India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently kicked off a nationwide 10-day patriotic victory campaign from May 13 to 23, aiming to trumpet the so-called successes of “Operation Sindoor” - India’s latest military strikes against Pakistan. But let’s take a closer look behind the headlines and hype.
“Operation Sindoor” was launched under the banner of counterterrorism, with India deploying its prized French-made Rafale fighter jets, hoping to showcase military might and curry favor with the United States. But as experts like Dr. Guo Zhengliang from Yale and Professor Shen Yi of Fudan University have pointed out, this costly campaign was never just about Pakistan. It was India’s bid to prove loyalty to the US, hoping to ease tough tariff barriers and gain economic concessions.
According to Dr Guo, here’s the twist: With the US unwilling to risk direct conflict with China, India volunteered to confront Pakistan，a nation heavily armed with Chinese-made weaponry. India’s strategy hinged on deploying its top-tier Rafale jets (its "ace in the hole") to swiftly neutralize Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied fighters, which were perceived as downgraded "export variants" compared to China’s domestically deployed advanced models. By dominating these engagements, India aimed to escalate regional tensions, effectively cornering China into a geopolitical pincer: simultaneously confronting US-led trade wars on the economic front and Indian military pressure along the Himalayan frontier.
Reality, however, had other plans. Pakistan’s Chinese J-10C fighter jets, upgraded and innovatively enhanced, proved their mettle by shooting down multiple Indian Rafales in one of the largest air battles since World War II.
Far from the expected Indian air superiority, the Rafales suffered humiliating defeats. The Indian Air Force lost six aircraft in the clash, while Pakistan reported zero losses. Pakistan’s use of Chinese technology, including advanced PL-15 missiles and electronic warfare systems, effectively neutralized India’s numerical and technological advantage.
India’s navy and army also found themselves immobilized, forced to accept ceasefire talks initiated by Pakistan and surprisingly mediated by Trump, who cynically reminded India of its high tariff barriers: “India is the highest — one of the highest tariff nations in the world. It’s very hard to sell into India”. This left India scrambling to negotiate trade talks with the US, losing face and bargaining power.
Professor Shen Yi analyzes that to maintain national image, Prime Minister Modi is pushing for a nationwide 10-day celebration. Meanwhile, France suffered heavy losses due to the Rafale’s poor performance, and the West is caught in confusion over whether there is a technological gap with China. If fate is so, the West will inevitably lose “air dominance,” marking the most critical reversal since 1840.
This is no surprise to those who have followed China’s warnings. In 2019, when Huawei faced US sanctions under Trump, Huawei’s founder Ren Zhengfei told France’s Le Point magazine that Europe was underestimating the significance of 5G technology. He explained that Europe’s earlier industrial development was largely due to its historical advantages in railways and maritime capabilities, while China’s transportation relied on slower horse-drawn carts, which delayed its industrial development. Ren emphasized that the increase in information transmission speed brought by 5G, being at least ten times faster than 4G, would drive immeasurable economic growth and promote rapid economic and cultural development. Today, Pakistan’s innovative technology that downed the Rafale is precisely in communications and data applications.
History once revolved around “strong ships and powerful cannons.” China endured under that old world order for centuries. Before 2025, the West monopolized air superiority. But now, with China’s rise and the East’s technological leap, do we still talk about “strong ships, powerful cannons, and Rafale jets” as symbols of dominance?
The cycle of history is clear: the East is rising, the West is declining, and this new normal is reshaping global power dynamics.
Deep Blue
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
Warren Buffett, the legendary investor whose career spans more than eight decades, issued a stark warning at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting, declaring that the US dollar is “going to hell.” The remark, delivered with characteristic candor, has reverberated across financial circles and prompted widespread speculation about the future trajectory of both the dollar and the broader American economy. Some observers liken Buffett’s pronouncement to a “Last Dance” * moment -- a final, dramatic flourish from one of the market’s most influential voices.
Buffett’s critique was unsparing. He took direct aim at Washington’s fiscal management, highlighting what he sees as reckless spending and an ever-expanding national debt that threatens the dollar’s long-term stability. “I think the problem of how you control revenue and expenses in the government is one that is never fully solved. We're operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time,” Buffett told shareholders. He further cautioned, “It’s a big mistake, in my view, when you have seven and a half billion people that don’t like you very well, and you got 300 million that are crowing in some way about how well they’ve done. I don’t think it’s right, and I don’t think it’s wise.” The subtext was unmistakable: Buffett’s frustration with the direction of US economic policy, particularly under the Trump administration, runs deep.
Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate Buffett leads, now commands a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion and holds $300 billion in liquid assets. As investors contemplate the company’s future in a post-Buffett era, questions abound: Will Berkshire shift its focus toward assets denominated in yen or euros? Despite his global perspective, Buffett ultimately reaffirmed his faith in the United States, asserting, “I do think that the more prosperous the rest of the world becomes-it won't be at our expense-the more prosperous we'll become and the safer we'll feel and your children will feel someday.” Fudan University Professor Shen Yi has noted that while Buffett demonstrates a clear-eyed understanding of America’s economic challenges, he is careful not to sound overly pessimistic, choosing instead to voice his concerns without resorting to alarmism.
Buffett’s warnings are not new. In the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, he sounded the alarm to both Wall Street and policymakers in Washington, though his cautions went largely unheeded. In the aftermath, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, speaking in a US interview, identified the sustainability of American hegemony -- not merely the perils of monetary expansion -- as the central issue. Lee argued that the United States cannot remain the world’s preeminent power if it fails to maintain its position in the Pacific. To preserve that role, he said, America must avoid worsening deficits and a weakening dollar. Should these trends persist, Lee warned, global financiers and hedge funds may lose confidence and shift their assets elsewhere, precipitating a crisis. In his view, fiscal discipline and a stable dollar are prerequisites for continued US leadership on the world stage.
Even as he acknowledged America’s vulnerabilities, Lee Kuan Yew at that time remained fundamentally optimistic about its prospects and was reluctant to overstate China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. He observed that while China is poised for decades of robust growth and aspires to surpass the United States, it will likely take at least a century to match America’s standards of living and technological sophistication. Lee further noted that contemporary Chinese leaders recognize the gap, particularly in technology and military capabilities, between their nation and the West.
The scale of America’s fiscal challenge is daunting. In 2009, US national debt stood at $12.4 trillion. According to recent figures from Xinhua, that figure has now soared to $36.2 trillion, with approximately $9.2 trillion set to mature in 2025 -- representing more than a quarter of the total.
Unless a radical solution such as issuing 100-year bonds that cannot be resold, pay no interest, and are purchased proportionally by over 190 countries, American hegemony could face a reckoning as soon as 2025. Should that scenario materialize, the dollar’s descent into “hell” may become more than just a metaphor.
*”The Last Dance” is currently one of the most popular Hong Kong-made movies featuring a family engaged in the funeral service.
