When a nation edges toward decline, it often makes critical missteps along the way. America’s growing hostility toward international students is precisely such a misstep—one with potentially grave consequences.
Trump’s Assault on International Students
Trump’s campaign against Harvard University shows no signs of letting up. Earlier, he demanded that Harvard halt admissions of international students, prompting the university to secure a temporary restraining order from a local court. Undeterred, Trump then threatened to divert $3 billion in federal funding originally allocated to Harvard to vocational schools, accusing Harvard of rampant anti-Semitism. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt went further, claiming America needs more electricians and plumbers—not graduates from Harvard’s so-called “LGBTQ programs.”
But the crackdown doesn’t stop there. The Trump administration is tightening visa requirements for international students across the board, mandating social media scrutiny to detect any anti-Semitic views. At the same time, US embassies and consulates have been ordered to suspend all visa interviews for students and exchange scholars.
Lesson from Chinese history: Li Si’s Timeless Warning
This aggressive stance against Harvard and international students calls to mind Li Si’s famous “Admonition to Expel Guests” from China’s Warring States period. Li Si, originally from Chu, became a guest minister in Qin. Near the end of the Warring States era, Emperor Ying Zheng of Qin uncovered a plot mapped by the Han state — the “Tiring Qin Plan”—which involved sending Han hydraulic engineer Zheng Guo to Qin to propose building the Guanzhong Canal, a project that drained Qin’s resources. Amid objections and voices from royal relatives and ministers, Emperor Zheng issued an order to expel all guest ministers from the six other states.
Li Si was among those targeted, but he penned the “Admonition to Expel Guests,” urging the Emperor to embrace talent regardless of origin, arguing that a ruler’s magnanimity was essential for national strength. Moved by the memorial, Emperor Zheng revoked the expulsion order, recalled Li Si, and restored his position. Later, Li Si became a key strategist, formulating the plan to “destroy the feudal lords, establish the imperial enterprise, and unify the world,” ultimately founding China’s first centralized empire.
The Power of Embracing Global Talent
This episode underscores a timeless truth: attracting talent from across the world is often the foundation of a strong nation. Over the past century, America’s rise was fueled by its openness to international students and immigrants. During World War II, as Nazi Germany persecuted Jews, prominent scientists like Einstein fled to the US, directly contributing to major technological breakthroughs—including the atomic bomb.
Einstein’s close friend, physicist Leo Szilard, had noticed in early 1939 a groundbreaking discovery published in the journal Nature by German scientists Otto Hahn and others, revealing uranium’s nuclear fission. Szilard drafted a letter, signed by Einstein, to President Roosevelt, warning that splitting uranium atoms could release enormous energy, potentially used to create a new kind of bomb.
Einstein described the bomb’s devastating potential: if a ship carrying uranium bombs detonated in a harbor, it could obliterate the entire port and surrounding area. Though he doubted the bomb’s weight would allow aerial delivery at the time, he warned that Germany’s control over Czech uranium mines and halted uranium sales suggested they were developing such weapons. Roosevelt heeded Einstein’s warning, and six years later, the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending World War II.
This direct cause-and-effect story illustrates the stakes: had Germany not persecuted its Jewish scientists, had America not welcomed talents like Einstein and Szilard, or had Germany developed and used the atomic bomb first against London and Paris, history would have been dramatically rewritten. America’s national destiny is deeply tied to its ability to attract global talent.
Today, no one is writing an “Admonition to Expel Guests” for America — and even if they did, Trump likely wouldn’t listen.
A Strategic Opportunity for Mainland China and Hong Kong
This moment presents a golden opportunity for both Mainland China and Hong Kong to attract talent. Before the 2019 pandemic, China hosted 500,000 foreign students, mostly enrolled in Chinese language programs. The pandemic caused a mass exodus, and numbers have yet to recover fully. With China’s growing strength, it should establish numerous international departments at top universities to attract the world’s brightest minds.
Hong Kong, too, can seize this chance to draw global talent originally aiming for US universities. With a declining birthrate, the SAR government recently raised the quota for foreign students in local universities from 20% to 40%—a welcome policy. If Hong Kong can attract a large influx of international talent, it could elevate its development to a new level.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
At the arrival of 2026, the happiest thing is to see the "Hong Kong is dead" narrative—proclaimed so loudly by Western voices—die yet again.
