Don’t be fooled by the latest handshakes and joint statements. The much-hyped meeting between the Chinese and US presidents didn’t produce a sweeping peace deal. What we actually got is a patchwork “ceasefire” designed to buy both sides a breather. The public got more details this week—but what matters is what’s missing and what’s only on pause.
The White House dropped a fact-sheet last weekend laying out the talk’s outcomes. Some had not been disclosed before.
Buying Soybeans—Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s look at the numbers—China promised to buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans between November and December this year, and 25 million tons per year after that for three years. There’s also some resumed buying of sorghum and timber. With US soybeans running about 5,000 yuan a ton, this year’s tally comes to $9 billion, and future annual buys at $18.8 billion. Here’s the kicker: this “big” trade is, in context, small potatoes.
This move is a tactical trade-off for a 10% “fentanyl tariff” on all Chinese goods. Considering last year China’s export to the US totaled over $524.6 billion, a 10% levy means $52.6 billion in theoretical costs. If US importers take up 80% of that burden and Chinese exporters 20%, the real hit to Chinese exporters comes to $10.5 billion annually. So, even a near-$19 billion bump in US soy buys is just smart hedging. China has options; soybeans grow elsewhere too.
Rare Earths: Controls Loosened
The White House cheered China’s agreement not to enforce the rare earth export crackdowns it announced last month. New licenses will let rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite flow worldwide—effectively rolling back restrictions set in October 2022 and April this year.
China has kept a steady grip on rare earths ever since 1998, tightening controls with quotas and tariffs and hammering down hard in 2010. After 2014, Beijing took oversight to another level, locking down the entire supply chain. In 2022, the rules got even stricter—China began tracking rare earth exports end to end to block sanctioned US defense firms from slipping in through third parties.
For now, Washington’s got room to breathe—US firms get immediate supply security, maybe even loophole buys through third parties. But don’t get it twisted: China’s not giving away its leverage. Beijing is flooding the market with abundant, cheap light rare earths, all while keeping a tight grip on critical heavy rare earths, squeezing foreign competition. US rare earth miners, like MP Materials in California, only survived on government handouts.
Cheap light rare earths kill the economics for foreign integrated mines, forcing some out of the heavy rare earth game too. The global market faces a China-shaped tidal wave of cheap minerals—hardly a win for US “decoupling” ambitions.
Loosen export rules also grease the wheels for the US to ease the “Penetration Rule” sanctions and shipping surcharges on Chinese companies—a much-needed boost for China’s chip and shipbuilding industries.
Fentanyl: Facts, Blame, and Bargaining Chips
Here comes the perennial scapegoat—fentanyl. Washington wants China to cut off flows of fentanyl chemicals to North America and clamp down on related exports. Let’s be clear: the so-called “fentanyl tariff” is just a cover for broader tariffs on China, a fact that’s never been seriously contested.
Synthetic opioids like fentanyl, pethidine, and methadone have legitimate medical uses—China is one of the world’s leading producers. Just because another country abuses them doesn’t mean China’s pharmaceutical industry should swallow the blame or be forced to halt all exports on demand.
But politics is politics. Trump, eager for an agreement before his own domestic deadlines, offered to drop the “fentanyl tariff” by 10%. In South Korea, he upped the ante—if China proves effective at stopping the flows, the rest of the tariff goes too.
If the US removes those remaining tariffs, China is set to cut 10–15% reciprocal tariffs on US oil and gas, opening up more energy trade. But as long as Washington’s tariffs stay, China’s countermeasures hold.
Conclusion: a Short Pause
In conclusion: most of these “breakthroughs” only last a year. The antagonism hasn’t gone away. Both sides take what they can from the ceasefire, then regroup for the next round. China plans to use any lull to build up national strength—ready for the next round of friction. Trump wants a drama-free visit to China in April, but with US midterms looming in November, things will only get messier after that. Buckle up.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
In a series of blistering statements,The Hong Kong Office for Safeguarding National Security (OSNS) has drawn a red line in the sand for anyone trying to weaponize the city’s recent misfortunes. The message is crystal clear and ominous: If you use disaster to sow chaos in Hong Kong, they will hunt you down—no matter where on Earth you try to hide.
