Trump's recent face-off with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office wasn't your typical diplomatic pow-wow. Described by South African media as a "carefully choreographed ambush," Trump dimmed the lights and rolled out a video supposedly showing the "persecution" of white farmers in South Africa – echoing his long-standing, and largely debunked, claims of a "white genocide." Ramaphosa, cool as a cucumber, shot down Trump's claims, making it clear that most victims of violent crime in South Africa are Black, not white, and that government policy is against any call to violence. The whole thing was a calculated show of strength – Trump trying to intimidate and make an example of other "Global South" countries, warning them against getting too close to China.
US Fiscal Headaches: Debt, Downgrades, and Tax Cut Troubles
Behind this bit of theatre lies a bigger worry: America's fading ability to take on its main rival, China, head-on. The US is wrestling with some serious fiscal challenges. Moody's recently gave America's credit rating a thumbs-down, pointing to the ballooning $36 trillion national debt and constant deficits. Proposals from Republican politicians to extend or even increase Trump-era tax cuts would make the deficit even worse, with predictions that US debt could skyrocket to $58 trillion within the next ten years. Financial markets are already getting twitchy – US Treasuries have been sold off and the dollar's weakening, signalling that investors are feeling uneasy and there's less room to manoeuvre.
China's Rising Tide: Investment Floods into Europe
While the US is struggling, China's economic engine is firing on all cylinders. According to a joint report by US and German think tanks, Chinese direct investment in the EU and UK jumped 47% in 2024, hitting €10. This suggests that global capital might increasingly favour China and Europe over American assets, particularly as the US and China decouple at an ever increasing rate.
US Military Might Under the Microscope
America's real ace in the hole isn't just economic confidence – it's military muscle. But even here, things are looking a bit strained. The US military budget, while still massive at $890 billion for FY2025, is spread thin across six branches, with each fighting for a bigger slice of the pie. Top US generals are openly warning that China is undeniably outstripping the US in warship production, with China's new destroyers like the 055 and the 052D are leaving current US models in the dust in terms of both speed and firepower. The top brass at the Pentagon are calling for urgent innovation and investment, but the fiscal squeeze is threatening to undermine these efforts.
Trump's "Rural Encirclement" Game Plan
Trump's White House "ambush" of Ramaphosa was more than just a bit of showmanship – it was a sign of a new US game plan. Unable to directly challenge China, the US is now trying to put the squeeze on key countries in the "Global South," starting with resource-rich South Africa, hoping to isolate China and encircle it geopolitically. By targeting South Africa, Trump's aiming to send a message to other countries: don't even think about ignoring US pressure.
But can Trump pull this off before time runs out? With America's economic and military dominance facing unprecedented pressure, and China's global influence on the rise, the jury's still out.
Deep Blue
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Wang Yi just put the world on notice. "The international situation is getting more turbulent and intertwined," he said. "Unilateral bullying is intensifying. The sudden change in Venezuela has drawn high level of attention from the international community."
He then added: "We never believe that any country can play the role of world policeman, nor do we agree that any country can claim itself to be an international judge."
This isn't diplomatic chitchat. Wang Yi added that "the sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected under international law." It's a warning shot fired directly at Trump's so-called "New Monroe Doctrine"—and it signals China will push back hard against neo-colonialism. One story from China's past shows exactly what that means.
The Incheon Gamble
In mid-September 1950, MacArthur pulled off the audacious Incheon landing—later hailed as "the most successful gamble" in military history. He bet everything on one card: that North Korean forces would be lax defending a port with terrible geography. The bet paid off. US forces achieved total surprise, cut enemy supply lines, and reversed the early disasters of the Korean War.
The Korean Peninsula was strategically vital to both China and the Soviet Union. They planned to back North Korea. At 1:00 a.m. on October 3, Zhou Enlai urgently summoned K. M. Panikkar, India's ambassador to China. His message was blunt: "If US forces cross the 38th parallel, we cannot stand by—we will have to step in."
The CCP's official Party history records this moment and emphasizes one critical word: "管" (to intervene). The Chinese term posed a translation challenge. If the wording was too soft, the Americans might miss China's intent. So Premier Zhou asked his foreign affairs secretary, Pu Shouchang, to choose carefully. Pu used "intervene"—making China's intention crystal clear. China would step in and interfere. The message reached Washington quickly through India. Yet "the US side chose to ignore it, and US forces brazenly crossed the 38th parallel on October 7."
Crossing the Yalu
American troops didn't just cross the 38th parallel—they surged in force toward the Yalu River and raced along the China-North Korea and North Korea-Soviet borders to the Tumen River. What happened next? On October 19, 1950, the Chinese People's Volunteers crossed the Yalu River. After five successive campaigns, they drove UN forces back from the Yalu area to near the 38th parallel.
On July 27, 1953, China, North Korea, and the UN Command signed the Korean Armistice Agreement. Many believe Mao Zedong's decision to send troops delivered China a stunning victory—a weaker power defeating a stronger one. People now say China "won so hard it felt unreal."
MacArthur—that "godlike general"—couldn't let it go. After his success at Incheon, the more he thought about it, the more he wanted to expand his gains. He proposed a radical escalation to Washington: first, blockade China's coast; second, use naval and air power for unlimited bombing to completely destroy China's industrial production and infrastructure; third, bring in Nationalist (KMT) forces to "retake the mainland" and tie China down. Then fourth, MacArthur went even further with a wild proposal—drop 20 to 30 atomic bombs on China and create a radioactive "death zone" along the Yalu River between China and North Korea.
Trump's MacArthur Moment
Today's Trump thinks arresting Venezuela's president and his wife means he can bulldoze the whole world. One moment he talks about "taking over" Venezuela. The next he claims he can make personnel arrangements for that country, sending Marco Rubio to serve as a "governor." Meanwhile, US oil giants are poised to "swallow up" Venezuela's petroleum assets. Trump's ambition follows the same logic as MacArthur's back then.
MacArthur's recklessness enraged America's allies. They feared World War III. More importantly, the Soviet Union—which also possessed atomic weapons—was deeply dissatisfied with the US and warned that "bombs can be answered with bombs." President Truman faced an impossible choice: keep his war hero or keep the peace. He chose peace. On April 11, 1951, Truman fired MacArthur—ending the career of America's most celebrated general. MacArthur became one of the century's biggest cautionary tales.
The lesson is simple, direct, and brutal. Trump thinks everyone is scared of him and that he can keep throwing out ever more outrageous "deals" at will. That will invite disaster—because it crosses the tolerance threshold of the great-power balance. The major powers will have to "intervene."
How will they intervene? Great powers have many tools in their toolbox. Think of Schrödinger's cat—you open the box yourself and you'll find out the outcome. This isn't a joke. Do you dare try?
