The ancient Greek historian Thucydides recorded the famous "Melian Dialogue" in his monumental History of the Peloponnesian War. From it comes the celebrated line: "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." Watching the United States and Canada trade tariff blows, I am reminded of that famous saying.
Talks Collapse, Tariffs Fly
Trade talks between the United States and Canada recently collapsed. Ottawa said Washington kept piling on new demands at the last minute. Canada could not accept them, and the negotiations broke down. US President Donald Trump hit back immediately. He invoked a never-before-used provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 and slapped an additional 50% tariff on US$20 billion worth of Canadian imports. The targets include products such as wine, cement and hockey sticks.
Ottawa fired back on Tuesday (August 25). The Canadian government announced retaliatory tariffs on US$20 billion worth of American goods. The answer to Trump's 50% hike came "dollar for dollar, rate for rate."
Trump, meanwhile, kept upping the ante. He wrote on his social platform that Canada has been exploiting the United States for years. Ottawa imposes excessive tariffs on American farm products, he said, and the bilateral trade deficit has run as high as US$60 billion over the long term. That situation, he warned, cannot go on. He then announced that tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel will rise to 50% from January 1 next year. The move is plainly meant to force automakers with plants in Canada to relocate back to the United States.
Trump also declared that he no longer sees Canada as America's 51st state. His reasoning: the United States does not need Canada. It is Canada that needs the United States. He further announced that Lake Ontario would be renamed "Lake America."
Ford Fights Back
America's tariff onslaught has enraged Canadians. Ontario Premier Doug Ford publicly called out Trump on August 26, telling him he had "better have a pack of batteries." Ford's meaning could hardly be more blunt. Ontario currently supplies power to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. If Trump keeps pressing ahead in the trade war, the province can pull the switch at any time. That would cut power to 1.5 million homes and businesses in those three states.
"Everything's on the table. I'll do whatever it takes," Ford said. "Trump has underestimated Canadians. We're all in." Asked how he would respond to Trump's tariff offensive, Ford turned blunt: "He can kiss my ass. I have a lot of real estate on my ass, so he has a lot of room to kiss my ass." Ford also warned that Canada could restrict exports of oil, potash and strategic minerals to the United States. He accused Trump of squeezing every industry to force them all into America and turn Canada into a "vassal state."
Trump launched a fierce counterattack on social media after Ford spoke. First he branded the premier "Flunky Ford." Then came the threat: "Someone should get these clowns to fall in line, or the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE!"
Lessons From Melos
The clash between Canada and the United States brings to mind the Peloponnesian War. In 416 BC, Athens was the rising power. It had surged after the Greco-Persian Wars and built a maritime empire through the Delian League. Its navy was powerful, its economy prosperous, its culture vibrant. Athens was full of energy and bent on expansion. Sparta was the established power. The Sparta-led Peloponnesian League was the traditional overlord on land and fielded a mighty army. But its system was conservative, and its aim was chiefly to preserve the status quo.
Athens was expanding relentlessly at the time, coercing more city-states into its camp to build strength. Melos was an island state in the Aegean Sea and a Spartan colony. It had stayed neutral throughout the war. Athens could not tolerate a neutral city-state that refused to obey. It dispatched 30 warships and more than 3,000 soldiers to the shores of Melos, demanding unconditional surrender.
The Athenians and the Melians entered into a dialogue. Athens laid its cards on the table first: "There is no need to talk about justice in this negotiation, for right is only in question between equals in power." Then came that famous line, the principle by which Athens acted: "The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." The Athenians offered the Melians two choices. Submit and pay tribute, or resist and be destroyed by Athenian arms. The Melians chose to resist, placing their hopes in Spartan aid.
In the end, the promised reinforcements never came. The city-state fell. Athens carried out its threat by force. It slaughtered every adult man in the city and sold all the women and children into slavery. The island of Melos was utterly destroyed.
We often say that in the face of hegemony, one must fight back: "Strike one punch to forestall a hundred more." But the reality is, that is an art of struggle between rivals of comparable strength. When the gap in power is vast, confrontation may well bring about the fate of the Melians.
