China Outfoxes US in Trade War Truce

The China-US summit in South Korea wrapped up with a deal to slash tariffs on both sides, but let's cut through the spin: China dictated the terms, exposing Washington's empty threats.

Trump jumped the gun with his announcement, claiming the US and China "agreed to almost anything." He touted the US slashing tariffs tied to the fentanyl crisis down to 10%, effective right away—dropping the rate on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, per his words. Trump also highlighted China's pledge for massive US soybean buys, adding, that he is deeply grateful for this.

Trump's flair for hype shines here—he spotlights wins for America while burying US giveaways, as his statement omits any nod to Beijing's hard-fought concessions extracted.

China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson laid it out plainly in their release: First, the US scraps the 10% "fentanyl tariffs" on Chinese goods, and China adjusts its matching countermeasures. Second, the US pauses its September 29 export control "50% transparency rule" on Chinese firms for a year; China reciprocates by suspending its October 9 rare earth export curbs for the same period. Third, the US halts port entry fees on Chinese ships for a year, with China mirroring the suspension on US measures. Fourth, both agree on fentanyl cooperation, boosting ag trade, and sorting TikTok issues.

Tariff Timeline Unravels

To grasp this deal's real weight, trace the trade war's brutal path—rooted in Trump's post-inauguration moves, documented in White House releases and China's retaliatory notices.

Trump, sworn in January 20, 2025, fired off the first tariff salvo on February 1: a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on all Chinese imports, blaming precursor exports. China hit back instantly with 10-15% duties on US coal, LNG, and crude oil, per Ministry of Commerce filings. By March 3, Trump doubled down, hiking the "fentanyl tariff" to 20%. China countered that day—15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, cotton; 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, fruits, veggies, dairy.

April 2 brought Trump's global "reciprocal tariffs," slapping another 34% on China for a 54% total. China mirrored it exactly on US goods. Escalation peaked at 125% "reciprocal" rates each—escalations tracked in bilateral trade bulletins.

Beijing's Iron Fist Prevails

China met every US jab with calculated force, never blinking. After clashes peaked, May talks in Switzerland yielded a Phase One deal on May 12. Both rolled "reciprocal tariffs" from 125% to 10%, syncing back to pre-April 2 levels, as outlined in the joint communiqué. China stands alone globally: even under US 10% hits, Beijing still levied 10% counters on America. Pre-April tariffs linger—US keeps 20% "fentanyl" plus 10% "reciprocal" for 30% total on Chinese goods; China holds 10-15% on US energy/ag plus 10% for 20-25%.

That Swiss pact screams mutual de-escalation, debunking Trump's narrative of one-sided Chinese bows—evidence from the agreement text shows parallel retreats.

US poked again in September with "transparency" sanctions on Chinese firms, targeting even 50%-owned subsidiaries—China fired back, then dropped the rare earth bomb in October, per export control notices, dragging Washington to the table.

Summit Seals US Retreat

This South Korea summit cements the US axing another 10% "fentanyl tariff," retreating to pre-March 3 stance—both suspend follow-on measures for a year. US drops its second-wave 10% hike; China lifts 15% on US wheat/corn/etc. and 10% on soybeans/pork/etc. US soybeans now face just 10% "reciprocal," easing costs so China restarts buys.

Announcements confirm the first 10% "fentanyl" stays, plus 10% "reciprocal"—20% total US tariffs on Chinese goods, matching 19% on most ASEAN nations. No more lure for Chinese factories to flee there. Japan and South Korea eat 15% US duties but pledged $550 billion and $350 billion investments, respectively—deals China dodged entirely, refusing humiliation.

Trump's 57%-to-47% drop? A sly mash-up of this term's 20% with last term's 27%, inflating his "victory"—he skips China's blanket 10% on US goods, leaving coal/LNG/crude at 20-25%. High duties plus easy energy swaps lock US out of China's market long-term.

Bottom line: US tariffs on China hit 20%, China's on US (non-energy) drop to 10%. At 20%—with similar hikes on others—pressure on Chinese exports eases big time, baked in for stability.

Experts Echo China's Edge

US brass will hype the deal and China's rare earth pause as a thrill ride. But The New York Times cooled that on October 28: Trump's frenzy just resets US-China trade to pre-tariff-war norms, mopping up his own mess.

Today, October 30, NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof drives it home: Trump didn't just flop the trade war—he torched the world's key bilateral tie. America started a loser; this truce hands China the reins, eroding US clout. The US forced China to take out rare earths as a weapon—now Beijing suspends fresh curbs for a year, restarts soybeans. Looks like pre-war reset? Nah, it's US surrender, arming China with rare earth leverage forever.

