Analysis: A confident Iran is pressing its advantage, but challenges loom

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As Iranian media boast of the “magnificent defeat” of the United States, Tehran is pressing its advantage, racing to sell oil under the interim peace agreement signed this week and trying to halt Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

But the Islamic Republic suffered its own major blows and faces challenges ahead. Its economy is in shambles after the war, the country was rocked by mass protests in January, and its supreme leader has yet to appear in public. It is entering nuclear talks with the U.S. after coming under attack during two previous rounds.

The deal offers desperately needed sanctions relief, much of which will come only if Iran rolls back its nuclear program, including at a minimum diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That concession has angered Iranian hard-liners. The U.S. is meanwhile demanding it cease enrichment entirely, something Iran has staunchly refused for decades.

Iran’s leaders are projecting confidence, having clung to power despite weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes. They also believe U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to carry out threats to resume the war because of Iran's demonstrated ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and damage the world economy.

“It’s too much to say that Iran has emerged a victor, but it could have been much worse,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute think tank. “I think that the real victory for Iran was … survival.”

Under the interim deal, the U.S. is to issue waivers to allow for the export of Iranian crude oil. At least three state-owned Iranian oil tankers have already set sail as the U.S. has lifted its blockade, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Iran has exported nearly 18 million barrels in the last five days, the firm TankerTrackers.com said Friday, putting the value at $1.44 billion.

Dozens more tankers loaded with oil could soon depart from Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal on the Persian Gulf, further pushing down world prices.

Benchmark Brent crude, which traded over $110 a barrel last month, has fallen to around $80 since the deal was reached. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. also has dropped to under $4, a closely watched metric ahead of midterm congressional elections.

The sanctions had long forced Iran to export crude through a “shadow fleet,” selling mainly to China at below-market rates. Now it can pursue more customers and get a better price.

Iran will need that cash more than ever as it grapples with the fallout from the war.

Since authorities lifted a monthslong internet shutdown, many Iranians have posted photographs of their empty refrigerators.

Meat and other staples have grown too expensive for some households. The Iranian rial, which traded at 32,000 to $1 at the time of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, now stands at over 1.5 million to the dollar.

“The conflict is estimated to have cost at least one million Iranian jobs, with 20% of workforce losses tied to the state-imposed internet shutdown,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Ordinary Iranians, already struggling under systemic mismanagement and corruption as well as U.S. sanctions, have felt those burdens compounded by hyperinflation that has rendered the Iranian rial effectively worthless.”

The rial's collapse sparked the nationwide protests that swept across Iran in January, challenging the rule of then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s security forces launched their bloodiest-ever suppression, killing thousands of people.

The 86-year-old Khamenei and other top leaders were killed in Israel’s opening barrage of the war on Feb. 28. Funeral ceremonies are planned for July 4-9, coinciding with the six-month anniversary of the protest crackdown. The government has sponsored nonstop rallies since the war began, in a show of force.

Moderate voices in Iran are pushing for the country to seize the potential economic benefits from negotiations. Along with a complete lifting of all sanctions, the accord promises a $300 billion investment fund for Iran if it reaches a final deal with the U.S. — though it remains unclear where that money would come from.

The question is how far Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, along with establishment hard-liners, are willing to go. In a statement on state media, he endorsed the interim deal, saying talks “will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion” but also saying he had a “different viewpoint,” without elaborating.

The conflict in Lebanon has already put the deal at risk. Talks planned for Friday in Switzerland were postponed as fighting intensified between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

Israel says it will continue to occupy large areas of southern Lebanon and fight Hezbollah until it no longer poses a threat. Hezbollah has refused to halt its attacks without an Israeli withdrawal, though the two sides agreed to halt hostilities Friday.

The interim deal between Iran and the U.S. — which neither Israel nor Hezbollah has signed — calls for both sides to cease military operations and for Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty to be upheld.

“The end of the war in Lebanon is an inseparable part of (the) complete end of the war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday. “And the end of the war also includes the end of the occupation.”

That leaves very little wiggle room for the Americans, who postponed Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Switzerland.

