Stalin’s quip – “How many divisions does the Pope have?” – resonates. The Vatican, sans army, commands the spiritual loyalty of a sixth of humanity. The Catholic Church endures; Stalin’s USSR is history.
This echoes Joseph Nye, the late dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, the ‘soft power’ guru, who passed on May 6th aged 88. In his final commentary published on the Project Syndicate website, Nye lamented America’s dwindling soft power against China’s ascent.
Hard power, Nye argued, is coercion – sticks, carrots, honey. Sticks and carrots? Hard power. Honey? Soft power, rooted in culture, values, and foreign policy. Hard power’s the short-term victor, but soft power wins the long game.
Attraction saves on sticks and carrots. Trusted allies follow your lead; seen as a bully, they minimize ties. Stalin’s Pope jab? A hard power eulogy.
Nye saw Trump’s soft power abandonment coming. Bullying allies like Denmark or Canada erodes trust. Threatening Panama revives Latin American imperial fears. Gutting USAID (Kennedy’s brainchild 1961) tarnishes US benevolence. Gagging Voice of America, gifts for autocrats. Tariffs on friends paint America as unreliable. Suppressing free speech stains its image. The list goes on.
Nye opined that Russia had tanked its soft power after the Ukraine invasion, while China did not hesitate to fill the void created by Trump. Beijing reckons the East is eclipsing the West. If Trump thinks he can undercut allies, cling to imperial dreams, dismantle USAID, silence Voice of America, flout laws, ditch the UN, and still out-compete China, he is delusional. Repairing all the damage he has done is not impossible, but will be at a steep price.
Nye, a Harvard Kennedy School veteran, knew the power of Harvard in peddling US “universal values.” Trump’s moves? An anathema.
Harvard Hammered
Nye didn't live to see Trump's ban on international students. Harvard's battling the Feds. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (the “Barbie Doll”) called Harvard unsafe, axing its exchange program status. US universities face “anti-Semitism” slurs for allowing free speech on Israeli actions. Columbia buckled, even replacing disliked department heads. Harvard resisted, suing the government. Trump’s retaliation? Revoking Harvard’s right to admit international students.
Destroying Harvard wrecks America's values export. The Chinese are cooling on Hollywood, iPhones, and Teslas. They once admired the Ivy League but never expected America to nuke its own Great Wall.
Habeas Corpus Gutted
Trump’s human rights abuses are shocking. Illegals get shipped to Salvadoran supermax prisons. At a May 20th hearing, Senator Maggie Hassan grilled Secretary Noem on habeas corpus. Noem claimed it's a presidential power to expel people and suspend their rights. Hassan corrected her: Habeas corpus demands the government justify detention—a basic right of individuals that separating free nations from police states like North Korea.
Noem’s habeas corpus take is terrifying – ignorance or malice? Both are grim.
The US Constitution (Article I, Section 9, Clause 2) allows suspending habeas corpus only during rebellion or invasion. Trump’s distortion trashes America’s human rights creed.
Trump loves hard power, plain and simple. His bullying obliterates US soft power. He's Nye's worst nightmare.
Long term? Trump 2.0 is a game-changer for China’s soft power surge.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
"Don't wear a hat too big for your head." It is a bit of gritty Cantonese wisdom, but let's be honest: It applies to everyone.
You get exactly that flavor when digging into the new "2025 National Security Strategy" just dropped by U.S. President Trump. The whole document screams a single message: The U.S. is pulling back. It is retreating its main battle lines to the Western Hemisphere and embracing a hard line of "semi-isolationism."
Trump is a businessman at heart. He handles state affairs like a merchant, prioritizing cold, hard realism. He happily trashes the utopian thinking of "white left" politicians like Biden, tossing global interventionism into the trash bin.
This isn't just Trump picking a new path for America. It is a necessity. He simply has no other card to play. But make no mistake, this shift triggers massive implications.
The Dollar Illusion: Fading American Muscle
First, look at the numbers. On paper, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of GDP in dollar terms. China’s total looks to be less than 70 percent of that. But that is just a currency conversion trick. Use a fairer metric: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and China blew past the U.S. way back in 2014. That isn't Beijing bragging; it’s the cold math used by the IMF and the CIA.
It isn't just about total output. China has leapfrogged the U.S. in critical innovation sectors. Look at the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy. China has locked down a near-monopoly global advantage. For the U.S., this kind of dominance used to be unimaginable.
Militarily, the U.S. holds the advantage in stock, but its capacity to replenish is alarming. "Stock advantage" means they have more toys right now. But "worrying incremental capacity" is the nice way of saying U.S. manufacturing has gutted out. In a war, if a ship sinks, replacing it takes forever compared to China. Sixth-generation fighters? Hypersonic missiles? China has them in service. The U.S.? They still only exist on PowerPoint slides.
Trump knows the score. That explains the strategic contraction. He is done playing global cop. You want protection? Open your wallet. That goes for Japan, South Korea, and the NATO club in Europe.
Trump's endgame is focusing energy on the American homeland. He wants to rebuild a brawny manufacturing sector and a robust economy. Why? Because that is the only way the U.S. survives a long-run brawl with China.
A New Warring States Chessboard
Second, view the global chessboard like China's Warring States period. Trump’s worldview splits the hemispheres: "Befriend the distant while attacking the near." He wants the Western Hemisphere under lock and key. As for the Asia-Pacific? He is effectively ceding it as China's sphere of influence to cut costs, while plotting to keep a foot in the door for later.
This strategy has morphed from the old Yalta talks into a G2 model—a pure two-power game. When trouble hits, Beijing and Washington meet to fix it. Europe gets kicked to the curb. Western Europe has slid from a vital anti-Soviet ally to a heavy American burden.
Third, seeing Trump retreat feels like a win. It means the end of the Democrats' "pivot to Asia." But don't get lulled into paralysis. The hostility hasn't vanished; the U.S. is just "not wearing a hat too big for its head." They are avoiding a direct fight now only to bulk up for the ultimate showdown later.
Plus, there is another election in three years. Can the Republicans hold on? If the Democrats storm back, they will tear up this semi-isolationist playbook. Whether this strategy sticks or not, the competitive intent remains. China has to work day and night to strengthen itself during this short window.
The Trap of Complacency: Don't Blink
China needs to dominate the economy—not just plugging holes in chip manufacturing, but becoming number one in every innovative industry. While the U.S. tries to decouple and fix its own broken supply chains, China must build the strongest new systems in the next five or ten industries.
Finally, look at the stakes for Hong Kong. On one hand, U.S. contraction eases the political pressure cooker. On the other, as the country builds a brand-new, autonomous international system, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. We have a three-year window. We better use it. Time waits for no one.
Lo Wing-hung