Foreign Money Returns Home
The West has written Hong Kong's obituary more times than you can count. They believed the city's return to China should have been its death sentence. American magazine Fortune declared "The Death of Hong Kong" on its 1995 cover—two years before the handover even happened. Hong Kong survived the Asian financial turmoil in the early post-handover years. It survived SARS. Then came 2019's Black Riots, followed by US sanctions on Hong Kong officials in 2020 and the pandemic's hammer blow. Foreign capital fled in an American-orchestrated exodus, with much of it landing in Singapore.
Last February, Stephen Roach—Yale University senior fellow—wrote in the UK's Financial Times with a headline that said it all: "It pains me to say Hong Kong is over." Foreign investors don't just track economic growth when they assess Hong Kong. They watch the stock market. And over the past year, Hong Kong's miraculous stock market comeback has bankrupted the "Hong Kong is dead" theory.
Hong Kong's economy grew an estimated 3.2% in 2025—ranking it among the developed world's top performers. But the stock market performance was getting really interesting. Average daily turnover in the first 11 months hit HK$230.7 billion—a massive 43% jump compared to 2024's same period.
Record-Breaking Fundraising Wins
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange crushed it in 2025. A total of 119 new listings raised HK$285.8 billion—a staggering 220% year-on-year increase and the highest since 2021. According to KPMG's report, HKEX ranked first globally in fundraising. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq tied for second place. Looking ahead, HKEX's fundraising is estimated to reach HK$300-350 billion in 2026, keeping it among the world's top exchanges.
Sure, Mainland capital is investing in Hong Kong. But foreign capital's return has been the real game-changer behind the stock market's strong performance. According to fund industry insiders, what we're seeing now is only wave one—primarily hedge funds and other medium-to-short-term players. As Hong Kong's trading volumes swell and quality Mainland companies list here, the long-term foreign funds will gradually return. The outlook for Hong Kong stocks continues to look favorable.
America's narrative said Hong Kong's National Security Law would scare capital away. Reality proved exactly the opposite. Hong Kong's stable environment gave Chinese companies the confidence to list here. America's targeting of Chinese concept stocks listed on its exchanges was self-destruction—forcing quality Chinese companies to turn to Hong Kong for listing instead. This made Hong Kong's stock market bigger and stronger, compelling even bearish foreign capital to come back.
Beijing's Seal of Approval
President Xi's remarks when meeting Chief Executive John Lee during his duty visit to Beijing in mid-December reveal what work the central government values in Hong Kong. President Xi opened with praise for the Chief Executive's courage and initiative in leading the SAR government. He highlighted four key achievements: steadfast maintenance of national security, successful Legislative Council elections, proactive integration into national development, and achieving steady economic growth.
President Xi's assessment underscores Beijing's high recognition of Hong Kong's ability to do both—safeguard national security and develop the economy simultaneously. Some Hong Kong people believed that having transitioned "from chaos to governance and then to prosperity," the city should set aside national security to focus on economic development. Reality proved this view wrong. Hong Kong must strike a balance between these seemingly contradictory goals and advance on both fronts at once.
Look at Hong Kong's development over the past five years. The city emerged from Black Riots and the pandemic in 2021, achieving a strong rebound from the bottom in 2023. The return to normalcy brought revenge spending that temporarily elevated market sentiment.
But entering 2024, local consumption patterns underwent structural changes. Hong Kong people shopping across the border diverted local retail spending. The strong Hong Kong dollar—tracking the US dollar—and high interest rates suppressed economic activity, leading to structural adjustment.
By the second half of 2025, Hong Kong entered a phase of moderate recovery. The property market began stabilizing after its decline. With the US starting rate cuts in September, capital supply loosened. Hong Kong can continue along this recovery path in 2026—that's the estimate anyway.
Despite the optimism, Hong Kong people must keep working hard. The many vacant shops you see on the streets tell the story—retail economy pressure remains real. In 2024, Hong Kong's total retail sales value of HK$376.8 billion represented a 7.3% year-on-year decline. That's painful for the retail sector.
Retail's Reversal Ahead
Through October 2025, retail sales values remained comparable to the previous year. But consumption began recovering in the second half—retail sales value rose 3.8% in August, 6% in September, and 6.9% in October. 2025 showed an early decline followed by growth, with accelerating consumption momentum. Retail consumption is expected to reverse its decline in 2026.
During this retail transformation, we Hong Kong people must continue their efforts. Old businesses will still be eliminated—that's inevitable. Strategic adjustments are required. New opportunities must be pursued.
Bottom line: Hong Kong's economic performance in 2025 proves once again that the "Hong Kong is dead" theory dies—one more time. Hong Kong has weathered different shocks repeatedly in the past, emerging reborn each time like a phoenix from the ashes.
Lo Wing Hung
