AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Massachusetts state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Massachusetts Democrats will decide the latest head-to-head matchup between the party’s moderate and progressive wings in a state primary Tuesday, but this time, top progressives are backing the incumbent against a more moderate challenger.

U.S. Sen. Ed Markey faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton in his bid for a third full term. The contest ties together two recurring themes in Democratic primaries this year: progressives vs. moderates, and longtime incumbents vs. significantly younger challengers.

Bay State voters will also choose nominees for U.S. House, governor, and a variety of state and local offices.

Markey, who turned 80 in July, is the second-oldest sitting U.S. senator seeking reelection in 2026. He took the seat in 2013 after serving nearly 37 years in the House. He last faced a competitive primary in 2020, when he defeated then-U.S. Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, 55% to 45%.

Moulton is a six-term congressman who briefly sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. He will turn 48 in October.

Markey has had a slight financial advantage over the course of the campaign, raising and spending more than $8 million compared with more than $6 million for Moulton. Moulton had a slight advantage in cash-on-hand as of Aug. 12.

A majority of delegates to the state party convention in May voted to endorse Markey for reelection, but Moulton won enough support to qualify for Tuesday’s ballot. Markey’s other key backers include U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, as well as U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Moulton was endorsed by The Boston Globe. He also has the support of several of his current and former Democratic House colleagues, including New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill.

Massachusetts has 14 counties, although elections are conducted at the city and town level. Suffolk County is home to Boston and is surrounded by Middlesex, Essex and Norfolk counties, which together comprise most of the Boston suburbs. Middlesex County, which is home to Cambridge, Newton, Somerville and Markey’s hometown of Malden, has the largest population in the commonwealth.

In his 2020 primary victory over Kennedy, Markey swept all four counties, which comprised about 61% of the total primary vote. He also carried most of western Massachusetts, as well as Cape Cod and the islands in the southeast.

Kennedy carried much of central Massachusetts, including Worcester County, the second most populous in the state. He also won Bristol and Plymouth counties in the southeast. Moulton will likely need to replicate or improve upon Kennedy’s success in these areas.

To defeat Markey, he’ll also need to eat into the incumbent’s advantage in the Boston area. Essex County will likely be a key battleground in that effort. Most of the county is in Moulton’s 6th Congressional District and it includes his hometown of Salem. Markey beat Kennedy in Essex County by a 9-point margin.

The 6th Congressional District also has a competitive Democratic primary underway to succeed Moulton. The six-way contest includes former Andover Selectman Dan Koh, financial technology executive John Beccia and state Rep. Tram Nguyen.

Koh has endorsements from both former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris. He previously served in the Biden White House and was the top aide to Marty Walsh in his stints as Boston mayor and U.S. secretary of labor. In 2018, Koh ran for Congress in the neighboring 3rd District but narrowly lost the primary to now-U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan, who has endorsed Nguyen.

Koh leads the field in fundraising, with about $4.7 million in contributions. Tram was second in contributions with about $895,000 raised, but Beccia leapfrogged her in overall spending power thanks to the $4 million he loaned his campaign.

The winner will face Republican Micah Q. Jones, who is unopposed for the nomination.

In the 8th Congressional District, 13-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch faces a strong challenge from attorney Patrick Roath, who has outraised the incumbent.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, Governor’s Council, state Senate, state House and district attorney in Norfolk and Suffolk counties.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independents or voters not enrolled with a party may participate in either primary. Voters in what the state calls minor party “political designations” may also vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

As of February 2025, there were about 5 million registered voters in Massachusetts, including about 1.3 million Democrats, about 423,000 Republicans, about 3.3 million voters with no party affiliation and about 49,000 voters in minor parties.

About 751,000 Democratic primary voters and about 270,000 Republican primary voters cast ballots in the 2022 state primaries.

About 57% of the Democratic primary vote and about 32% of the Republican primary vote in the 2022 state primaries was cast early in person or by mail.

As of Thursday, about 468,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, including about 390,000 from Democrats and about 78,000 from Republicans.

