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Restoring Rule of Law in Hong Kong: A Difficult Transition

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Restoring Rule of Law in Hong Kong: A Difficult Transition
Blog

Blog

Restoring Rule of Law in Hong Kong: A Difficult Transition

2025-05-09 17:49 Last Updated At:17:49

For any society that has spent a long time neglecting the rule of law, the process of returning to legal order is neither swift nor painless.

China has been stressing the rule of law for more than 2000 years. During the Warring States Period, Qin Xiaogong ascended the throne in 361 BC, actively brought in talents, and enlisted Shang Yang to implement legal reforms. To convince a skeptical public that the law would definitely be enforced, Shang Yang erected a three-zhang-tall wooden pole at the southern gate of the capital, promising ten gold pieces to anyone who could carry it to the northern gate. When no one responded, he increased the reward to fifty gold pieces. Only then did someone step forward, and, true to his word, Shang Yang paid the reward. The episode, now known as “moving the pole to establish credibility,” marked a turning point in public trust toward the law.

Hong Kong’s own journey has been far less linear. In 2019, the city experienced a period of intense upheaval, fuelled in part by the opposition’s embrace of the notion of “Disobedience for Justice”. Benny Tai, a former associate professor at the University of Hong Kong’s law faculty, advocated for civil disobedience as a means to confront the government, arguing that the pursuit of justice could justify unlawful acts. He advanced this argument from within the very institution charged with training the city’s future legal professionals.

Such reasoning, however, does not withstand scrutiny. If the pursuit of justice alone were sufficient to override the law, there would be little reason to study statutes or case law. Legal education would become obsolete. Yet, in any society, there will be those willing to believe convenient falsehoods, and the idea that illegality can be justified by higher ideals briefly gained traction. It was only after the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law that the government reasserted control.

Recently, Hong Kong’s National Security Department arrested the father and elder brother of Anna Kwok, a wanted activist living abroad. Authorities allege that Kwok’s family attempted to alter the terms of her insurance policy in order to withdraw a balance of HK$90,000, in violation of Article 90(2)(b) and 90(3) of the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance and Section 159G of the Crimes Ordinance, which prohibit dealing with the assets of absconders. Police have reminded the public that such offenses carry a maximum penalty of seven years’ imprisonment, urging citizens not to test the law.

When the government issued wanted warrants for Kwok and others, critics dismissed the move as futile, arguing that fugitives living overseas were beyond the reach of Hong Kong law. Some mocked the police for “making something out of nothing.” Yet, these individuals continue to advocate for the subversion of state power and to call for foreign sanctions against Hong Kong officials -- actions that, authorities argue, violate the National Security Law. The pursuit of these cases, officials say, is a matter of legal principle.

With the passage of the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, the government has specifically criminalized the act of assisting absconders in handling their assets. The intent is clear: to freeze the financial resources of those who have fled and to prevent them from receiving further support from relatives. That Kwok would go to such lengths to recover her insurance payout suggests both a degree of desperation and the practical impact of the government’s enforcement efforts.

Some have argued that Kwok’s family members are innocent bystanders. Ultimately, their fate will be decided in court. What is clear, however, is that police are prepared to question the families of fugitives and to warn them against providing support. The willingness of some to risk prosecution may reflect a lingering belief, once common in Hong Kong, that the government would not enforce the law. This “non-enforcement theory,” paired with the idea that breaking the law can be justified by a higher cause, has encouraged some to act with impunity. But such arguments do not hold up in court. Just as a driver cannot escape a parking ticket by claiming to have parked illegally without consequence the day before, past laxity does not excuse present violations.

The opposition, meanwhile, continues to adapt its tactics. Overseas groups such as the European Hong Kong Diaspora Alliance have accused the government of “transnational repression” in its pursuit of fugitives’ families. Yet, as officials point out, the failure to enforce the law would itself undermine the rule of law. Enforcement, they argue, is not repression.

