significantly.

Goldman Sachs and S and P Global, among others, hold pessimistic outlooks on Europe's summer jet fuel supply prospects.

European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027

European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027

European think tank forecasts oil market imbalance to persist through 2027

China's major steelmakers have showed stronger production capabilities in August, thanks to stabilized key raw material prices, an industry expert said on Tuesday.

Fu Jing, director of the Metallurgical Industry Information Center, made the remarks on the latest data of steel production in August during an interview with China Central Television (CCTV) in Beijing. According to the latest data released by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), major surveyed steel enterprises produced an average of 1.973 million tonnes of crude steel per day in the first 10 days of August, up 5.8 percent from the previous period.

The daily production of pig iron also experienced a synchronized upward trend, said the CISA.

"Due to high temperatures and rainfalls in summer, downstream demand for construction-related steel has remained relatively weak. Manufacturing steel demand has become more uneven across sectors. However, prices of raw materials, such as iron ore and coke, have structurally stabilized this month. So, the willingness of our steel production enterprises to produce has rebounded," said Fu.

The recovery was also supported by blast furnaces returning to active production after maintenance, directly driving up output of both crude steel and pig iron month on month, she added.

China’s steel output rises as raw material prices stabilize: expert