UN Tourism cuts 2026 global travel growth forecast

UN Tourism slashed its 2026 international arrival growth forecast to 1–2 percent on Thursday, down from January's 3–4 percent projection, citing Middle East conflicts and surging travel costs.

The latest edition of the World Tourism Barometer showed that international tourist arrivals rose by just 0.4 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026. Around 690 million tourists traveled internationally during the period, about three million more than a year earlier.

International arrivals increased by two percent in the first quarter, but fell by one percent in the second quarter. In June alone, arrivals declined by three percent year-on-year.

Africa recorded a 4-percent increase in international arrivals in the first six months of the year, followed by Europe with three percent and the Americas with two percent. Arrivals in Asia and the Pacific rose by one percent, but remained 11 percent below 2019 levels.

The Middle East saw international arrivals decline by 22 percent as conflict directly affected the region, according to the report.

Due to the latest round of conflict in the Middle East, several major aviation hubs in the region saw widespread flight cancellations and delays starting in March. However, as the situation evolves, the aviation industry is now showing signs of recovery.

"So today we recovered 93 percent of our capacity already. We recovered almost 98 percent of the network back to where we left it pre-conflict," said Adnan Kazim, Emirates Airline's deputy president and chief commercial officer.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said that the latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile. The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself and serves as a clear reminder that, in such a connected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere and not just when a crisis begins.

UN Tourism said its revised outlook would depend on the duration of the conflict and its impact on oil prices and overall inflation.

High prices and uncertainty are expected to keep travelers focused on value for money, with many likely to choose destinations closer to home or opt for domestic travel, the report said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on Friday that it had been informed that the cooling tower of a reactor unit of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in the Russian Federation was hit by a drone early on Thursday.

"It was reported that the unit was operating at the time, but its operating mode did not change and there was no fire," said the IAEA in a social media post on Friday.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted that "all attacks on nuclear facilities are unacceptable", while calling for "maximum military restraint to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident."

Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom said on Friday that a Ukrainian drone crashed and exploded on the cooling tower of Unit 1 of Phase II of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, causing "minor damage."

The unit is continuing to operate at 100 percent power. The safe operation of the nuclear power plant is guaranteed, and radiation levels around the plant remain within the normal range, said Rosatom.