Buffett Warns: US Dollar “Going To Hell” as Fiscal Woes Mount

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor whose career spans more than eight decades, issued a stark warning at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting, declaring that the US dollar is “going to hell.” The remark, delivered with characteristic candor, has reverberated across financial circles and prompted widespread speculation about the future trajectory of both the dollar and the broader American economy. Some observers liken Buffett’s pronouncement to a “Last Dance” * moment -- a final, dramatic flourish from one of the market’s most influential voices.

Buffett’s critique was unsparing. He took direct aim at Washington’s fiscal management, highlighting what he sees as reckless spending and an ever-expanding national debt that threatens the dollar’s long-term stability. “I think the problem of how you control revenue and expenses in the government is one that is never fully solved. We're operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time,” Buffett told shareholders. He further cautioned, “It’s a big mistake, in my view, when you have seven and a half billion people that don’t like you very well, and you got 300 million that are crowing in some way about how well they’ve done. I don’t think it’s right, and I don’t think it’s wise.” The subtext was unmistakable: Buffett’s frustration with the direction of US economic policy, particularly under the Trump administration, runs deep.

Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate Buffett leads, now commands a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion and holds $300 billion in liquid assets. As investors contemplate the company’s future in a post-Buffett era, questions abound: Will Berkshire shift its focus toward assets denominated in yen or euros? Despite his global perspective, Buffett ultimately reaffirmed his faith in the United States, asserting, “I do think that the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes-it won't be at our expense-the more prosperous we'll become and the safer we'll feel and your children will feel someday.” Fudan University Professor Shen Yi has noted that while Buffett demonstrates a clear-eyed understanding of America’s economic challenges, he is careful not to sound overly pessimistic, choosing instead to voice his concerns without resorting to alarmism.

Buffett’s warnings are not new. In the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, he sounded the alarm to both Wall Street and policymakers in Washington, though his cautions went largely unheeded. In the aftermath, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, speaking in a US interview, identified the sustainability of American hegemony -- not merely the perils of monetary expansion -- as the central issue. Lee argued that the United States cannot remain the world’s preeminent power if it fails to maintain its position in the Pacific. To preserve that role, he said, America must avoid worsening deficits and a weakening dollar. Should these trends persist, Lee warned, global financiers and hedge funds may lose confidence and shift their assets elsewhere, precipitating a crisis. In his view, fiscal discipline and a stable dollar are prerequisites for continued US leadership on the world stage.

Even as he acknowledged America’s vulnerabilities, Lee Kuan Yew at that time remained fundamentally optimistic about its prospects and was reluctant to overstate China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. He observed that while China is poised for decades of robust growth and aspires to surpass the United States, it will likely take at least a century to match America’s standards of living and technological sophistication. Lee further noted that contemporary Chinese leaders recognize the gap, particularly in technology and military capabilities, between their nation and the West.

The scale of America’s fiscal challenge is daunting. In 2009, US national debt stood at $12.4 trillion. According to recent figures from Xinhua, that figure has now soared to $36.2 trillion, with approximately $9.2 trillion set to mature in 2025 -- representing more than a quarter of the total.

Unless a radical solution such as issuing 100-year bonds that cannot be resold, pay no interest, and are purchased proportionally by over 190 countries, American hegemony could face a reckoning as soon as 2025. Should that scenario materialize, the dollar’s descent into “hell” may become more than just a metaphor.

*”The Last Dance” is currently one of the most popular Hong Kong-made movies featuring a family engaged in the funeral service.

Deep Blue

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

As spring arrives, I'm reminded of Du Fu's poem 'Spring View' from the Tang Dynasty, lamenting Zelensky's fate. Like the An Lushan Rebellion that led to the fall of Chang'an and Emperor Xuanzong's abdication, marking the decline of the Tang Dynasty, the Russia-Ukraine war may soon see resolution. However, Ukraine is destined to be left with nothing, all it once possessed scattered to the wind.

Last Friday at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Vice President Vance harshly criticized European countries and others. The U.S. demands that Europe increases its military spending—only 23 out of 32 NATO countries meet the 2% GDP defense spending target. Trump believes NATO members should raise this to 5%. Europe's reward for supporting America's proxy war is to pay an even larger "military tariff" to the US, while being excluded from Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Europe's beautiful vision of being one of the world's poles has shattered; they don't even measure up to being lackeys, and might be viewed as mere servants by the arrogant Trump.

However, Ukraine suffers the most. U.S. Defense Secretary Hagseth recently stated at NATO headquarters: "Restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is unrealistic. “ And he also stated that the US doesn't see Kyiv joining NATO as part of a peace plan. President Trump echoed from afar, saying that Putin won't allow Ukraine to join NATO. The 2014 Crimea dispute is no longer a dispute, and the Ukrainian territories occupied over the past three years are more likely to be incorporated into Russian territory. As if this weren't enough, the tens of billions of dollars in military aid for Ukraine's war effort aren't free. At the very least, you can't escape the US portion. Rumors suggest the White House intends to claim half of Ukraine's rare-earth elements as compensation.

Compared to the American aggression, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi seemed more amicable at the conference. In his speech, he used an inclusive tone, stating that China views Europe as a partner, not an adversary, and emphasized China's willingness to play a "constructive role" in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. During bilateral talks with German Chancellor Scholz, Wang Yi also said that China is willing to deepen its comprehensive cooperative relationship with Germany and called for China and the EU to "strengthen complementary advantages, deepen practical cooperation," "adhere to free trade, and practice multilateralism."

The above is based on a Deutsche Welle report. Western scholars ask: "Is China's goodwill towards Europe aimed at filling the power vacuum left by America's withdrawal from the international stage?" Graham Allison, the American scholar who proposed the "Thucydides Trap," affirms: "As a rising power, China will undoubtedly do its utmost to replace America's former role." Allison adds that Beijing has seized opportunities since Trump took office and immediately announced withdrawal from the World Health Organization and other international organizations. "Xi Jinping has noticed many opportunities here. If the U.S. doesn't play its cards right, Beijing will find it easier to succeed."

My view is simple and direct: The current international situation has been reshuffled, with America abandoning Europe to embrace Putin, freeing up resources to deal with China in the Asia-Pacific. As a result: 1) Small countries no longer have a say in global affairs; 2) American power is depleted, unable to maintain its "unipolar multi-strong" hegemony; 3) As we enter the 21st century, a "tripolar" world of China, Russia, and the U.S. has formed, dominating the globe. These three poles, running parallel, can continue to expand and strengthen globalization while simultaneously calculating for their national interests. One can expect exciting developments. In short: "Watch the geopolitical chessboard—as the East rises and the West falters, a crisis becomes a turning point."

Occupying the position of a great power means striving to be the best and strongest, with no room for compromise. From now on, we should abandon the cliché of "Who cares about the 'rise of great powers'? At least I don't." Today, we all witness the sorrow of "a broken nation, where mountains and rivers no longer exist." How can we not lament?