On December 3, an OSNS spokesperson doubled down. While the HKSAR government and local citizens were racing to save lives following the tragedy at Wang Fuk Court in Tai Po, a shadow game was already in play. The office accuses a "small group of external hostile forces" of looting a burning house. Under the guise of petitioning for the people, these actors are dusting off the old playbooks from the "extradition bill protests". They are activating agents, sabotaging relief efforts, and desperately trying to reignite the "Black Riots" memories. The verdict? Their actions are despicable enough to be universally condemned.
To drive the point home, the OSNS fired off three consecutive warning shots to overseas antagonists and anti-China disruptors:
First, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that their actions of creating chaos and disorder in Hong Kong are intolerable.
Second, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that their actions of adding fuel to the fire will inevitably bring disastrous consequences to themselves.
Third, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that the long arm of the law will catch up with them.
The OSNS is keeping receipts. Every word and every action used to disrupt Hong Kong goes on the permanent record, and culprits will be pursued for life. "Anyone who breaks the law," the office warns, there is no sanctuary. Whether you are hiding across the ocean or taking refuge in Taiwan, severe legal punishment is inevitable.
Why is the OSNS speaking up now? Read between the lines, and you see three strategic pivots.
First, this isn’t hypothetical; they believe the foreign interference is already happening. Second, the crosshairs are locked on external forces, with a pointed finger specifically at those hiding in Taiwan. And third, it’s a preemptive strike against anyone overseas dreaming of stirring up another color revolution. The warning is blunt: Distance is not a defense.
Opportunists, Grifters, and Organized Lies
Take a look at the chatter exploding across the internet, and the opposing voices generally fall into distinct camps.
First, you have the fair critics. There is plenty of commentary that, while critical of the SAR government, remains objective. These observers stick to the facts disclosed by official investigations rather than drifting into malicious fantasy. This is a natural, human reaction to a "disaster of the century." And the smart money says the SAR government will take this advice to heart and improve.
Then come the fame vampires. When disaster struck, the opportunists came out of the woodwork. Look at "internet celebrity" Kenny, arrested on December 3 after cursing the Tai Po fire victims online for having "heavy sins." It was a blatant, tasteless grab for traffic, and it landed him in handcuffs for sedition. Then there are the exiled influencers abroad, wantonly bashing the SAR government while coincidentally begging people to subscribe to their Patreon accounts. The hustle is obvious: They are monetizing misery to please their financiers.
Finally, there is the organized sedition. Beyond the grifters, we are seeing waves of calculated propaganda. These aren't just complaints; they are fabrications designed to smear the SAR government and attack the Central system. Rumor mills are churning out wild stories linking material suppliers to the families of Central leaders—plots that are total fiction. It’s as if they believe overthrowing the Central government provides immunity from fire physics. Do massive fires not happen in Western democracies? The logic is broken, but in the heat of a disaster, it’s a potent recipe for inciting public rage.
Sniper Attacks From The Shadows
The temperature on these seditious campaigns was rising fast until the Police National Security Department stepped in. Once they acted, the local noise quieted down—but the overseas attacks only intensified. It raises a suspicious question: Is there a coordinated machine working behind the scenes to sustain sniper attacks against the SAR government? The narrative is set in stone: Whatever the government does is wrong. Before a single investigator has arrived on the scene, the instigators are already screaming for heads to roll.
Here is the bottom line. The OSNS isn’t pointing fingers at external forces for sport; they are firing warning shots because they see the smoke rising. We need to be sharper than ever. Don't let external opposing forces play you for a fool, twisting a tragic fire into a tool for subverting the local government—or even the Central government itself.
Lo Wing-hung