Then there’s the actual negotiations. Iran appears to have gotten two main issues long pushed by the U.S. and Israel off the table: its missile program and its support for Hezbollah and other militant groups.

On the central nuclear issue, it agreed to “downblend” its highly enriched uranium, which resolves one top U.S. concern.

But Raja News, a media outlet aligned with ultra hard-line factions, criticized that agreement, saying Iran had “given up its most important levers.” That shows the pressure not to back down on other issues, like the broader enrichment program.

“I’m not very optimistic about the kind of second round of discussions that are going to focus on the nuclear issue,” Sabet said. “It’s not actually clear to me yet that those will go anywhere, at least this year.”

Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report.

EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.

A small motorboat passes anchored vessels in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, June 17, 2026.(Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

Smoke rises to the sky in an area near Beaufort Castle following an Israeli military strike in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel, Friday, June 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

A woman walks on a sidewalk in front of a mural showing portraits of the late Iranian revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, right, the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, and Basij paramilitary forces, at the Islamic Revolution street in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

In this photo realised by Iran Presidentcy Office, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signs a memorandum of understanding already signed by U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at ending the war and launching negotiations on a broader agreement, in Tehran, Iran, early Thursday, June 18, 2026. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)

Iranian worshippers listen to the sermon of the Friday prayers as one of them holds a poster of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei at the Tehran University campus in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

GENEVA (AP) — Almost every World Cup matchup has a storyline of a player who could have represented another country.

Take Folarin Balogun who scored twice in the United States’ opening win over Paraguay. He chose to play for the U.S. where he was born instead of England where he grew up or Nigeria where his parents came from.

Or Yasin Ayari, who picked Sweden over his father’s native Tunisia, a decision that came into focus as Sweden defeated the North African team 5-1 with two goals from Ayari.

And there’s Ayyoub Bouaddi, an 18-year-old standout who switched national teams from France to Morocco just weeks before the tournament kicked off.

The World Cup in the U.S., Mexico and Canada is the biggest melting pot in the tournament’s history. Decades of migration are reflected in the rosters of major European teams like France, England and Germany. Meanwhile, many teams in Africa and the Caribbean rely heavily on their diaspora, made easier by a relaxation of FIFA’s eligibility rules.

Dozens, if not hundreds, of players at this World Cup are playing for a country other than the one in which they were born. Many with mixed backgrounds switched allegiances when turning senior, following their heart – or their ambition.

Nearly 100 players at this World Cup were born in France, but only 23 of them play for the French national team. The others – France-born players with family ties worldwide – make up significant parts of the squads of Algeria, Cape Verde, Congo, Ghana, Haiti, Ivory Coast, Morocco and Tunisia.

Bouaddi, one of the top performers in Morocco’s 1-1 draw with Brazil, was born in France and nurtured at top-tier club Lille. He played for France at the youth level and was captain of France’s under-21 team as recently as March, but switched to Morocco, where his family came from, just in time for the World Cup.

"I’m very proud of my decision and very happy to represent my country, Morocco,” he said before the tournament. “My family is happy and I hope great things will come in the upcoming competitions.”

Moroccan soccer federation president Faouzi Lekjaa personally visited Bouaddi at his home and met with the president of Lille to outline the North African kingdom’s soccer ambitions and the professional environment it offers, according to Moroccan state television.

Morocco, which in 2022 became the first African country to reach the World Cup semifinals, relies heavily on players from its diaspora in Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. It has 19 foreign-born players in its 26-man squad.

Defender Achraf Hakimi was born in Madrid and Real Madrid forward Brahim Diaz played one game for Spain before his FIFA switch to Morocco was processed in 2024.

Some of the biggest profiles of soccer had to make a choice. Kylian Mbappé was eligible to play for Cameroon or Algeria because of his family background but chose France where he was born and raised. Spain’s Lamine Yamal could have played for Morocco, his father’s homeland.

Brothers Désiré and Guéla Doué took separate paths. Both were born in France but Désiré plays for France while Guéla chose to represent Ivory Coast, where their father is from.

