TORONTO (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have upended Canada’s election and improved the fortunes of the Liberal Party, which could win a fourth consecutive term in power next week.
The Liberals and the country's new prime minister, Mark Carney, looked headed for a crushing defeat in Monday's election until the American president started attacking Canada’s economy and even threatening its sovereignty, including suggesting it should become the 51st state.
Trump’s dumping on Canada has infuriated its people and stoked a surge in Canadian nationalism that has helped the Liberals flip the election narrative.
“Trump has immersed himself into our lives and has defined the ballot question,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said.
“What Trump has done is shed light on who we are,” he said.
Even separatists in French-speaking Quebec “are very much aligned with other Canadians in defending the country and responding very firmly to the fact that we’re not going to be the 51st state,” Charest said.
The opposition Conservative Party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.
But Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned and Carney, a two-time central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader and prime minister.
”We were looking at a scenario where the Conservatives were going to rake in a huge majority,” said Charest, a Conservative. “Here we are months later in another world.”
Trump's trade war and attacks have led Canadians to cancel trips to the U.S. and refuse to buy American goods. And it might have contributed to record early voting, with 7.3 million Canadians casting ballots before election day.
Carney said the 80-year period when the U.S. embraced the mantle of global economic leadership and forged alliances rooted in trust and respect is over.
“The key question in this election is who is the best to respond that. Who will stand up to President Trump?” he said.
Poilievre, a career politician and firebrand populist, has campaigned with Trump-like bravado, even taking a page from the “America First” president by adopting the slogan “Canada First.” But his similarities in style to Trump might cost him.
In a mid-January poll by Nanos, Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47% to 20%. In the latest Nanos poll that ended April 23, the Liberals led by 4 percentage points. The January poll had a margin of error of 3.1 points while the latest poll had a 2.7-point margin.
Until a few months ago, Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become the next prime minister and shepherd the Conservatives back into power for the first time in a decade.
Ian Brodie, a former chief of staff to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said it's frustrating that this year's Conservative campaign plan had to change so drastically.
“At least 40% of the electorate is just petrified about the continued existence of the country,” Brodie said. "... In a sense, it is a once-in-a-lifetime lineup of forces that works against everything Pierre been doing since he got himself into politics.”
Brodie said a Conservative win will be tough and that the party's situation might not improve anytime soon, noting support for a small progressive party, the New Democrats, has been shrinking for years, making it a two-party struggle.
“If you are into two-party competition for the foreseeable future, then you have to be much closer to the center of the political spectrum than the Conservatives have been,” Brodie said.
“That means there is going to be a deeper rethinking of Conservative campaign strategy, including choice of leader.”
Whoever the next prime minister is will face challenges.
Both Carney and Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of the countries’ free trade deal in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.
Carney, in particular, has notable experience navigating economic crises, having done so when he ran Canada’s central bank and when he later became the first non-U.K. citizen to run the Bank of England since its founding in 1694.
“The problems are really inconceivable, worse than any Canadian prime minister has had to face, I think ever," said Robert Bothwell, a University of Toronto professor of Canadian history and international relations.
“Not only is Carney the luckiest guy alive and came in at absolutely the right moment, but once he actually starts having to administer the country, the Trump problem, the American problem, is just inconceivable," he said. "It’s like being handed a sack full of rabid beavers.”
FILE - Mark Carney, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, embraces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after being announced the winner at the Liberal Leadership Event in Ottawa, Ontario, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
FILE - Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a news conference in Ottawa, March 14, 2025. (Chris Tanouye/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
FILE - Liberal Party of Canada Leader Mark Carney delivers his speech after being announced as the winner of the party leadership in Ottawa, Ontario, March 9, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