If the global debate is about transnational law enforcement, critics might do well to consider the United States, whose Foreign Corrupt Practices Act allows for prosecution of individuals for alleged corruption anywhere in the world, regardless of whether the conduct occurred on American soil. That, Hong Kong authorities argue, is true extraterritoriality.

As Hong Kong moves from a period of legal ambiguity toward renewed adherence to the rule of law, those accustomed to a more permissive environment will inevitably face discomfort. But, as history suggests, such growing pains may be the price of restoring public trust in the law.

Lo Wing-hung




Bastille Commentary

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

"Don't wear a hat too big for your head." It is a bit of gritty Cantonese wisdom, but let's be honest: It applies to everyone.

You get exactly that flavor when digging into the new "2025 National Security Strategy" just dropped by U.S. President Trump. The whole document screams a single message: The U.S. is pulling back. It is retreating its main battle lines to the Western Hemisphere and embracing a hard line of "semi-isolationism."

Trump is a businessman at heart. He handles state affairs like a merchant, prioritizing cold, hard realism. He happily trashes the utopian thinking of "white left" politicians like Biden, tossing global interventionism into the trash bin.

This isn't just Trump picking a new path for America. It is a necessity. He simply has no other card to play. But make no mistake, this shift triggers massive implications.

The Dollar Illusion: Fading American Muscle

First, look at the numbers. On paper, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of GDP in dollar terms. China’s total looks to be less than 70 percent of that. But that is just a currency conversion trick. Use a fairer metric: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and China blew past the U.S. way back in 2014. That isn't Beijing bragging; it’s the cold math used by the IMF and the CIA.

It isn't just about total output. China has leapfrogged the U.S. in critical innovation sectors. Look at the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy. China has locked down a near-monopoly global advantage. For the U.S., this kind of dominance used to be unimaginable.

Militarily, the U.S. holds the advantage in stock, but its capacity to replenish is alarming. "Stock advantage" means they have more toys right now. But "worrying incremental capacity" is the nice way of saying U.S. manufacturing has gutted out. In a war, if a ship sinks, replacing it takes forever compared to China. Sixth-generation fighters? Hypersonic missiles? China has them in service. The U.S.? They still only exist on PowerPoint slides.

Trump knows the score. That explains the strategic contraction. He is done playing global cop. You want protection? Open your wallet. That goes for Japan, South Korea, and the NATO club in Europe.

Trump's endgame is focusing energy on the American homeland. He wants to rebuild a brawny manufacturing sector and a robust economy. Why? Because that is the only way the U.S. survives a long-run brawl with China.

A New Warring States Chessboard

Second, view the global chessboard like China's Warring States period. Trump’s worldview splits the hemispheres: "Befriend the distant while attacking the near." He wants the Western Hemisphere under lock and key. As for the Asia-Pacific? He is effectively ceding it as China's sphere of influence to cut costs, while plotting to keep a foot in the door for later.

This strategy has morphed from the old Yalta talks into a G2 model—a pure two-power game. When trouble hits, Beijing and Washington meet to fix it. Europe gets kicked to the curb. Western Europe has slid from a vital anti-Soviet ally to a heavy American burden.

Third, seeing Trump retreat feels like a win. It means the end of the Democrats' "pivot to Asia." But don't get lulled into paralysis. The hostility hasn't vanished; the U.S. is just "not wearing a hat too big for its head." They are avoiding a direct fight now only to bulk up for the ultimate showdown later.

Plus, there is another election in three years. Can the Republicans hold on? If the Democrats storm back, they will tear up this semi-isolationist playbook. Whether this strategy sticks or not, the competitive intent remains. China has to work day and night to strengthen itself during this short window.

The Trap of Complacency: Don't Blink

China needs to dominate the economy—not just plugging holes in chip manufacturing, but becoming number one in every innovative industry. While the U.S. tries to decouple and fix its own broken supply chains, China must build the strongest new systems in the next five or ten industries.

Finally, look at the stakes for Hong Kong. On one hand, U.S. contraction eases the political pressure cooker. On the other, as the country builds a brand-new, autonomous international system, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. We have a three-year window. We better use it. Time waits for no one.

Lo Wing-hung

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