Kristof polled a room of international relations experts at a conference last weekend: Hands for US win? China win? Too soon? Overwhelmingly, China leads and triumphs—raw poll results underscore the shift.

The columnist wraps up by saying that America risks not just a trade loss but years of shredded global trust and sway—hailed worldwide as decline's dawn.

NYT nails America's slide; little left to say. China clinched this with raw power.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

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In a series of blistering statements,The Hong Kong Office for Safeguarding National Security (OSNS) has drawn a red line in the sand for anyone trying to weaponize the city’s recent misfortunes. The message is crystal clear and ominous: If you use disaster to sow chaos in Hong Kong, they will hunt you down—no matter where on Earth you try to hide.

On December 3, an OSNS spokesperson doubled down. While the HKSAR government and local citizens were racing to save lives following the tragedy at Wang Fuk Court in Tai Po, a shadow game was already in play. The office accuses a "small group of external hostile forces" of looting a burning house. Under the guise of petitioning for the people, these actors are dusting off the old playbooks from the "extradition bill protests". They are activating agents, sabotaging relief efforts, and desperately trying to reignite the "Black Riots" memories. The verdict? Their actions are despicable enough to be universally condemned.

To drive the point home, the OSNS fired off three consecutive warning shots to overseas antagonists and anti-China disruptors:

First, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that their actions of creating chaos and disorder in Hong Kong are intolerable.

Second, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that their actions of adding fuel to the fire will inevitably bring disastrous consequences to themselves.

Third, we solemnly warn hostile foreign forces and anti-China disrupters that the long arm of the law will catch up with them.

The OSNS is keeping receipts. Every word and every action used to disrupt Hong Kong goes on the permanent record, and culprits will be pursued for life. "Anyone who breaks the law," the office warns, there is no sanctuary. Whether you are hiding across the ocean or taking refuge in Taiwan, severe legal punishment is inevitable.

Why is the OSNS speaking up now? Read between the lines, and you see three strategic pivots.

First, this isn’t hypothetical; they believe the foreign interference is already happening. Second, the crosshairs are locked on external forces, with a pointed finger specifically at those hiding in Taiwan. And third, it’s a preemptive strike against anyone overseas dreaming of stirring up another color revolution. The warning is blunt: Distance is not a defense.

Opportunists, Grifters, and Organized Lies

Take a look at the chatter exploding across the internet, and the opposing voices generally fall into distinct camps.

First, you have the fair critics. There is plenty of commentary that, while critical of the SAR government, remains objective. These observers stick to the facts disclosed by official investigations rather than drifting into malicious fantasy. This is a natural, human reaction to a "disaster of the century." And the smart money says the SAR government will take this advice to heart and improve.

Then come the fame vampires. When disaster struck, the opportunists came out of the woodwork. Look at "internet celebrity" Kenny, arrested on December 3 after cursing the Tai Po fire victims online for having "heavy sins." It was a blatant, tasteless grab for traffic, and it landed him in handcuffs for sedition. Then there are the exiled influencers abroad, wantonly bashing the SAR government while coincidentally begging people to subscribe to their Patreon accounts. The hustle is obvious: They are monetizing misery to please their financiers.

Finally, there is the organized sedition. Beyond the grifters, we are seeing waves of calculated propaganda. These aren't just complaints; they are fabrications designed to smear the SAR government and attack the Central system. Rumor mills are churning out wild stories linking material suppliers to the families of Central leaders—plots that are total fiction. It’s as if they believe overthrowing the Central government provides immunity from fire physics. Do massive fires not happen in Western democracies? The logic is broken, but in the heat of a disaster, it’s a potent recipe for inciting public rage.

Sniper Attacks From The Shadows

The temperature on these seditious campaigns was rising fast until the Police National Security Department stepped in. Once they acted, the local noise quieted down—but the overseas attacks only intensified. It raises a suspicious question: Is there a coordinated machine working behind the scenes to sustain sniper attacks against the SAR government? The narrative is set in stone: Whatever the government does is wrong. Before a single investigator has arrived on the scene, the instigators are already screaming for heads to roll.

Here is the bottom line. The OSNS isn’t pointing fingers at external forces for sport; they are firing warning shots because they see the smoke rising. We need to be sharper than ever. Don't let external opposing forces play you for a fool, twisting a tragic fire into a tool for subverting the local government—or even the Central government itself.

Lo Wing-hung