The unusually early heatwaves in India are impacting the country's wheat production, creating an urgent situation that worries both farmers and industry insiders. They warn that a smaller harvest could affect domestic supply and even global prices.
With forecasts predicting above-average temperatures over the next three months, concerns are mounting that this year's wheat output will decline due to climate change.
Scientists estimate that a one-degree Celsius rise in temperature could reduce wheat output by five percent. A poor wheat harvest in India would impact global prices and the countries that rely on it as their main supplier.
Spending most of his time in the fields tending to his wheat crop, Sher Singh, a farmer in India's Rohtak, has been increasingly anxious. He said grain formation has just started, and he worries that the continued temperature rise will shrink his harvest.
"If temperatures rise, it will impact our production. If it gets too hot, we see a 25 to 30 percent decrease in production. You see, right now, the grain formation is just starting, but if the weather gets too hot, the grain will shrivel. It will be smaller in size, weigh less, and result in a lower yield," he said.
According to the government, wheat was sown across 32 million hectares of farmland during this season, about three percent more than last year. Indian meteorologists said their forecast predicts an unusually long heatwave that is set to impact northern and central parts of the country.
"During the season, if the temperature will be above normal, we are expecting above normal number of days of heat wave conditions. Over the entire heat corridor for June, which consists of northern India and central India," said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department.
The challenges posed by rising temperatures in the pre-harvest phase are worrying industry experts as well, with some saying that to tackle a smaller harvest, the country should seek to import more grain from the international market rather than banning exports.
"If they ban the export of wheat, that will suffice the needs of the country. But I don't think banning export is the right decision. In fact, they should open imports. So, if the country needs (wheat) that will be made from the international market," said Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India.
Unusually early heatwaves threaten India's wheat production
