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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii’s state primary

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii’s state primary
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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Hawaii’s state primary

2026-08-07 20:36 Last Updated At:20:40

WASHINGTON (AP) — An ongoing corruption scandal involving Hawaii’s lieutenant governor looms over Saturday’s state primary as nine candidates jockey to replace her. Meanwhile, a longtime Democratic congressman who bucked his party and supported one of President Donald Trump’s top legislative priorities faces a tough primary challenge.

Five Democrats and four Republicans are seeking their parties’ nominations to succeed embattled Democratic Hawaii Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, who pleaded not guilty in July to bribery charges stemming from her 2022 campaign when she was a state lawmaker.

Hawaii’s lieutenant governorship has long been a steppingstone to higher office in the state. Democratic Gov. Josh Green and Democratic U.S. Sens. Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz all served as lieutenant governor. The governor and lieutenant governor are elected individually and do not run on the same ticket.

The Democratic field includes Kauai County Mayor Derek Kawakami, state Rep. Della Au Belatti and former state Deputy Attorney General John Choi. Kawakami has led in fundraising. He also has the backing of a political action committee tied to the carpenters union that has spent roughly $2 million on his behalf, according to state campaign finance records.

Republican Daniel Anthony was the top spender among his primary opponents for the first few weeks of July, but at about $6,900, it was a fraction of spending by the leading Democratic candidates.

Luke has been on an unpaid leave of absence since April. Green named state official Keith Regan as acting lieutenant governor. Regan isn’t running for a full term.

Green is seeking reelection as governor. He faces three Democratic primary challengers. Republicans have a two-way primary.

In the 1st Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Case seeks a seventh full term but first must overcome four primary challengers, including state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole.

Keohokalole has criticized Case for crossing party lines in April 2025 to support Trump’s signature election legislation, known as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act. The Republican president's legislation would, among other things, require voters to prove their U.S. citizenship when registering for federal elections.

Case has said, including in a recent Hawaii Public Radio interview, that the version of the SAVE Act he voted for provided accommodations for voters who don’t present the required documentation, including signing a written attestation of their citizenship. He has voted against subsequent versions of the bill that didn’t provide those accommodations.

Case and Keohokalole were evenly matched in terms of campaign fundraising and spending, although Case had a sizable advantage in terms of cash in the bank heading into the campaign’s final stretch.

The winner will face Republican Adriel Lam, who is unopposed in the primary.

Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District is heavily Democratic. Case won reelection in 2024 with about 72% of the vote. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris received about 62% of the district vote in the presidential election against Trump.

About half of Hawaii's 25 state Senate seats and all 51 state House seats are up in 2026. Democrats hold overwhelming majorities in both chambers.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 1 a.m. ET Sunday.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Any registered voter in Hawaii may participate in any party’s primary.

As of the November 2024 general election, there were about 861,000 registered voters in Hawaii.

About 195,000 voters cast ballots in the 2024 Democratic U.S. Senate primary and about 54,000 in the Republican primary. Turnout was higher in the 2022 primaries for governor. About 251,000 Democratic primary voters and about 76,000 Republican primary voters cast ballots that year.

About 91,000 voters cast ballots in the 1st Congressional District Democratic primary in 2024.

Hawaii conducts its elections primarily by mail. Ballots are mailed to all registered voters. Less than 2% of 2024 state primary voters cast their ballots in person.

As of Tuesday, about 179,000 ballots had already been cast in Saturday’s election.

All four counties in Hawaii tend to release most of their results from early in-person and mail voting in their first vote updates of the night, before any in-person Election Day votes are released. Almost all results are released by the final election night vote update.

Hawaii typically has three vote updates after polls close: the first at roughly 1:30 a.m. ET, the second at roughly 4:30 a.m. ET, and the third and final in the early hours of the Monday following the election.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 1:22 a.m. ET, or 22 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 4:48 a.m. ET, with about 92% of total votes counted.

In the 2022 state primary, the first results were available at 1:58 a.m. ET, and the last election night update was at 4:45 a.m. ET, with about 86% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Hawaii are automatic if the vote margin is 100 votes or less, or 0.25% of the total votes cast for a contest, whichever is smaller. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Saturday, there will be 87 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.

FILE - Palm trees frame the Hawaii State Capitol, April 23, 2025, in Honolulu, Hawaii. (AP Photo/Mengshin Lin, File)

FILE - Palm trees frame the Hawaii State Capitol, April 23, 2025, in Honolulu, Hawaii. (AP Photo/Mengshin Lin, File)

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski said Friday she will oppose Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general, narrowing the confirmation path for President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Justice Department.

The Alaska senator said she’s concerned the Trump administration could proceed with its proposed $1.8 billion fund to compensate Jan. 6 rioters even though Blanche has issued a formal order terminating it.

Meanwhile, Trump said Thursday he was signing two executive actions on immigration: one limiting the number of people eligible for U.S. citizenship after being born in the United States and the other focused on stopping people from coming to the U.S. to give birth. It’s a sign that even after Trump’s first attempt at limiting birthright citizenship was rejected by the Supreme Court, he’s ready to try again.

Here's the latest:

The Republican president is sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign money but told Punchbowl News in an interview released Friday that he’ll unleash the funds to help GOP candidates ahead of the November midterms.

Trump says he has as much as $800 million to spend.

“I control it,” he emphasized.

Notably, he did not offer any details about when or where he’ll distribute the campaign cash.

Many Republicans have been counting on Trump’s super PAC being a key part of the GOP’s defense of their House and Senate majorities. The president’s political funds are a key part of Republicans’ overall financial advantage in the midterm campaign, despite individual Democratic Senate and House candidates outraising their Republican opponents in many key races across the country.

The president told Punchbowl News he’ll leave his acting attorney general at the Justice Department even if his nomination fails.

“It’ll be very sad,” Trump said, but, “we’ll all survive. Todd will survive.”

Trump called Blanche “fair” and said he’s “not a radical flamethrower.” But he acknowledged the political realities.

He singled out Sen. Murkowski as one of his Republican critics but said he has no regrets about his relationship with the Alaska Republican or other GOP senators, including Louisiana’s Bill Cassidy, who could now determine whether Blanche is confirmed.

“You do what you have to do,” Trump said. “Just so you understand, they voted to impeach me. ... In all fairness, you think that I’m going to support somebody that voted to impeach me?”

Cassidy and Murkowski were among the Republicans who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021 after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

The Alaska Republican announced on social media that she’ll vote against confirming the acting attorney general for the permanent job.

Murkowski complimented Blanche personally after private meetings with him but said she’s concerned he cannot lead an independent Justice Department under President Donald Trump.

“The country needs an Attorney General who will check the worst impulses of this administration,” she said. “I hope Mr. Blanche is able to achieve that, if confirmed, but I simply do not have confidence that will be the case.”

Murkowski’s decision puts Blanche’s nomination on the brink of failing in a chamber where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. She joins Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine in opposition, and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has missed Senate votes since early June because of health problems.

That leaves Sen. Bill Cassidy as the potentially deciding vote given that all Democrats are expected to vote against Blanche.

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump speaks with a reporter as he departs after an event for Olympic athletes, coaches, staff, and representatives from Team USA in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Donald Trump speaks with a reporter as he departs after an event for Olympic athletes, coaches, staff, and representatives from Team USA in the East Room of the White House, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

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