Inside the World Cup knockout stage bracket: Some teams have an easier path than others

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — If the World Cup was the NCAA basketball tournament, then teams like Morocco and the Netherlands would have some serious anger toward the selection and seeding committee right now. England, Mexico, Portugal and Spain might not be all that happy, either.

Lionel Messi and Argentina, on the other hand, probably wouldn't complain much about their potential path to the World Cup final four.

The bracket is set for the knockout stage of the World Cup. There was no selection committee; slots were predetermined — Group A winner on this line, Group D runner-up on this line, etc. — so it wasn't exactly like how the NCAA tournaments go. And FIFA doesn't reseed like some sports, so a couple lower seeds are certain to get into at least the Round of 16.

So, when taking the 32 qualifiers for the knockout stage and ranking them like it's an NCAA tournament — essentially seeding the field 1 to 32 based on the FIFA live rankings entering Sunday — it's easy to see why some “regions” might be tougher to navigate than others.

A breakdown of the World Cup bracket:

— Quarterfinal: July 9 at Foxborough, Massachusetts.

— Round of 32 matchups: No. 12 Germany vs. No. 27 Paraguay, No. 2 France vs. No. 26 Sweden, No. 29 South Africa vs. No. 25 Canada, No. 7 Netherlands vs. No. 6 Morocco.

— Outlook: Netherlands vs. Morocco in the Round of 32 means that at least one of the seven highest-ranked teams left in the tournament won't even get to the Round of 16. France and Germany — perennial European powers — could meet in the Round of 16. And the South Africa-Canada winner might have to change time zones twice on its way to the quarterfinals, while Germany, Paraguay, France and Sweden will all be in either Massachusetts, New Jersey or Pennsylvania in the Rounds of 32 and 16.

— If the seeds hold: France would play Morocco in the quarterfinal.

— Quarterfinal: July 10 at Inglewood, California.

— Round of 32 matchups: No. 8 Portugal vs. No. 13 Croatia, No. 3 Spain vs. No. 18 Austria, No. 14 United States vs. No. 30 Bosnia and Herzegovina, No. 10 Belgium vs. No. 17 Senegal.

— Outlook: The U.S. gets one of the lowest-ranked teams left in the tournament to open the Round of 32 and would remain in the Pacific time zone until the semifinals. Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal did not get an easy draw at all, with Croatia right off the bat and then potentially Spain in the Round of 16. (Can't imagine Spain is too thrilled with this, either.) Belgium vs. Senegal is in Seattle, and the winner will stay there to play the U.S. match winner; that's a big break for weary legs.

— If the seeds hold: Spain would play Belgium in the quarterfinal.

— Quarterfinal: July 11 at Miami Gardens, Florida.

— Round of 32 matchups: No. 5 Brazil vs. No. 16 Japan, No. 24 Ivory Coast vs. No. 19 Norway, No. 9 Mexico vs. No. 20 Ecuador, No. 4 England vs. No. 28 Congo.

— Outlook: Mexico and England will be heavily favored in their Round of 32 matches, then would be in line to go head-to-head in the Round of 16 — in what would be a road game at Mexico City for England. And Mexico is one of only two teams not to surrender a goal in the group stage, with Spain being the other. Brazil gets a bit of an easier path to the quarterfinals, opening with Japan and then — if it wins — drawing the Ivory Coast-Norway winner.

— If the seeds hold: Brazil would play England in the quarterfinal.

— Quarterfinal: July 11 at Kansas City, Missouri.

— Round of 32 matchups: No. 1 Argentina vs. No. 31 Cape Verde, No. 22 Australia vs. No. 21 Egypt, No. 15 Switzerland vs. No. 23 Algeria, No. 11 Colombia vs. No. 32 Ghana.

— Outlook: Again, there is no “selection committee,” but if there was it would have gotten this one right by putting the best goalscorer in Argentina's Lionel Messi against the tournament's best story in Cape Verde in the Round of 32. And Messi gets to be at home in Miami Gardens, a few miles from Inter Miami's stadium for that matchup. Australia or Egypt awaits the Argentina match winner, Switzerland-Algeria has potential for a lot of goals, and Colombia faces a Ghana team with nothing to lose.