The Athenian maxim closely echoes a golden quote from former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. On February 17, 2022, he made a striking remark about US-China relations on a panel at the Munich Security Conference: "In the international system, if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." But a seat at the table is not given. It takes the strength and standing that earns you one.
A Lopsided Matchup
International relations ultimately come down to a balance of power, chiefly military and economic might. Canada may have the world's second-largest landmass, but its population of 41 million is barely more than a tenth of America's. The US military ranks first in the world; Canada ranks 28th. The United States has between 1.32 and 2.8 million active-duty personnel; Canada has just 68,000 to 72,000. The US possesses a powerful nuclear triad; Canada has no nuclear weapons at all. The two countries share a border, but their military strength is worlds apart.
As for economic power, US GDP ranks first globally while Canada ranks tenth. America's nominal GDP stands at US$30.8 trillion. Canada's is US$2.3 trillion. The two economies are tightly intertwined, yet the disparity in power is extreme.
China has the strength to challenge the United States. Canada does not have that kind of clout. If Premier Ford's threat to cut off electricity to the US ever comes true, I fear it would hand Trump a pretext for war against Canada.
Choose To Be Strong
Today's world order swings with Trump's emotions. He is mired in the quagmire of the Iran war, and now he has launched a trade war against Canada. Picking a weaker opponent to fight is itself an act of venting frustration. Canada's position is extremely precarious.
The lesson of this story is simple. Given a choice, choose to be the strong. Never choose to be the weak. In these turbulent times, chanting "end one-party dictatorship" day in and day out in Hong Kong will not make our country stronger, nor will it make Hong Kong better. The true path to survival and development lies in building ourselves up and improving people's livelihoods. All other grand talk is nothing but hot air.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
China's strategy is simple: throw one punch to avoid a hundred.
On Wednesday, August 5, China fired back with five consecutive moves to counter a string of recent US measures that Beijing sees as hostile. A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce called the countermeasures "generally restrained." The message was clear: since the China-US presidential meeting in Busan, the US Federal Communications Commission has ignored China's strong opposition and industry appeals. It keeps stretching the concept of national security to roll out restrictions on China.
Meanwhile, the US has added over 40 Chinese entities to the so-called Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act entity list. China demands the US immediately revoke these measures. And if Washington insists on new restrictions, "China will further retaliate."
China's moves are a direct answer to a series of petty US actions that fall into two main areas.
First, the FCC. Before the government took action, the People's Daily fired a warning shot. Under the byline "Zhong Sheng," it blasted the FCC for hiding behind banners like "non-discrimination" and "national security" to discriminate against and suppress Chinese companies.
The FCC recently added foreign-made power inverters and advanced robotic equipment to its so-called "Covered List." That means new models can't get certification and are locked out of the US market. The paper called the tactic typical unilateral bullying.
This isn't new. Back in 2021, the FCC put telecom and video surveillance gear from five Chinese companies on the list. Since then, it has steadily widened the net. In April, it proposed revoking the qualifications of testing and certification bodies from countries that haven't signed a "Mutual Recognition Agreement" with the US. That artificially raises the compliance bar for Chinese products.
And now, Reuters reports the FCC is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese-made optical communication transceivers for data centers.
Second, the Xinjiang sanctions. On July 30, the US Department of Homeland Security added over 40 Chinese entities to the entity list under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act. The move, effective August 3, swells the list from 144 to 187, the biggest expansion since it was created. The new targets span food, clothing, and cotton. They include snack maker Qia Qia melon seeds, frozen food producer Zhengzhou Synear dumplings, and apparel brand Fujian Septwolves.
When the news hit the Chinese internet, netizens erupted in mockery. The joke going around teasing that "eating melon seeds can easily damage US soldiers' teeth."
China didn't waste a second. It fired back with five countermeasures, and the first one hits where it hurts: drones. Beijing is tightening export controls on drones and related technologies to the US. From now on, every shipment of drones, key components, and controlled technologies will face a strict case-by-case review.
And forget about any 'licensing facilitation' exemptions—those are off the table. Think about it: China is the world's drone superpower. The US wanted to block Chinese drones from coming in. Now China is flipping the script—it's restricting what goes out. The message is blunt: just because you want to buy doesn't mean we'll sell. Especially not advanced drones and components with military uses.
