Global investment banks lifts China growth forecasts as tariff tensions ease

A number of global investment banks are raising China's economic outlook following the recent tariff agreement between China and the U.S.

China and the United States on Monday released a joint statement after their meeting in Geneva, a significant step forward by the two countries that has been widely welcomed by the international community.

According to the joint statement, the U.S. will remove a total of 91-percent additional tariffs on Chinese products and China will accordingly cut 91-percent countermeasure additional tariffs against U.S. imports. The U.S. will suspend a 24-percent "reciprocal tariff" and China likewise will suspend a 24-percent countermeasure tariff.

JPMorgan on Monday revised its GDP forecast for 2025, estimating that China's full-year GDP growth rate would reach 4.8 percent, upward from the bank's previous forecast of 4.1 percent, as long as the tariffs remained at the current level.

The bank also raised the GDP growth rate (quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate) from Q2 to Q4 2025 to 3 percent.

Goldman Sachs bumped up its forecasts on Tuesday, expecting the Chinese economy to grow 4.6 percent this year, compared to its prior forecast of 4 percent.

On Monday, the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) said China's 2025 GDP growth could reach between 3.7 percent to 4 percent, up from a previous base case of 3.4 percent.

The Australia-headquartered bank of ANZ announced China's GDP growth is expected to exceed 4.2 percent in 2025, after the bank revised its forecast to 4.2 percent from 4.8 percent in April.

Meanwhile, France-headquartered Natixis sees the country's GDP growth at 4.5 percent this year, up from its previous 4.2-percent forecast.

Global investment banks lifts China growth forecasts as tariff tensions ease

China's movie industry is increasingly deriving its earnings from broader consumer economy.

Released during the 2025 summer season, the film "Nobody" became China's highest-grossing two-dimensional animated film -- and its success went beyond theaters.

Through licensing and brand partnerships, the movie has generated 2.5 billion yuan (about 358.3 million U.S. dollars) in retail sales to consumers, with more than 800 licensed products on the market.

Ranging from plush toys to food and home goods, the movie-related merchandise can be purchased from over 3,000 online and offline outlets.

Meanwhile, souvenir stores are crowded at Shanghai Disneyland's Zootopia themed land, with hats, plush toys, and collectibles seeing steady demand from visitors.

"China's film industry is no longer defined by box office revenue alone. It has become a new growth engine that links and energizes multiple cultural sectors. At the heart of every successful film is strong storytelling. High-quality productions create cultural value, which in turn enhances the commercial value of intellectual property and opens up new consumption opportunities. I believe China's film industry delivered an outstanding performance in the past year," said Chen Xiaoda, vice dean of Shanghai Vancouver Film School.

Film IP fuels expansion of consumer market