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As midterms approach, new poll finds that few Americans trust campaigns or Trump

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As midterms approach, new poll finds that few Americans trust campaigns or Trump
News

News

As midterms approach, new poll finds that few Americans trust campaigns or Trump

2026-09-09 22:25 Last Updated At:22:30

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are more skeptical of government information than they were a few years ago, with majorities now saying they have little or no trust in federal government information about elections and politics, foreign affairs or the environment, a new poll finds.

The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts shows that while mistrust of government information has grown since 2024, it's also higher than it was at the end of President Donald Trump's first term, underscoring how his recent attempts to dismantle parts of the federal bureaucracy may have affected public confidence in the executive branch, particularly among Democrats.

Those suspicions extend to the results of the coming midterm elections. Only 34% of U.S. adults trust government certifications of election results “a great deal” or “quite a bit,” which is down slightly from 40% in 2024. Certification is a typically routine process in which local and state officials confirm the vote count, but it's become politicized since Trump lost the 2020 presidential election.

Trust in government information has also become more partisan since Trump's first term, the survey found.

“It's pretty hard to trust anything that's being communicated,” said Shannon Ingram, 46, a Democrat who lives in Maryland, pointing to shifting health recommendations as an example of “questionable” government information she's seen since Trump regained office. “There is a significant amount of bias, and it comes from the people who are authoring the content.”

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have low trust in information from the federal government about the environment, foreign affairs, elections and politics, abortion or immigration — saying they trust it “only a little” or “not at all.”

Mistrust in what the federal government says has risen at least slightly on nearly every topic that was asked about in an AP-NORC/ USAFacts survey from 2019. That includes education — which has risen from 37% in 2019 to 53% now — with a 9-percentage point spike in the last year.

The findings come after a year and a half of upheaval in the executive branch. Trump began to dismantle key parts of the federal bureaucracy soon after entering the White House for the second time, moving to end longstanding programs and shutter entire agencies.

Since then, thousands of federal employees have been fired or left their jobs, substantially reducing the ranks of the government statisticians and leading experts to warn about risks to data quality.

Shifting regulations and recommendations have also led to dramatic changes in government policy. Recent changes to longstanding health advice have put doctors and medical organizations at odds with the Trump administration on vaccination recommendations. Earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency rescinded a scientific finding that has underpinned government action to fight climate change for more than a decade.

Jeremy Cove, a 44-year-old Republican from Missouri, trusts the Trump administration's guidance on matters like vaccines, but he disagrees with their assertion that climate change is not happening, or that humans are not contributing to it.

“I love Trump; I voted for Trump, but some of the things he’s doing just makes me distrust more,” Cove said. “Stuff like renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, it just makes you think about what their priorities are. Then you realize it’s not what it should be, which in turn, makes you distrust even more.”

The gap between Republicans' and Democrats' trust in government information is much wider than it was during Trump's first term, a shift that first began to appear under former President Joe Biden.

Democrats were generally less likely to trust government information in Trump's first term, but not dramatically more than Republicans. That shifted when control of the White House changed hands. Republicans' mistrust in government information rose while Biden was president and fell after Trump took office. Meanwhile, Democrats' doubts declined under Biden and spiked when Trump regained power.

For example, 61% of Democrats now have low trust in information about the federal budget, compared with 42% of Republicans, while 60% of Democrats have low trust in information about crime, compared with only 32% of Republicans.

Larry Haith, a 76-year-old Republican from Idaho, says he tends to trust the federal government — though, he acknowledges that it can vary based on the current administration.

“Generally speaking, I’ve got more confidence in the federal government today than I’ve had in years,” he said.

Independents, meanwhile, became more mistrustful of government information under Biden and haven't shifted under Trump.

The only issue without a substantial partisan divide in the new survey is vaccination recommendations and safety: about 6 in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents trust the federal government on vaccination recommendations and safety “only a little” or “not at all.”

As the 2026 midterms approach, public concern about the accuracy of the election results is widespread. Just under half of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned the federal government will publicly discredit or question election results, tamper with election results, or pressure state election officials to change how they certify or report results.

Over the past few months, Trump has repeated long-debunked allegations of mass voter fraud in the 2020 election, attempted to place new restrictions on mail voting in time for the midterms and pushed Congress to enact a proof-of-citizenship requirement to register and vote. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has also warned state officials that they could lose funding or face investigations if they fail to go along with Trump's election security demands.

At the same time, few Americans trust the information they get from political campaigns. Only about 1 in 10 U.S. adults say the Democratic Party or Republican Party campaign messages are “always” or “often” based in factual information.