— If the seeds hold: Argentina would play Colombia in the quarterfinal.

News and notes about the Round of 32 matchups:

— France, Mexico and Argentina were the only teams to escape group play with 3-0-0 records.

— There are four Round of 32 matchups between unbeaten teams: Netherlands (2-0-1) vs. Morocco (2-0-1), Belgium (1-0-2) vs. Senegal (1-0-2), Brazil (2-0-1) vs. Japan (1-0-2) and Argentina (3-0-0) vs. Cape Verde (0-0-3).

— Expect some goals in France vs. Sweden (combined 17 goals in the group stage), Netherlands-Morocco (16), Belgium-Senegal (14), Brazil-Japan (14) and U.S.-Bosnia and Herzegovina (13).

— On the flip side, the first goal of Mexico-Ecuador might be that match's decider. Mexico wasn't scored on in group play and Ecuador surrendered only two goals in those three matches.

— The semifinal matchups are the winner of the Foxborough quarterfinal against the winner of the Inglewood quarterfinal (at Arlington, Texas on July 14) and the winner of the Miami Gardens quarterfinal against the winner of the Kansas City quarterfinal (at Atlanta on July 15). The final is at East Rutherford, New Jersey on July 19.

See more of AP’s World Cup coverage here.

Canada's Promise David (24) takes a shot on goal as Switzerland's Granit Xhaka (10) defends during the World Cup Group B soccer match between Switzerland and Canada in Vancouver, British Columbia, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press via AP)

American singer Dan Reynolds of Imagine Dragons performs at the World Cup Fan Zone in Monterrey, Mexico, Sunday, June 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

United States' Alex Freeman (16), second left, celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during the World Cup Group D soccer match between the United States and Australia in Seattle, Friday, June 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)

Fans hold their cell phones during the World Cup Group J soccer match between Algeria and Austria in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, June 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Argentina's Lionel Messi (10) celebrates scoring his side's 3rd goal during the World Cup Group J soccer match between Jordan and Argentina in Arlington, Texas, near Dallas, Saturday, June 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

BERLIN (AP) — France saw around 1,000 additional deaths last week at the height of its record-smashing heat wave, the country's public health agency said Sunday, as the head of the World Health Organization warned that Europe is now the fastest-warming continent and needs to do more to protect its citizens.

Temperature records were toppled in several countries on the weekend, wildfires were sparked in Germany and Berlin police used water cannons to cool down the crowds.

Meanwhile, the heat wave slowly moved toward eastern parts of the continent.

Germany marked a new record for the third day in a row with 41.7 degrees Celsius (107 degrees Fahrenheit) in Neißemünde, near the border with Poland, which baked under its new all-time high of 40.5 C (104.9 F). The Czech Republic also experienced its hottest day ever with 41.9 C (107.4 F), up from the previous record of 40.9 degrees Celsius (105.6 F) on Saturday.

A new study from the World Weather Attribution, a Europe-based collaboration of scientists, reported Friday that the record-breaking heat and humidity in Europe this past week would not have been possible without climate change.

The rapid study found that the heat would have been virtually impossible just five decades ago, and is 200 times more likely today than it would have been 20 years ago.

France reported a surge in deaths last week, including a sharp increase at private homes, especially in the Paris region, the national public health agency said Sunday.

There were more than 1,200 deaths on Wednesday, when France was sweltering under its hottest temperatures, increasing to more than 1,400 deaths on each of the two following days, Public Health France said. In April and May, before the heat wave, France’s rate of deaths was about 900 to 1,000 per day.

The agency concluded that France experienced a total of at least 1,000 additional deaths during those three days alone, an estimate it cautioned is likely to increase as more data is collected, including for deaths at home.

The increase was sharpest in areas under red warnings of extreme heat, it said. Those warnings blanketed about three-quarters of the country at the peak of the heat wave. The agency said that 85% of the deaths involved people aged 65 and above.

