How the S&P 500 recovered all of its losses for the year

NEW YORK (AP) — Conditions appeared dire for the stock market in early April. President Donald Trump followed through on a campaign promise and announced sweeping tariffs against most U.S. trading partners. The S&P 500 dropped 12% in four days.

Economists warned of a recession. Consumer confidence, already waning, weakened further. Corporate executives struggled to give investors a clear picture of their financial prospects.

This week, though, the S&P 500 rallied 5.3% and turned positive for 2025. Just a few weeks ago, the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts was down about 15% for the year.

Analysts caution that the tariff drama is hardly over, and stocks could fall again. But the run for U.S. stocks back upward has been just as wild and unexpected as its fall. Here’s a look at what happened:

Trump appeared in the Rose Garden on April 2 and announced steeper-than-expected tariffs on almost all U.S. trade partners. He especially targeted China, eventually raising the duties on imports from China to 145%. Beijing retaliated by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. Investors fled the U.S. stock market.

On April 9, Trump announced on social media a “90-day PAUSE” for most of the tariffs he’d announced a week earlier, except those against China. The S&P 500 soared 9.5% for one of its best days ever.

Trump largely ignored the damage to the stock market, surprising for a president who boasted repeatedly during his first term about how the Dow was doing. But he couldn’t ignore the signs of trouble in the bond and foreign exchange markets.

Tumbling prices for U.S. government bonds raised worries that the U.S. Treasury market was losing its status as the world’s safest place to keep cash. The value of the U.S. dollar also sank in another signal of diminishing faith in the United States as a safe haven for investors.

Unlike stocks, Treasurys and the dollar haven’t fully bounced back. Some of that may be because of shifting expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates, but it’s also still a signal that investors globally still have some trepidation about the United States.

While consumer sentiment has weakened – it has fallen for five straight months by one measure -- what investors call “hard data,” such as employment numbers, indicate the economy is still doing OK. Recent data show employers added 177,000 jobs in April and that inflation has cooled.

Through all the market’s tumult, U.S. companies have continued to deliver profit reports for the start of the year that have topped analysts’ expectations. Stock prices tend to follow profits over the long term, and that’s given the market a notable boost.

Three out of every four companies in the S&P 500 have beaten analysts’ expectations for profits in recent weeks, including such market heavyweights as Microsoft and Meta Platforms. They’re on track to deliver growth of nearly 13.6% from a year earlier, according to FactSet.

Wall Street’s outlook brightened this month as the U.S. signaled a willingness to negotiate on trade. Last week, the administration struck a deal with the United Kingdom. Then came the biggest news: The U.S. and China said Monday that they were temporarily rolling back most of the tariffs they’d imposed on one another The S&P 500 rose to its best day since the first tariff pause.

Even as companies have delivered fatter profits than expected, many have also warned they’re unsure about what lies ahead. CEOs have been either lowering or withdrawing their financial forecasts for the year given all the uncertainty around how Trump’s tariffs will end up.

Market stalwarts such as Apple and Alphabet are still down double-digits for the year and the Nasdaq composite, with a bigger roster of technology companies, is still down 0.5%.

Analysts are quick to remind investors that most tariffs have been paused, not eliminated, and others are still in place. Trump retained a baseline 10% tariff against other counties. U.S. tariffs against China are still at 30%.

“I would advise investors to remain cautious in the near term and to be prepared for unexpected news from the trade front,” said Louis Wong, director for Phillip Securities Group in Hong Kong, earlier this week.

Trader Jonathan Corpina works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, May 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Specialist Michael Pistillo works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, May 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia (AP) — Slovenia’s parliament on Friday appointed right-wing populist politician Janez Jansa as the new prime minister, in a shift for the small European Union country that was previously run by a liberal government.

Lawmakers backed Jansa in a 51-36 vote in the 90-member assembly. The new prime minister will need to come back to Parliament within the next 15 days for another vote to confirm his future Cabinet.

Jansa's appointment concludes a postelection stalemate in Slovenia after a parliamentary ballot two months ago ended practically in a tie. Former liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement won by a thin margin but he was unable to muster a parliamentary majority.

Jansa and his populist Slovenian Democratic Party signed a coalition agreement this week with several right-wing groups. The new government also has the backing of a nonestablishment Truth party that first emerged as an anti-vaccination movement during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new term in office will be the fourth for the veteran Slovenian politician. Jansa, 67, is an admirer of U.S. President Donald Trump and was a close ally of former populist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who was defeated in a landslide election last month.

Jansa in a speech listed the economy, fight against corruption and red tape, and decentralization as key goals of the future government. He has promised to lower taxes for the rich and support private education and healthcare.

Critical of the previous government's alleged “inefficiency," Jansa said the new government will turn Slovenia into “a country of opportunity, prosperity and justice, where each responsible citizen will feel safe and accepted."

Like Orban, Jansa was staunchly anti-immigrant during the huge migration wave to Europe in 2015. Also like Orban, Jansa has faced accusations of clamping down on democratic institutions and press freedoms during a previous term in 2020-2022. This led to protests at the time, and scrutiny from the European Union.

Golob in his speech described Jansa as “the greatest threat to Slovenia’s sovereignty and democracy."

Alleging that Jansa had threatened to arrest him, Golob said Jansa's "idea of democracy is that anyone who dares speak a word against you deserves only the worst.”

Jansa, a supporter of Israel, also has been a stern critic of the Golob government's 2024 recognition of a Palestinian state.

The vote on March 22 was marred by allegations of foreign influence and corruption. The around 2 million people in the Alpine nation are deeply divided between liberals and conservatives.

Janez Jansa, center, addresses the Slovenian Parliament during a session in Ljubljana, Slovenia, Friday, May 22, 2026, before appointing him as prime minister, ending a political deadlock after tight elections in March. (AP Photo/Igor Kupljenik)

Janez Jansa arrives for a session of the Slovenian Parliament in Ljubljana, Slovenia, Friday, May 22, 2026, before appointing him as prime minister, ending a political deadlock after tight elections in March. (AP Photo/Igor Kupljenik)

Janez Jansa addresses the Slovenian Parliament during a session in Ljubljana, Slovenia, Friday, May 22, 2026, before appointing him as prime minister, ending a political deadlock after tight elections in March. (AP Photo/Igor Kupljenik)