Chinese mainland markets wrapped up their first full trading week since the National Day holiday with mixed results, capped by a dramatic last-minute recovery in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index amid signs of major investor intervention, according to a market analyst.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24 percent to close at 3,716.28 points on Friday, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.12 percent to settle at 11,802.46 points. The ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board for growth enterprises, lost 0.39 percent to finish at 2,772.38 points.
Timothy Pope, a market analyst at China Global Television Network (CGTN), said the session was a roller coaster for mainland investors.
"It's been a bit of a mixed end to the first full trading week since China's National Day holiday, and today's session was quite the roller coaster for the Chinese mainland markets. We had a strong morning rally, followed by a sharp afternoon reversal and then an extraordinary last-minute recovery for the Shanghai Composite Index. It finished 0.25 percent higher, having recovered almost a full percentage point in just the final 15 minutes of trading. The Shenzhen Component [Index] was down 0.1 percent and the ChiNext board, though, was down 0.4 percent -- both though having recovered from some steeper losses in the afternoon. Real estate, energy and consumer stocks were among the stronger performers. We had healthcare, technology and financial shares really struggling, though," he said.
Pope attributed the extraordinary late-session bounce in the Shanghai Composite partially to the expiration of stock index futures and options contracts, which often triggers significant portfolio repositioning. However, he also pointed to possible intervention by large institutional investors.
"One possible explanation for the last-minute bounce is the stock index futures and options contracts expired today. That can trigger some significant repositioning towards the end of the session. But there's also growing speculation that China's so-called national team of state-backed investment firms is returning to the market to put a floor under share prices. Bloomberg and Chinese financial media have reported some really extraordinary activity in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this week. On Thursday alone, one ETF tracking the CSI 300 attracted almost 19 billion yuan (about 2.84 billion U.S. dollars) in net inflows. And there was some even more tremendous activity in broader equity ETFs as well. And almost 90 percent of the trading in that single CSI 300 fund happened in just the last half hour of the session. So there are certainly some signs of very big investors stepping in to support the market, although no confirmation yet that those buyers are from the big state-backed funds," he said.
Growing concerns over AI valuations and the massive capital costs of building AI infrastructure continue to weigh on tech shares, Pope noted, even as investors brace for a heavy week of macroeconomic data.
"The weakness that we saw in tech shares also fits with what we've seen across global markets this month. There's growing concern about AI company valuations and the enormous costs of building out AI infrastructure, and whether future revenues can really justify that spending. And those concerns extend to companies supplying the AI industry as well, and China has plenty of those. What was interesting about today's session is that the stronger contributions to the Shanghai Composite [Index] came from companies like Petro China, Zijin Mining and Kweichow Moutai rather than a broad recovery or a buyback into the technology sector. Looking ahead, we've got China's third-quarter GDP figures due on Monday along with retail sales, industrial production and investment data. And those are certainly going to give investors plenty to chew on when the markets open on Monday," said the analyst.
Chinese mainland markets stage last-minute recovery amid speculation of big-investor support: analyst
