Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn

WASHINGTON (AP) — Get ready for several years of even more record-breaking heat that pushes Earth to more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world's top weather agencies forecast.

There's an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it's even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.

“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn't part of the calculations but said they made sense. “So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.”

With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change “we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),” emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.

And for the first time there’s a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world's annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.

There's an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.

The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.

Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and science scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking.”

“It's not something anyone wants to see, but that's what the science is telling us,” Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.

Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement’s threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.

“With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,” said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.

Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.

What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn't go back down much, if at all.

“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

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FILE - A vendor sleeps near a fan on a hot afternoon at his shop at Market 4 in Asuncion, Paraguay, Jan. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Jorge Saenz, File)

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CRANS-MONTANA, Switzerland (AP) — In the aftermath of a fire inside a Swiss Alpine bar that killed 40 people celebrating the new year, survivors, friends and family members, the region’s top authorities and even Pope Leo have spoken to the public in remarks in French, Italian, German and English, reflecting the tradition of Swiss multilingualism.

Another 119 people were injured in the blaze early Thursday as it ripped through the busy Le Constellation bar at the ski resort of Crans-Montana, authorities said. It was one of the deadliest tragedies in Switzerland’s history.

Investigators said Friday that they believe sparkling candles atop Champagne bottles ignited the fatal fire when they came too close to the ceiling of the crowded bar.

Here’s a look at what people said in the wake of the disaster:

— “I’m looking everywhere. The body of my son is somewhere,” Laetitia Brodard told reporters Friday in Crans-Montana as she searched for her son, 16-year-old Arthur. “I want to know, where is my child, and be by his side. Wherever that may be, be it in the intensive care unit or the morgue.”

— “We were bringing people out, people were collapsing. We were doing everything we could to save them, we helped as many as we could. We saw people screaming, running,” Marc-Antoine Chavanon, 14, told The Associated Press in Crans-Montana on Friday, recounting how he rushed to the bar to help the injured. “There was one of our friends: She was struggling to get out, she was all burned. You can’t imagine the pain I saw.”

— “It was hard to live through for everyone. Also probably because everyone was asking themselves, ‘Was my child, my cousin, someone from the region at this party?’” Eric Bonvin, general director of the regional hospital in Sion that took in dozens of injured people, told AP on Friday. “This place was very well known as somewhere to celebrate the new year,” Bonvin said. “Also, seeing young people arrive — that’s always traumatic.”

— “I have seen horror, and I don’t know what else would be worse than this,” Gianni Campolo, a Swiss 19-year-old who was in Crans-Montana on vacation and rushed to the bar to help first responders, told France's TF1 television.

—“You will understand that the priority today is truly placed on identification, in order to allow the families to begin their mourning,” Beatrice Pilloud, the Valais region's attorney general, told reporters Friday during a news conference in Sion.

Pope Leo said in a telegram Friday to the bishop of Sion that he " wishes to express his compassion and concern to the relatives of the victims. He prays that the Lord will welcome the deceased into His abode of peace and light, and will sustain the courage of those who suffer in their hearts or in their bodies.”

— “We have numerous accounts of heroic actions, one could say of very strong solidarity in the moment,” Cantonal head of government Mathias Reynard told RTS radio Friday. "In the first minutes it was citizens — and in large part young people — who saved lives with their courage.”

— “Switzerland is a strong country not because it is sheltered from drama, but because it knows how to face them with courage and a spirit of mutual help," Swiss President Guy Parmelin, speaking on his first day in the position that changes hands annually, told reporters Thursday.

People bring flowers near the sealed off Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana, Swiss Alps, Switzerland, Friday, Jan. 2, 2026, where a devastating fire left dead and injured during the New Year's celebrations. (AP Photo/ Antonio Calanni)

A woman holding a stuffed animal, whose daughter is missing, gather with others near the sealed-off Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, Friday, Jan. 2, 2026, where a devastating fire left dead and injured during the New Year's celebrations. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

People light candles near the sealed off Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana, Swiss Alps, Switzerland, Friday, Jan. 2, 2026, where a devastating fire left dead and injured during the New Year's celebrations. (AP Photo/ Antonio Calanni)