China's oil consumption is expected to reach its peak in 2025, according to an annual industry report on domestic and international oil and gas development released in Beijing on Tuesday.
The report suggests that China's energy sector saw steady progress on green low-carbon transition over the past year. Renewable energy has become the dominant source in the power generation mix, while refined oil consumption has entered a downward trajectory for the country.
According to the report, China continued to maintain a global leading position in green and low-carbon energy transition in 2024, with non-fossil energy investments accounting for one-third of the global total. The electrification rate of end-use energy consumption rose to approximately 29 percent, while the share of oil in the country's primary energy consumption structure declined.
In 2024, China's apparent oil consumption totaled 756 million tons, with refined oil consumption at 390 million tons, marking a 1.7 percent year-on-year decline.
"Our refined oil consumption has essentially reached its peak, mainly due to the rapid development of new energy, particularly the fast-paced iteration of new energy vehicles. However, demand for aviation kerosene and petrochemical feedstock - especially the oil and gas consumption for high-end chemical new materials - is still growing rapidly," said Lu Ruquan, president of the China National Petroleum Corporation Economics and Technology Research Institute.
The report highlights that with economic restructuring, improvements in energy efficiency, and changes in transportation and energy use patterns, China's oil and petrochemical market is undergoing a period of transformation and restructuring. The growth momentum of oil demand is shifting, characterized by a decline in refined oil consumption and an increase in petrochemical oil demand.
China still needs to maintain a certain level of oil and gas supply at the current stage, according to a National Energy Administration official at the report's release event.
"We need to enhance self-sufficiency, expand the exploitation of oil and gas resources - especially unconventional resources. We need to maintain investment levels, and improve support policies to ensure that China's crude oil production remains stable at 200 million tons annually and that the natural gas self-sufficiency rate stays above 50 percent," said Han Yuzhu, deputy director of the National Energy Administration's Oil and Natural Gas Department.
The report predicted that in 2025 China's oil and natural gas reserves remain high, with 1 billion tons of added oil reserves and 1 trillion cubic meters of added natural gas reserves. China's total refined oil demand will reach its peak, at 382 million tons, reflecting a 1.9 percent year-on-year decline, according to the report.
China's oil consumption to peak in 2025: report