Massachusetts runs elections at the town and city level. There are 351 separate jurisdictions administering local elections, and they vary in terms of how and when they release results. In many of the larger jurisdictions, results from a mix of voting methods are released together throughout the night.

In the 2024 state primary, the AP first reported results at 8:06 p.m. ET, or six minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:24 a.m. ET with about 91% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Massachusetts does not have automatic recounts. Candidates for statewide and districtwide offices may request a recount if the vote margin is not more than 0.5% of the total vote. Candidates at the town or ward level may request a recount through a signature petition. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.

FILE - Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., speaks to the media during a campaign event in Manchester, N.H., April 23, 2019. (AP Photo/Cheryl Senter, File)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United Arab Emirates said it intercepted an Iranian drone over its waters Monday, an attack that comes after the United States and Iran exchanged fire over the weekend for the first time in a month.

Iranian officials said two people were killed and several others injured in the U.S. attack Sunday night on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by launching missiles at U.S. sites in Jordan, which were intercepted.

During the lull in fighting, the U.S. has been ratcheting up economic pressure on Iran with the hope of forcing concessions out of Tehran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Iran established a chokehold on the vital strait, though which a fifth of the world's traded oil passed in peacetime, slowing ship traffic to a trickle. That has roiled the global economy, raising prices worldwide for energy and other goods.

As the fighting resumed, the price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, climbed above $90, up about 25% from the start of the war, presenting a growing problem for U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.

A return to open conflict would be dangerous for the region, where Iran has targeted U.S. military bases and infrastructure in Gulf countries since the war began.

In a short statement, the UAE Defense Ministry said it “dealt with” an Iranian drone that was detected over its waters approaching from Iran. There were no reports of damage.

“This dangerous escalation constitutes a blatant violation of the UAE’s sovereignty, security, and stability, and a direct threat to the safety of its citizens and residents,” the Foreign Ministry said.

The Defense Ministry later issued a second statement denying a claim by the Iranian army that the Al Minhad Air Base in Dubai had been targeted, saying it was false.

In the wake of the U.S. attack on Sunday, Iran's Foreign Ministry said Monday Iran would “not hesitate to exercise the inherent right of legitimate defense and will respond decisively to any military aggression.”

Before heading to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's summit in Kyrgyzstan with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has favored a negotiated end to the conflict, stressed that Iran was not seeking war.

“But,” he said, “we will respond decisively to aggressors.”

The summit brings together a group billed as a counterweight to U.S. global influence, and includes Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pezeshkian was scheduled to meet with Putin on the sidelines on Tuesday.

Meantime, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was set to host meetings of the Group of 20 finance ministers in North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday, which come as Washington pressures other countries to help the U.S. economically isolate Iran.

The shifting strategy centers on threats to punish any country or entity that continues to conduct business with Tehran.

Two weeks ago, the UAE suspended all trade with Iran after saying it had come under renewed fire from Iran with two missiles fired at shipping traffic splashing down harmlessly in the Persian Gulf. Iran denied the attack.

Bessent later suggested it was pressure from Washington that led to the UAE decision.

Trump stressed last week that he is “not in a hurry” to get Iran back to the negotiating table, and he continues making the case that the Islamic Republic’s leadership is on the ropes.

Appointments to Iran’s senior security leadership in the past month, however, have signaled Tehran’s defiance after weathering decades of sanctions as well as a lack of tolerance for dissent at home.

On Sunday, U.S. Central Command said it had struck Iranian launchers after observing forces with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said last week it had completed clearing sea mines from the waterway’s international shipping routes.

U.S. military officials disputed Iran’s claim that the latest American strikes were an act of aggression, calling them a “limited, precise action” against what they said were minelaying forces.

Iranian state television later showed what it said were ballistic missiles being fired at American bases in Jordan, and Jordan’s military said it intercepted eight that had entered its airspace.

The last time the U.S. military confirmed targeting Iran was on July 29, when it announced a “heavy wave of strikes” on dozens of Revolutionary Guard targets including coastal surveillance and defense sites.

FILE - A small boat sails past cargo ships and other commercial vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP, File)