How Burnham's resounding victory could lead to Starmer's downfall

LONDON (AP) — Andy Burnham ’s resounding victory Friday in a special U.K. election is going to set in motion a chain of events that could lead to end of the premiership of Keir Starmer, who less than two years ago led the Labour Party back to power after 14 years.

Burnham is widely tipped to be the lead candidate to replace Starmer, especially as his victory in the seat of Makerfield in northwest England was so decisive. Despite Labour’s dismal poll ratings and recent hefty losses in local elections, Burnham defied electoral gravity — and some.

Burnham, 56, was able to not only see off the challenge of the candidate from anti-immigration Reform UK, but substantially increase the party’s share of the vote to nearly 55%. At local elections last month, Reform UK won virtually every seat that make up the constituency of Makerfield.

Now that Burnham is heading back to Parliament after nearly a decade away, during which time he was the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, he is now in a position to challenge the embattled Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party and of the country. He hasn't openly said he will do so but everything he says shows that he has his eyes firmly fixed on the top job.

Burnham described his victory as “the change moment” and said he and his team hoped to “lay out a new path" for Britain.

“I think we need in this country right now for people to feel a sense of hope that there is something better to work towards on the horizon," he said.

The next U.K. national election doesn’t have to be held until 2029, but British politics allows parties to change leader midterm without the need for a general election.

Here’s how it could happen:

Though Starmer has repeatedly said he will stand against anyone who challenges his position, he may come to the realization over the coming days that he would lose a leadership election, a humiliating end for a man who led his party in a landslide victory in July 2024.

Starmer is one of the most unpopular prime ministers in history after a series of policy missteps and controversies, most notably his misguided appointment of Peter Mandelson as the U.K.'s ambassador to Washington, despite his links to convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

There is speculation that members of his Cabinet will inform him this weekend that the game is up and that it would be better for him — and Labour — to announce his resignation.

If he decided to leave office immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s governing body would likely pick an interim leader to be prime minister, probably someone not expected to run for the Labour Party leadership. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy could fit the bill.

Alternatively, he could announce his intention to step down at a later date, say the party’s annual conference in September.

It's clear that Burnham will stand in any ensuing leadership race. The big question is whether anyone else would too. Wes Streeting, who quit as health secretary last month, has indicated he will throw his hat in the ring. Other potential candidates include Starmer's former deputy, Angela Rayner who had to quit last year over an unpaid property tax, and Al Carns, who resigned last week as the armed forces minister over Starmer's funding plans for the country's defense.

There are many in Labour's ranks who say it would be best if no one stood against Burnham so he could enter 10 Downing Street this summer before the party conference.

On Friday, Starmer was in the peculiar position of congratulating Burnham in the knowledge that it shines a very bright light on his leadership.

The prime minister said Friday that he had not spoken to Burnham, but insisted he would fight attempts to oust him.

“Yes, I will run, I will stand,” he said when asked about what he would do in the event of a leadership challenge. “I’ve said repeatedly I’m not going to walk away from that.”

In the event of a direct challenge, Starmer would automatically be on the ballot.

To challenge Starmer, candidates must win the support of a fifth, or 81, of the party’s House of Commons lawmakers.

Those candidates who meet the threshold of support within the House of Commons would then have to receive the backing of 5% of local constituency parties, or at least three party affiliates — groups such as trade unions and cooperative societies.

Eligible members of the party and affiliates would then vote for the leader using an electoral system that ranks the candidates. The winner is the first candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote.

King Charles III would then invite the winner to become prime minister and form a government.

Should there be a contest, it could last three to four months, with the party organizing town halls before the vote is open to its members.

Labour party's Andy Burnham stands beside candidate Count Binface, left, and a candidate for Protect British Wildlife after winning the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. in Wigan, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Labour party candidate Andy Burnham, center, stands with other candidates on the podium at the Edge Wigan, awaiting the Makerfield by-election result announcement in Wigan, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Britain's Labour party candidate Andy Burnham speaks to supporters after the Makerfield by-election in Ashton in Makerfield, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Labour party's Andy Burnham speaks after winning the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. in Wigan, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Journalists wait in Downing Street in London, following the Makerfield by-election, Friday, June 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

LONDON (AP) — Andy Burnham is a political insider turned outsider who aims to be Britain’s next prime minister.

The 56-year-old politician presents himself as an amiable northern everyman who prefers T-shirts to a suit and tie and spends spare time playing soccer or spinning 1990s tunes during DJ battles.

He’s also an experienced politician whose career has taken him from high-level government jobs to the mayoralty of Greater Manchester, and now to the cusp of the prime minister’s office.

Burnham is expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer after winning a seat in Parliament in a special election he hailed as a “turning point” for U.K. politics.

Burnham was born and raised in a pocket of northwest England between Liverpool and Manchester, the son of a British Telecom engineer and a receptionist. He joined the Labour Party as a teenager, attended Cambridge University and was first elected to Parliament in 2001.

He was a lawmaker for a decade and a half, rising through the ranks under Prime Minister Tony Blair and serving in Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Cabinet between 2007 and 2010.

He ran twice for the leadership of the Labour Party, in 2010 and 2015, and lost badly each time, before quitting Westminster to run for Manchester mayor.

His tenure has seen him nicknamed the King of the North, a “Game of Thrones”-inspired nod both to his championing of his home region and his barely disguised political ambition.

He gained the moniker during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he harangued Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson over what he called a “London-centric” approach to the crisis.

Burnham has led the Greater Manchester region since 2017, overseeing rapid regeneration for the city where the Industrial Revolution was forged. The city center has boomed, with skyscrapers blooming on vacant post-industrial sites. Many residents praise him for championing the city. He took a piecemeal public transport system under public control, branded it the Bee Network and improved its services.

He’s perceived to be to the political left of Starmer – an asset with Labour members – and is acknowledged as one of the party’s best communicators. The rather stiff public speaker of his earlier leadership bids has been replaced by a relaxed figure in jeans and open-necked shirts.

His three mayoral election victories and decisive win in Thursday's election in Makerfield, where he trounced the candidate of the anti-immigration party Reform UK, have cemented his status as a winner. Many in the party hope he can reverse Labour’s precipitous decline in popularity since Starmer won an election landslide two years ago.

Burnham is pledging to repeat on a national scale his signature brand of “Manchesterism” – a politics that, he likes to say, puts people and place before party and centers on places ignored by central governments in London.

“What we’ve built in Greater Manchester needs to go national,” Burnham said during the campaign. “I know what it is to turn places around.”

Critics say Burnham’s politics are vague and fail to grapple with tough issues, such as where the money will come from to pay for his pledges. And they note that running a country of 70 million is a lot different from overseeing a city region of 3 million.

Nonetheless Burnham now has momentum that could propel him into 10 Downing Street.

Supporters of Britain's Labour party MP Andy Burnham show placards before his speech after the Makerfield by-election in Wigan, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Andy Burnham, Britain's Labour candidate for Makerfield, speaks in front of supporters during the by-election in Makerfield, England, Thursday, June 18, 2026 where voters are choosing a new lawmaker with Andy Burnham of the Labour Party as the leading contender.(AP Photo/Jon Super)

Labour party's Andy Burnham speaks after winning the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. in Wigan, England, Friday, June 19, 2026.(AP Photo/Jon Super)