The second measure is a highly targeted strike: China has added six US entities to its Countermeasures List, all of which it says assisted US sanctions on Xinjiang-related companies.
Applied DNA Sciences, Inc. is believed to provide DNA-based traceability and verification services for relevant products.
Stratum Reservoir, LLC is believed to conduct stable-isotope testing and related analysis to determine the origin of Xinjiang-linked materials.
Altana Technologies, Inc., which operates a global supply-chain mapping and management platform, is believed to help the US government trace supply chains involving Xinjiang-linked products.
The Responsible Business Alliance, which promotes responsible business conduct in global supply chains and operates assessment programmes for member companies, is believed to help companies exclude Xinjiang-linked products from their supply chains.
Verité Group, Inc., a nonprofit focused on labour rights and human rights, examines alleged forced labour in global supply chains.
Human Rights in China, a New York-based human-rights organization, advocates sanctions related to Xinjiang.
China’s countermeasures against these six entities are therefore highly targeted.
The third measure targets a US compliance testing company that helped the FCC impose China-related sanctions. That company will now be locked out of the compliance testing business in the Chinese market. The ripple effect: it could drive up compliance costs for US products trying to enter China.
The fourth measure hits at the heart of product certification. China is suspending the entrustment of US agencies to conduct factory follow-up inspections for CCC certification. Remember, CCC certification is a must-have for US products to enter the Chinese market. By pulling the plug on US inspectors, China shifts the review work to its own agencies. That spells more time and more uncertainty for American exporters.
The fifth measure, a national security investigation into imported US printing and copying office equipment. On the surface, this one looks like a light tap.
China imported about $2.08 billion worth of such equipment in 2025, mostly from Japan ($1.72 billion). The US slice was small. But this is just the opening move.
The US has banned Chinese software and hardware from connected and autonomous vehicles on American roads—and until now, China held its fire.
Now Beijing is investigating US printers and copiers on national security grounds. The message is unmistakable: if Washington plays the national security card at every turn, Beijing can just as easily slap an 'unsafe' label on American phones and EVs running US software.
But that's not the main battlefield. Artificial intelligence is the real arena. Over the past month, Chinese companies have rolled out one high-performance, low-cost AI model after another, sending US AI giants reeling. When Anthropic released a new model in June, the US government demanded it be kept out of non-American hands. The clash forced Anthropic to pull the model. Trump signed an executive order in June setting up an AI safety framework, including a voluntary program for companies to submit cutting-edge models for government review.
Then Chinese developers like Moonshot AI and DeepSeek unleashed open-source systems that rival top-tier US models, fueling a fierce debate in Washington over how to regulate open-weight models. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei pushed for mandatory government safety reviews for both open and proprietary models, taking direct aim at Chinese open-source systems. He won backing from Treasury Secretary Bessent and others, but ran into a wall of opposition from US tech giants, including Nvidia.
On August 4, the Trump administration delivered its verdict. In a meeting led by the Office of the National Cyber Director, top US AI companies were told that under the new AI safety framework, open-source models from Chinese rivals would not face US government safety testing.
For Anthropic, it was a crushing defeat. US National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross later spelled out the thinking at a cybersecurity conference in Las Vegas: the US government wants to back the American open-source AI ecosystem. He called such models 'tremendously valuable' and insisted the regulatory framework must stay 'flexible.'
Otherwise, he warned, 'it would not only stifle growth, development, and innovation, but the regulatory regime would become obsolete within 48 hours of completing its process.'
The bottom line: Washington keeps chipping away at China with petty moves. But when the pile gets high enough, Beijing punches back hard—and signals it has heavier blows ready.
President Xi is due to visit the US in September, and Trump will be in Shenzhen in mid-November for the APEC summit. Trump doesn't want things to spiral out of control; at crunch time, he'll yank the leash on his officials.
The real battlefield is artificial intelligence. It was almost certain that the White House's decision to leave Chinese open-source models alone came after fierce pushback from China.
Lo Wing-hung