In a sign of how deep the mistrust runs, only about one-quarter of Democrats trust their party's campaign messages to be factual at least “often,” while a similar share of Republicans say this about their party.

Less than half of Democrats, 44%, trust government certifications of election results “a great deal” or “quite a bit,” a substantial decline from 65% in 2024.

Even with Trump back in the White House, though, Republicans haven't seen a similar increase in confidence. Only 29% of Republicans have high trust in government certifications of election results, up just slightly from 2024.

Trust in other sources of information about election outcomes — such as national news outlets or cable news networks — is also low overall.

Kim Murza, a Democrat from Colorado, has faith in the country's ability to run fair elections but blames the Trump administration for eroding Americans' trust in the process.

“My concern is more about what the current administration is doing,” said 45-year-old Murza. “I think they are doing whatever they can to try to put that distrust in people’s minds.”

The AP-NORC/USA Facts poll of 1,036 adults was conducted July 29 to Aug. 10 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.4 for Republicans overall and plus or minus 6.0 for Democrats overall.

FILE - Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs speaks during a news conference at which the state attorney general announced a federal lawsuit challenging President Donald Trump's executive order attempting to overhaul elections in the U.S., in Seattle, April 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Manuel Valdes, File)

FILE - Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs speaks during a news conference at which the state attorney general announced a federal lawsuit challenging President Donald Trump's executive order attempting to overhaul elections in the U.S., in Seattle, April 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Manuel Valdes, File)

In the photo of a computer screen, a Google map showing Lake Ontario renamed as Lake America is seen Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

In the photo of a computer screen, a Google map showing Lake Ontario renamed as Lake America is seen Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

FILE - President Donald Trump holds up an image taken from his Truth Social account as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. watches during a meeting to sign an executive order about vaccines, Monday, Aug. 10, 2026, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

FILE - President Donald Trump holds up an image taken from his Truth Social account as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. watches during a meeting to sign an executive order about vaccines, Monday, Aug. 10, 2026, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

DOONBEG, Ireland (AP) — Rory McIlroy says the expected visit of President Donald Trump at this week's Irish Open poses logistical challenges, and that the atmosphere will be different.

A White House official said last month that Trump planned to attend the tournament at his Doonbeg golf course in County Clare on the Atlantic coast of Ireland, which is hosting the Irish Open for the first time.

His trip to the course will require extra security measures, as it did when he attended the Cadillac Championship at his Trump National Doral course near Miami this year, and when he attended the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black in New York.

“I think when the sitting president of the United States of America visits anywhere, it becomes a logistical challenge,” McIlroy said Wednesday. “There’s a lot that goes into it.

"They obviously have to lock down a specific area and make sure that it’s safe for him to travel into, and the entire delegation, whoever that is. Logistically, it provides a bit of a challenge but we are at one of his properties that he has kindly provided for us to play a golf tournament.

“His presence at the Irish Open makes it a truly international event,” McIlroy said. “That brings more attention and eyeballs to the Irish Open, and it can only be a good thing.”

BBC Northern Ireland said Trump might present the trophy on Sunday, which he did at the 2017 Presidents Cup across from New York City during his first term in office.

Either way, McIlroy expects the atmosphere to be changed.

“I don’t know what the protocol will be on Saturday when the president arrives,” he said. “Look, is it a little disruptive to play? Absolutely. But again, there’s protocols in place for a reason, and all we can do is follow them and abide by them, and whenever we’re ready to play again, we put our heads down and we go and play.”

McIlroy confirmed he played a role in getting the Irish Open to Trump International. He has a U.S. base in Florida, he knows Eric Trump and their children go to the same school.

McIlroy said the European tour sought his opinion on whether Doonbeg would be suitable for the event. “I said, ‘Look, I haven’t been there but from all accounts, I hear it’s a very, very good golf course with accommodation onsite. The Irish Open has not been in this part of the world in several years, since Lahinch in 2019. I think it would be a good thing.”

Trump bought the Doonbeg course out of receivership in 2014. This will be the second European tour event at a Trump property. The Nexo Championship was held last month at his golf course in Aberdeen, Scotland.

The PGA Tour hosted a signature event at the Trump course near Miami, and the LIV Golf League held an event at Trump National in New Jersey. The only tournament Trump missed at one of his courses this year was Aberdeen.

See AP’s full golf coverage here

President Donald Trump claps after speaking during the Tunnel to Towers Foundation event for the 25th Anniversary of 9/11, on the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

President Donald Trump claps after speaking during the Tunnel to Towers Foundation event for the 25th Anniversary of 9/11, on the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, hits from the seventh fairway during the final round of the PGA Tour Championship golf tournament Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)

Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, hits from the seventh fairway during the final round of the PGA Tour Championship golf tournament Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)

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