Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a midterm edge. It didn't work

WASHINGTON (AP) — At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans in eight states redrew the boundaries of dozens of congressional districts over the past year while angling for an edge that could help them hold onto a slim House majority in a tough midterm election.

Ultimately, it didn't work.

Republicans lost most of the Democratic-held seats they had targeted to flip, lost others they had banked on retaining and got swept out of power by a Democratic surge fueled by voter dissatisfaction with Trump, the economy and the war with Iran.

The Republican redistricting plan fell flat in Alabama, Florida and Texas. It got scuttled by courts in Missouri and then firmly defeated by its voters Tuesday. And it got offset in California, where a retaliatory Democratic redistricting flipped all five of the Republican-held seats it targeted.

“This is a catastrophic rebuke of Donald Trump’s failed effort to gerrymander the country into oblivion to save the U.S. House of Representatives for himself," John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said Wednesday.

Congressional voting districts typically are redrawn after a census at the start of each decade to account for population changes. But Trump spurred an unusual mid-decade redistricting battle last year when he urged Texas Republicans to reshape U.S. House districts to give the GOP a shot at winning five additional seats in the midterm election.

A cascade of redistricting followed, spurred along in the South by a Supreme Court ruling that weakened federal Voting Rights Act protections for majority Black districts. Republicans hoped their redistricting could net as many as four more seats in Florida, two in Ohio and one each in Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina and Tennessee.

In all but one of those revamped districts, Trump would have carried over 54% of the vote had they been in place for the 2024 election, according to Associated Press estimates.

“In normal times, that sort of district is relatively safe,” said Justin Levitt, a professor at the Loyola Law School in Los Angeles who runs the “All About Redistricting” website.

But the presumed Republican districts got undercut by shifting viewpoints of Trump. The AP Voter Poll found about 6 in 10 disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency. Views of Trump’s priorities also were mostly negative.

“If we look across the country, that entire mid-decade redistricting gambit was a complete bust for Republicans,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

In Texas, Republicans won just one of the five seats they had targeted to flip. But Democrats flipped two Republican-held districts, putting the GOP at a net loss.

Republicans reconfigured three heavily Latino districts in the Rio Grande Valley, which had shifted toward Trump in 2024, to try to boost their chances of unseating Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez. But both won reelection Tuesday. And Democrats instead unseated Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, whose district is sandwiched between theirs.

Though De La Cruz's new district retained the same percentage of Trump-inclined voters as the 2024 version, about 3 in 5 voting-age residents were new — making it harder for her to compete against Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido, a well-known Latin Grammy award winner.

The AP Voter Poll indicates a substantial shift in Hispanics moving away from Republicans compared with Trump’s victory just two years ago. Nationally about one-third of Hispanics say they backed the Republican in their local U.S. House race, while roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump two years ago.

The new Texas districts were drawn by Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.

“Trying to pick up five seats in Texas, without putting anything else in serious jeopardy, it was a Herculean task,” Kincaid said Wednesday. He added: “It required the trends that we had been seeing over the past several years to continue, and that did not happen.”

Had Republicans not redrawn the Texas districts, however, they likely would have lost even more seats, Kincaid said.

Republicans in Florida tried to tilt four more House seats to the GOP in Trump’s adopted home state. Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz was among their targets, but he decided to run anyway in one of the redrawn districts. He won reelection Tuesday.

“I’ve worked across the aisle. I’ve delivered results for my community, and they spent $26 million trying to beat me,” Moskowitz said after his victory in Florida’s 25th Congressional District. “They lit that money on fire tonight.”

He said voters in his new district, like those nationwide, were most concerned about the economy and their ability to afford a good quality of life. But he said that redistricting angered voters, too.

After redistricting, about two-thirds of voting-age residents were new to the district represented by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor. But she also won reelection. Democrat Pia Dandiya won yet another district -- an open seat in southern Florida — that Republicans had reshaped for an advantage.

In Alabama, a Supreme Court ruling allowed the Republican-led Legislature to revert to what the GOP considered to be a friendlier map. But Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures won reelection anyway, defying Republicans' plans.

Republicans redrew two congressional districts in eastern North Carolina with a goal of unseating Democratic Rep. Don Davis in the 1st Congressional District, which has sent a Black member to Congress for more than 30 years. They made Davis' district a bit more Republican by bringing in thousands of voters from the 3rd Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Greg Murphy. In exchange, they reassigned thousands of voters in Democratic-leaning areas to Murphy's district.

The ensuing advertising battle for Davis' seat cost well over $50 million, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, ranking among the most expensive House races nationally.

Davis held a slight lead Wednesday, and the race between Murphy and Democratic challenger Raymond Smith was particularly close.

What started as a Republican redistricting effort could become a Democratic redistricting movement ahead of the presidential election.

Maryland voters on Tuesday approved a constitutional amendment that will make it easier for the state's Democratic-led General Assembly to redraw districts to the party's advantage. Democratic proponents, backed by former President Barack Obama, have touted it as a way to “stop Trump.”

Democrats who made gains in numerous state legislatures Tuesday also could use that power for redistricting — most notably in Wisconsin, where districts were tilted toward Republicans. And Democratic lawmakers in New York already have taken an initial step toward congressional redistricting before the 2028 elections.

