A professor from New York University (NYU) has called on the Trump administration to outline a clearer "time horizon" for its tariff policies in order to give greater economic certainty, while expressing his optimism that the current intense trade dispute between the U.S. and China will eventually be brought back down to a more mutually acceptable level.
Nicholas Economides, professor of economics at NYU's Stern School of Business, gave his assessment on the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures in an interview with the China Global Television Network (CGTN) on Wednesday.
Commenting on the latest economic data which showed the U.S. experienced a 0.3 percent drop in GDP while seeing a 41.3 percent growth in imports in the first quarter, Economides said the sharp rise in imports likely came as many companies were effectively stockpiling before Trump's long-expected tariffs took effect.
He noted that the difference between the import figures and the slump in GDP can be simply attributed to "accounting."
"I think the mass increase in imports was because of the anticipation of tariffs. And how does it make a difference on the GDP? It's just the way accounting works. So, this number is bigger. So, other numbers are smaller. So, that's how GDP appears smaller. There is no magic to it, it's just accounting," he said.
Trump, who on Tuesday marked the 100th day of his second term in office, sought to pin the blame for the economic contraction in the first quarter squarely on his predecessor Joe Biden, stating in a social media post that it was the Biden administration that left "bad numbers," while calling on Americans to "be patient" over his tariff policy.
The economic fallout from Trump's tariffs has wreaked havoc on global markets and created a cloud of uncertainty, and Economides said it's important that the Trump administration sets out its long-term objectives and gives a clearer time-frame of how long it intends to pursue this trade strategy, in order to give more businesses more stability.
"From my point of view, as an economist, I would say it's very, very important for the Trump administration to explain what exactly it's trying to do with tariffs and whether the tariffs are going to be a short-run negotiating tool, or they're going to be there for some time, a year or longer, to make sure that companies come back to the United States or to collect money. So, these are completely different goals, and the Trump administration and the secretary of the Treasury, they have to explain how exactly they expect things to work, and especially in what time horizon they expect things to work," he said.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have intensified since last month, with the White House hiking the total effective tariff rate on Chinese imports to 145 percent, while the Chinese side has vowed it would "fight till the end."
Given the potential risks and disruption of a prolonged trade dispute, Economides believes the two countries will eventually have to find a solution that will see these steep tariff rates pegged back to a more "reasonable" level for the good of both countries and the wider world.
"We are kind of in the early stages, I believe. But this present trade war is painful to both countries, both the United States and China. And there are very big incentives for both countries to find a way to create some compromise. I'm always a bit more optimistic than average, but I think that given how much pain there is on both countries, it will be the leadership of both countries [who] will find a way to start ratcheting down the numbers of the tariffs and eventually find a reasonable number in which both sides can live with and stay with that," he said.
NYU professor believes steep US-China tariffs will ratchet down to "reasonable" level
Doctoral students from the U.S. and China spent days together aboard a research vessel, collaborating on marine science projects and exchanges designed to foster deeper understanding and enduring friendships between the two countries' scientific communities.
In late March, 20 Chinese and U.S. students boarded a research vessel in Hong Kong, sailing via Ningbo to Shanghai as part of the "A Shared Voyage: China-U.S. Youth Friendship Program". Over 12 days, the students collaborated on marine science and cultural exchanges.
Since the launch of an initiative to invite 50,000 young Americans to China for exchange and study programs in a five-year span in November 2023, over 50,000 young Americans have visited China, achieving the target two-and-a-half years ahead of schedule.
Chinese and U.S. students who took part in the program wrote to Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, thanking him for the "50,000 in Five Years" initiative, which has provided valuable opportunities for young people of both countries to engage in learning and exchange.
To their surprise, Xi replied to the letter, encouraging the students to make new contributions to the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations.
In the letter, Xi said that the story of China-U.S. friendship is written by the people, and the future of China-U.S. relations is shaped by the youth.
"Hearing back from him was really crazy. I'd love for people to have more buy into what the project was all about, which was, shared friendship, shared science," said Benjamin Acosta, a Columbia University PhD student.