“Europe is the fastest-warming continent on Earth, heating at twice the global average,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Sunday on X. “Right now 150 million people are living under extreme heat, hundreds have died, schools are shut, grids are buckling.”

Driven by climate change and global warming, the “once-in-a-generation” heat wave is now occurring nearly every year, Tedros said, adding that more than 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded since June 21 linked to high temperatures in Europe.

“Heat stress is often called the ‘silent killer’ — and European homes, workplaces and schools were not built for these temperatures,” Tedros warned as he called on European countries to implement action plans. He said they should focus on preparedness, prevention and stronger health system responses.

In Sweden, several people were injured when they were hit by lightning at an amusement park, the country's TT news agency reported.

Three adults were taken to the hospital, among them a woman with serious injuries, after the lightning struck the Tosselilla Sommarland park in Tomelilla in the south of the country.

Across Europe, the extreme heat has been followed by severe thunderstorms.

Denmark, which marked new temperature records on Saturday, recorded 1,156 lighting strikes by Sunday morning, according to public broadcaster DR.

In Gohrischheide, in eastern Germany, a fire broke out in a large forest that's still contaminated with ammunition from World War II, complicating efforts by firefighters.

Similarly, a major firefighting operation was underway in southwest Germany near the village of Traisen, where the heat sparked a forest fire in an area that also contained unexploded ordnance. Firefighters had to stop work temporarily after explosions took place and an ordnance disposal unit was brought in to continuously assess the situation, German news agency dpa reported. Some 650 people in Traisen had to leave their homes Sunday afternoon because the fire continued to spread.

Fire departments in the big cities were busy sending out ambulances to people suffering from heat-related illnesses. In Berlin, an additional 500 ambulance dispatches were reported on Saturday, most of them heat-related.

The German capital's police found a way to help suffering Berliners and tourists alike. They put up two huge water cannons — usually used to disperse unruly protesters — in front of the iconic Brandenburg Gate and sprayed the cool water across the cheering crowd.

The heat also worsened damage to infrastructure, with the concrete surface on countless highways breaking up, and a weekend warning by national rail operator Deutsche Bahn to avoid all unnecessary train travel.

More than 600 passengers had to be evacuated from an overheated train in Brandenburg after a tree fell onto an overhead power line during a storm on Saturday evening. The train, which was on its way from Hamburg to Prague, lost power. The air conditioners stopped working and the doors were locked until emergency responders forced them open. Two people were hospitalized with heat-related problems, dpa reported.

In the eastern city of Leipzig, no trams will be running until early Monday morning due to heat damage to tracks and switches. The Leipzig Public Transportation Authority said that the high temperatures had caused the joint sealant for asphalt and concrete in switches and tracks to run and clump together in many places throughout the city's network.

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Leicester reported from Paris. Associated Press writer Karel Janicek in Prague contributed to this report.

People shelter from sun with umbrellas as they wait for the Angelus noon prayer celebrated by Pope Leo XIV from the window of his studio overlooking St.Peter's Square, at the Vatican, Sunday, June 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

People refresh in a fountain after the Angelus noon prayer celebrated by Pope Leo XIV from the window of his studio overlooking St.Peter's Square, at the Vatican, Sunday, June 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)

People crowd the beach at the seaside resort on the island of Rügen, Germany, Saurday, June 27, 2026, as the heat wave continues over Europe. (Stefan Sauer/dpa via AP)

The city of Lyon, central France, is seen during a heat wave, Saturday, June 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani)

Thousands of fans are celebrating at a concert by techno star Paul Kalkbrenner on the Heiligengeistfeld while a water cannon is in operation on Saturday, June 27, 2026 in Hamburg, Germany. (Marcus Golejewski/dpa via AP)

A prolonged heat wave with high temperatures exceeding caused significant damage to the tram infrastructure in Leipzigv Germany on Saturday, June 27, 2026. (Heiko Rebsch/dpa via AP)

A couple walks by a public fountain on a torrid day, as the National Weather forecaster issued an extreme heat code red warning for parts of the country, in the coming days in Bucharest, Romania, Saturday, June 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru)