US economist Stephen Roach just can’t help himself. He continues to condemn Hong Kong by syndicating his one-sided opinions to regional newspapers, but changing his tactic by referring to the “old Hong Kong.”
He sits among the few remaining doomsday armchair critics who declare Hong Kong is over, dead since the handover in 1997. But he should know better. In his younger days he was chairman of US investment bank, Morgan Stanley Asia, based in Hong Kong. And now at 80 he is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and senior lecturer at Yale School of Management.
His latest outburst has appeared in the Bangkok Post, Manila Times, Mumbai Financial Express and Singapore’s Think China (part of the Singapore Press Holdings' flagship Chinese daily Lianhe Zaobao) to name just a few, all with the same theme “Hong Kong of old is over.”
As a former Hong Kong taipan, Roach is still living in the past. After a considerable backlash from his previous comments about the death of Hong Kong, he is now inferring that all of his previous comments were referring to an unknown past. He doesn’t mention a new Hong Kong, just an old one.
His change in tactic has come about as a result of a barrage of criticism late last year from indignant Hong Kongers and others more knowledgeable in Hong Kong matters, who drew attention to the city’s runaway success as a leading financial center.
While acknowledging Hong Kong’s success, he wrote that beneath the surface, the story is very different. He noted that Hong Kong is just another big Chinese city and that “the Mandarin name Xiānggǎng celebrates the city’s precolonial heritage seems more apt than Hong Kong, a phonetic translation from Cantonese, the city’s long dominant dialect. This dramatic transformation into Xiānggǎng is the real story. Hong Kong’s defenders are in denial about this new chameleon-like identity, instead viewing it as another example of the city’s inherent resilience. Nice try,” he writes.
This shows just how much Roach is out of touch with reality. Hong Kong has been Xiānggǎng ever since China switched to Hanyu pinyin in 1958 to standardize the pronunciation of Mandarin sounds throughout the country. Xiānggǎng is the official Mandarin name for Hong Kong. But for all intents and purposes, Hong Kong is still Hong Kong.
Yes, Hong Kong is another Chinese city, but with very important different characteristics – the rule of law being one of them. Hong Kong inherited Britain’s Common Law system as its legal base, which is different but more recognizable in the West than the Chinese Civil Law system.
But Roach won’t let it go. “The rule of law,” he said,” long regarded as one of Hong Kong’s greatest institutional advantages, has been severely compromised.” He cited the introduction of the national security laws “which stifled open debate.” However, he failed to acknowledge that the law was introduced immediately after Hong Kong was rocked by deadly riots by activists, and external forces. And, ironically, the new national security law for the UK virtually mirrors the Hong Kong law.
He also cites the resignation of six foreign judges from the Court of Final Appeal “calling the independence of the city’s highest judicial authority into serious question.” In this he found an ally in Lord Jonathan Sumption, a China hawk who wrote in the Financial Times that a Mainland strain of judicial patriotism was poisoning the city’s legal system. He did not mention that many resigned simply because of old age and as Canadian judge Beverley McLachlin, who resigned citing her wish to spend more time with her family told the BBC: "I continue to have confidence in the members of the Court, their independence, and their determination to uphold the rule of law.”
Gazing into his dusty crystal ball, Roach believes that the Hong Kong government seems to think that the Chinese-style central planning offers new hope for its economy and recently launched its first five-year plan. “But, as China is painfully learning, such plans can often over-promise and under-deliver. This suggests that until there is a meaningful test of the downside — for the economy or the equity market — any conclusions drawn about Hong Kong’s resilience are premature,” he wrote. He is apparently oblivious of Hong Kong’s ambitious billion-dollar Northern Metropolis project which will transform land, one third of Hong Kong’s total, into a futuristic science hub with universities, hospitals and new town facilities to meet a new population of 2.5 million.
Hong Kong’s Deputy Financial Secretary Michael Wong Wai-lun, without referring directly to Roach, rebutted: “Some critics appear to be driven by bias against China rather than objective analysis. Their criticism is neither backed by evidence nor aligned with facts. On the contrary, investors and talent have full confidence in Hong Kong, drawn by our global connectivity and international character.”
Just the other day, Roach wrote, a leading reporter messaged me: “Hong Kong is over’ seems over. What would you say about it?” Well, let me be clear: the Hong Kong of old is, indeed, over. Go to Xiānggǎng and see for yourself.”
Much of Roach’s ramblings is old news and repeats of what he has said before. There is nothing new in his latest outbursts. He appears to be an old man living in the past without acknowledging the present or future.
Mark Pinkstone
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
When China’s Paramount Leader Deng Xiao Ping floated the idea of one country two systems for the future of Hong Kong, the west scoffed at the possibility of a communist regime and a capitalist bastion living hand in hand. Some 29 years later the prophets of doom were proven wrong as Hong Kong is now more prosperous than ever and it’s future will be more so.
For more than 150 years Hong Kong lived under a British colonial rule. There was no democracy, only authoritarian management. The succession of ruling governors were hand-picked by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and appointed by the Prime Minister, without any consultation with the people of Hong Kong.
But the people of Hong Kong didn’t mind. If they had never seen democracy, how could they miss it. The governors were diplomats and their upper-crust training ensured that the natives were happy and that their rice bowls were filled. The diplomats got on well with the Chinese government as they knew that harmony was the key component to a successful relationship.
Then came along a politician for the first time to run Hong Kong in the name of Chris Patten, who had lost his seat in the Bath electorate, about 156 km west of London. John Major was Prime Minister at the time and a good friend of Patten. So, to make up for the political loss in Bath, Major offered Patten the cushy job of being governor of Hong Kong.
In 1992 Patten and his family arrived in Hong Kong and as a typical politician, he arrived like a bull in a china shop (pun intended). There was no diplomacy involved. Patten and Major had decided that the foreign office diplomats were pussy-footing with the Chinese during the previous decade negotiating Hong Kong’s future and a firmer stand was necessary.
Unlike his predecessors, Patten knew nothing of Chinese traditions and customs. He just could not understand Chinese mentality and that applied not only to the mainlanders but also the local Chinese. The East is East and the West is West and never the twain shall meet wrote poet Rudyard Kipling in 1889. But, in Hong Kong they did.
The Joint Declaration between Great Britain and China on the future of Hong Kong and the subsequent Basic Law (Hong Kong’s mini constitution) provided the pathway for Hong Kong’s future, including democratic elections for the city’s legislative council. But Patten was impatient and decided to introduce a fully elected legislature in 1995 immediately before the handover in 1997. This infuriated the Chinese-side, and they provided for a provisional legislature to replace Patten’s council as soon as Hong Kong was reverted to Beijing’s administration.
After 1997, Hong Kong formed its first directly elected Legislative Council in 1998, while the Chief Executive is elected by an Election Committee — a system similar to the U.S. presidential election. Hong Kong's Election Committee now has 1,500 members, whereas the U.S. Electoral College has only 538 members.
Since then, Hong Kong has flourished. The prophets of doom and Kipling were wrong. Despite many attempts by the west to dismantle the Deng formula Hong Kong is one of the most successful places on the planet. Year after year it is breaking records to the envy of many. Hong Kong has secured third place in the Global Financial Centres Index. In the latest World Competitiveness Ranking, Hong Kong's position has risen one spot further to rank second globally. And in the World Talent Ranking, Hong Kong has moved up 10 places to rank the fourth globally and the first in Asia. Hong Kong also continues to come first as the world's freest economy. And Hong Kong has what many want – stability.
The Hong Kong formula is unique and successful. Never tried before, it was seen as an experiment and the world was watching, waiting for it to fail. But the Hong Kong people are resourceful and will take any challenge head on. There is no failure.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), established under the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Constitution, has maintained the previous capitalist system and way of life. Its common law system continues to operate, and it enjoys the free flow of people, capital, data, goods and more. The vibrancy and prosperity of the central government has always been Hong Kong's strongest backing.
Hong Kong’s 29th birthday under the PRC guidance, coincides with the 105th Anniversary of the Founding of the Communist Party of China. Naturally there have been celebrations all round, and justifiably so. Both Hong Kong and the central government are proud of what they have achieved. And both, particularly in the past year have taken top ranking as the preferred place in the world to trust and to do business.
Chief Executive John Lee, at a celebratory function on July 1 summed it up with: “Hong Kong, the Pearl of the Orient, will ride the wave of flourishing national development and sail with the wind, steering towards a brighter and more prosperous future!”
And the future is being mapped out in Hong Kong’s first five-year plan, currently under consultation with the public. The plan, a road map for future leaders to follow, will include a futuristic block of land, one third of Hong Kong’s total, to house high tech innovative research and development facilities with university, hospital and new town ancillary services. This Northern Metropolis straddles the river that acts as the boundary between Hong Kong and neighboring Shenzhen, with bridges linking the two; further proof that Hong Kong is an integral part of China.