"He actually took the time to read our letter and even respond to it because I know he's very busy. I feel very honored," said Lesley Figueroa, a PhD student at UC Santa Barbara.
Chinese students also expressed gratitude for the opportunity to meet their U.S. counterparts and exchange ideas.
"We are truly grateful for the '50,000 in Five Years' initiative proposed by President Xi, which has offered young people from both China and the U.S. valuable opportunities for certainty in an otherwise turbulent international landscape. It's remarkable that we could come together aboard an American research vessel and carry out such meaningful scientific and cultural exploration in Chinese waters," said Niu Lishan, a PhD student at Tsinghua University.
Noting that young people, full of vitality and dreams, represent the future and hope of China-U.S. relations and of the world, Xi called on more Chinese and U.S. youth to take up the baton of friendship, learn from each other, progress together, and become "envoys of friendship" bridging the Pacific.
The voyage experience went beyond laboratories, allowing the future scientists to explore underwater robotics and water quality monitoring.
"I have never seen this many krill. It's really crazy. They've got a lot of larger species here, and that means that they probably have a lot of fish and other kinds of higher life forms that feed off this stuff. So it's probably the most productive waters I've seen," said Acosta.
"We learned to operate underwater robots for water quality sampling in shallow-water marine zones. We also collected samples firsthand and conducted related water quality monitoring and analysis," said Niu.
"I've never been on a ship before. I normally do, like I said, on smaller ships and in my lab by myself. With the greater community in this very high-tech environment and using a lot of instruments that I don't normally have access to, which is really incredible," said Meredith Kamm, another Columbia University PhD student.
"This kind of program plants a seed for future cooperation and exchange between China and the U.S., especially in areas such as marine science and climate change. It can help us work together to build a maritime community with a shared future," said Huang Wei, chief scientist of the voyage and researcher at the Second Institute of Oceanography of the Ministry of Natural Resources.
In the letter, Xi noted that through these interactions, young people from both countries have reached out to each other, deepened mutual understanding, forged profound friendships, and opened a new chapter in friendly exchanges between the two peoples.
"I think the United States and China have some of the best researchers in the world. I hope to gain a different perspective in something I've never considered before by talking to these students and understanding how their research works," said Natalie Lafont, a PhD student at Harvard University.
The program also gave the students the chance to meet industry leaders and innovators in the field of ocean exploration. Vincent Pieribone, OceanX co-CEO and chief science officer, said he encouraged the students to always keep their determiniation steady even in the face of failure.
"Science is a tough business and failure is all over, and both sides see that happens. And it's great to bring people together over a common goal, which is ocean stewardship and ocean science and ocean exploration," said Pieribone.
In addition to personal connections, the U.S. students said they were highly impressed with the investments that Chinese universities have made toward ensuring their students and scholars can make an impact.
"I feel like most all the labs at these universities were very well equipped with, not just marine equipment, but research equipment. Students who are there can do multiple, like a variety of projects. My favorite one was the School of Marine Science at Ningbo University. Because we got to see the aquaculture tanks. So there was a lot of tanks and they had a variety of fish. It seems that they really take aquaculture and fisheries as a priority," said Figueroa.
Yet, the focus of the voyage always returned to building lasting ties with their fellow students. Ray Dalio, founder of U.S. Bridgewater Associates and one of the program's initiators, encouraged the participants to take a long-term view of the voyage's impact.
"What I'd love to see is that you develop those relationships and that you stay in touch as a foundation for our future collaborations and friendships because you have a shared passion. Wouldn't that be great? Not just this mission, but the future of your relationships would be great, and think about how that could expand," Dalio said.
"In the face of profound changes unseen in a century and a turbulent world, and confronted with emerging issues such as climate change and artificial intelligence, young people in China and the United States shoulder a special mission. They should strengthen exchanges and cooperation, carry forward China-U.S. friendship, and continue to advance the development of China-U.S. relations," said Geng Shuang, vice president of the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs, at the April closing ceremony.
China, U.S. marine science students strengthen ties through ocean voyage