But the recent midterm redistricting revealed it can be difficult to anticipate voter behavior when trying to gerrymander districts for partisan advantage. That could particularly be the case for the next presidential election, which would be the first in a dozen years without Trump's name atop the ballot, making it hard to know how his supporters would realign behind new candidates.

The midterm election "shows districts aren’t destiny – that if voters actually show up, they can overcome district lines,” Levitt said.

Associated Press writer Bill Barrow contributed to this report.

Santiago Rivera paints on a sign outside a polling place after casting his ballot on Election Day during the midterm election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Clayton, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., mingles with supporters at an election night event, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Montgomery, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

Democratic House candidate Bobby Pulido arrives at a polling location at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley's Student Academic Center on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Edinburg, Texas. (Raquel Natalicchio/Houston Chronicle via AP)

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — The two major candidates in Alaska's U.S. Senate race urged supporters to be patient as results began coming in late Tuesday, delivering rousing speeches and expressing confidence against the backdrop of the fallout from allegations of partisan tricks to recruit a candidate with the same name as the Republican incumbent.

The race headlined by two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola had been among those expected to play a role in determining which party gained control of the Senate. Democrats had won control before polls closed Tuesday night in Alaska.

“Lower 48 blue wave. But we're different,” Sullivan told supporters after initial results were reported. Peltola during her election night party said: "We are getting our government back.”

The race brought top Republican officials to Alaska to rally for Sullivan, including President Donald Trump, who placed particular focus on a third candidate in the race, retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan. Trump called him “fake” and ordered that the Justice Department sue to block certification if the incumbent loses, pending an investigation into potential voter confusion.

The lawsuit, filed less than two weeks before the ranked vote election, was dismissed by a federal judge, prompting a Justice Department appeal.

The race remained too early to call.

The candidacy of Dan J. Sullivan, who won 2.5% of the vote in the August open primary and qualified for the general election with a top-four finish, dominated attention in the final days of the race after The New York Times reported that Peltola’s campaign appeared to be involved in efforts to recruit him. The report revived long-held suspicions raised by the incumbent and his allies that Dan J. Sullivan was a “sham” candidate intent on confusing voters.

Peltola denied involvement in any such efforts, and Dan J. Sullivan, who lives in the small fishing community of Petersburg, has denied any contact with Peltola’s campaign. He has not returned messages in recent days.

Peltola appeared to reference the controversy in her speech late Tuesday, saying she was looking out on a room of people who are “smart people and know exactly who they’re voting for.”

The Justice Department last week confirmed the existence of a criminal investigation, but Alaska U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman would not say what potential crimes authorities were looking into or the targets of their probe. Donors to Dan J. Sullivan’s campaign have said that FBI agents have asked if they felt deceived by the lesser-known Sullivan.

The ballot distinguished the two as Dan S. Sullivan, Republican and incumbent, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., with no party affiliation.

The senator, speaking to reporters after voting in Anchorage earlier Tuesday, called the controversy “the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of the state of Alaska" and called into question Peltola's denials.

“The whole scheme treats all of us Alaskans with disrespect,” he said.

Alaska accepts ballots that are postmarked by Election Day for up to 15 days after the election from overseas voters. That makes Nov. 18 the deadline for final receipt of ballots and when tabulations under the state’s ranked choice voting system will be done. Under Alaska’s system, rankings come into play if no candidate earns more than 50% of the first-choice votes.

Peltola held a significant lead over the incumbent early in the count, but the race tightened considerably, with Sullivan eventually overtaking the Democrat. Both candidates were below the 50%-plus one threshold of first-choice votes required to win outright. More returns are required to determine whether either candidate will exceed 50% or whether ranked choice tabulations will be triggered.

Peltola was at times giddy during her election night speech, even taking a selfie with the crowd. But she said that while they were all ready to celebrate, “the results are not going to be fast.”

“It’s going to take a long time to make sure we’re counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community, from every tiny outpost, from all of our service members serving overseas, our young people going to colleges,” she said.

Sullivan also told his supporters it would take time to get final results. But he said he was confident that when all votes were counted, he'd win reelection.

Marilyn Moses, who says that she has known Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola for all of Peltola's life, becomes emotional during an election night event for Peltola Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Lainey Diaz., 3, waits for mom Justise Diaz to finish voting at Midtown Mall on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

From left, Wren Peterson, Travis Peterson, and Tristen Peterson vote at the Hope Retreat Center on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Hope, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, gets a sticker after voting at the Alaska Zoo on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Mary Peltola, center, a Democrat running for Alaska's U.S. Senate seat, speaks with voters during a Get Out the Vote Rally in Fairbanks, Alaska, on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. (Jack Barnwell/Fairbanks Daily News-Miner via AP)

Competing yard signs for Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, are seen Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Whit sits on the shoulders of father Hayden Anderson-Michaud as he casts his ballot at a polling location open for early voting at the Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Wasilla, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at the Alaska Aviation Museum, Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, speaks during a rally at Ginger's Restaurant, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Soldotna, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)