They’re not the only brothers who have ended up on separate World Cup teams. John Souttar represents Scotland while his brother Harry plays for Australia. Nico and Iñaki Williams were born in Spain to Ghanaian parents and while Nico chose to play for Spain, Iñaki picked Ghana.

Tunisia tried to recruit Ayari, the Sweden midfielder who plays for Brighton in the Premier League, for its national team based on his father’s Tunisian background. However, his father, Azzouz Ayari, pushed back. He told Swedish media that he felt his son should represent the country in which he was born and raised.

“I am an immigrant, but my children, no. Yasin is a Swede, with Tunisian background,” Azzouz Ayari told newspaper Aftonbladet. “I want him to play for Sweden because I want him to feel that he is giving back to the country that really took care of him.”

Sweden fans won’t argue with that decision. Ayari scored twice in the team’s opener against Tunisia but muted his celebrations out of respect for his father’s home country.

Balogun’s two goals in the 4-1 win against Paraguay made him – and his background – more widely known to the American public. He played for England at youth level, except for a brief stint with the U.S. under-18 team, but switched to represent the United States in 2023.

That was possible because of birthright citizenship rules in the U.S. – Balogun was born in New York, while his Nigerian parents were visiting.

Balogun has cited the passion of U.S. soccer fans that he experienced while visiting a training camp in Florida in March 2023 as part of the reason why he decided to represent the United States. When they found out he was in Florida, many fans urged him to play for the U.S. national team. He also met with U.S. team officials.

“I’ve always said the fans gave me so much motivation and showed me so much support. The most important thing has always been to be able to repay that,” Balogun said after the Paraguay game last week. “I just want to continue to show the fans I made the right decision."

Whether he could have gotten a place in the highly competitive England squad is unclear. At the time, then-England coach Gareth Southgate said they were monitoring his progress but couldn't promise anything.

Switching nationalities is nothing new in soccer. Some of the sport’s biggest stars represented multiple countries, including Ferenc Puskás, who was the leader of Hungary’s “Mighty Magyars” in the 1950s but played for Spain at the 1962 World Cup.

That Spain squad also included Puskás’s Real Madrid teammate Alfredo Di Stéfano, whose international career started with his native Argentina.

In modern soccer, FIFA intervened in 2004 amid concern Brazilian players were being naturalized with a passport too easily by other countries, including Qatar.

A “clear connection” with the country was insisted on, which could be two years of residence or a grandparent born there.

FIFA’s then-president Sepp Blatter later aimed to “stop this farce” warning that at a 32-team World Cup “you will have 16 full of Brazilian players.”

The residence demand on players aged 18 or over became five years in 2008, and a proposal at the 2011 FIFA Congress by the United Arab Emirates to cut it to three was rejected.

Dual- or multiple-national players have been “cap-tied” by FIFA to any team they represented in a senior competitive game. Those who played only in friendlies or at youth level could apply to switch.

FIFA eased its rules in 2020 to allow more eligibility changes, but players are locked to a nation if they play at a finals tournament of the World Cup or continental championship.

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AP reporter Akram Oubachir in Casablanca, Morocco, contributed to this report.

AP World Cup: https://apnews.com/fifa-world-cup

Spain's Nico Williams works out during a training session, Saturday, June 6, 2026, in Chattanooga, Tenn., ahead of the World Cup soccer tournament. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)

Sweden's Yasin Ayari (18) celebrates after scoring his team's fifth goal during the World Cup Group F soccer match between Sweden and Tunisia in Guadalupe, near Monterrey, Mexico, Sunday, June 14, 2026. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

Morocco's Ayyoub Bouaddi (6) claps as he leaves the pich following a tie in the World Cup Group C soccer match between Brazil and Morocco in East Rutherford, N.J., near New York, Saturday, June 13, 2026. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

United States' Folarin Balogun, center, celebrates scoring his side's third goal against Paraguay with teamates during the World Cup Group D soccer match in Inglewood, Calif., near Los Angeles, Friday, June 12, 2026. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)