Trump making up numbers, you bold enough to challenge him?

When an important policy is implemented, the market will react. Trump's tariff policy caused the US stock market to plummet for two consecutive days, losing about $640 million (nearly 50 trillion Hong Kong dollars) in market value. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell publicly admitted that the tariff shock exceeded expectations, and Paul Krugman, winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics, a well-known expert on international trade theory, even bluntly said that Trump was crazy. He pointed out that his tariff policy is not only a mistake in economic logic, but also likely to trigger a global trade war and cause far-reaching damage to the US and world economies.

Many people have pointed out that Trump's tariffs are similar to the tariff laws passed by the United States in 1930. The 1930 Act, which was notorious in the United States, was introduced in response to the Great Depression, but it caused an even greater economic crisis, a sharp contraction of American international trade, and an even worse Great Depression in the world.

There are two major differences between Trump's global tariff campaign and the 1930 tariff laws. First, the 1930 Tariff Act was a protectionist policy, raising tariffs on more than 20,000 imports, while Trump imposed so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on the world's trade rivals, regardless of what goods they had. Second, the Tariff Act of 1930 was passed by Congress; Trump, however, is on his own, Congress has no role at all, and Trump is doing whatever he wants.

Seeing Trump lightly holding a piece of cardboard at a press conference in the Rose Garden of the White House, saying that tariffs would be imposed on this country by 34% and tariffs on that country by 49%, many people sweated on their foreheads and couldn't help but worry about the return of the Great Depression.

Trump stressed that the tariffs are "reciprocal tariffs”, and he will impose the tariffs on imports into the United States the same level as the other countries impose on goods imported from the United States. However, the comments seen on the internet all believe that the data does not reflect the facts. Krugman bluntly said that the tariff data cited by Trump was grossly inaccurate. For example, he said, Trump claims that the European Union imposes 39 percent tariffs on American goods, but the actual average tax rate is only 1.7 percent. In addition, China's tariffs are exaggerated at 67 percent, but WTO data show an average tax rate of only 4.9 percent in 2024.

A financial reporter in the United States also found that Trump's tariff calculation was wrong. There is a free trade agreement between the United States and South Korea, but why is South Korea's tariff rate calculated at 50%? Naturally, he also noticed that the EU did not impose a 39% tariff on the United States at all, where did this figure come from?

Ocean

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When Trump campaigned, he said that he did not start a war in four years of his first term as president of the United States, and that he did not like war. He began his second term as president on January 20, and less than two months later, on March 15, he launched his first war since taking office, with massive air strikes against Yemen. At the same time, he repeatedly declared to the world that he wanted to "take back" control of the Panama Canal, not to mention the use of military means to obtain Greenland.

It is not difficult to see Trump's intention to control the world's maritime transportation channels as a deployment for the whole world and global trade. As we all know, there are four fortresses on the world's seaborne trade routes, the first of which is the Strait of Malacca where the Pacific Ocean enters the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The strategic location of this fortress has been a battleground since ancient times, and it is especially important for China, which accounts for 60% of its global trade through the strait. The United States, which already has a military base in Singapore, has effectively taken control of the Strait of Malacca. The second stronghold is the Panamanian Port and Canal, where China has 20% of its trade turnover. Trump's big push to "take back" the Panama Canal is to control the shipping lanes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and to kill 20% of China's trade at any time. The third is the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea fortresses, as long as this route is controlled, the trade volume here can be completely controlled by the United States. This also explains why Trump has launched an airstrike on Yemen at the Red Sea Coast. The fourth fortress is the Arctic Ocean Route. As the planet warms and glaciers melt, the Arctic Ocean shipping lanes are getting busier; China's trade to Europe can be shortened by about 40 percent through this route. When Trump was in his first president term, he had already said that he wanted to buy Greenland, and now he has threatened to take control of Greenland by military means if the purchase nor encouraging Greenland's independence does not work. Mr. Trump did this ostensibly for the island's rare earth resources, but more importantly for control of the Arctic Ocean shipping lanes.

External ports are strategic assets for any country, and commercial operations can play a good role in a healthy global trade ecology. Today, however, the United States is clearly hostile to China, and its president is so ostentatiously seeking control of the world's most important ports and sea routes in order to one day cut off China's overseas trade. Knowing this background, it is not rocket science to judge whether the purchase and sale of Panama port terminals is a simple and pure commercial deal.