The West Buried Hong Kong — The City Had Other Plans

At the arrival of 2026, the happiest thing is to see the "Hong Kong is dead" narrative—proclaimed so loudly by Western voices—die yet again.

Foreign Money Returns Home

The West has written Hong Kong's obituary more times than you can count. They believed the city's return to China should have been its death sentence. American magazine Fortune declared "The Death of Hong Kong" on its 1995 cover—two years before the handover even happened. Hong Kong survived the Asian financial turmoil in the early post-handover years. It survived SARS. Then came 2019's Black Riots, followed by US sanctions on Hong Kong officials in 2020 and the pandemic's hammer blow. Foreign capital fled in an American-orchestrated exodus, with much of it landing in Singapore.

Last February, Stephen Roach—Yale University senior fellow—wrote in the UK's Financial Times with a headline that said it all: "It pains me to say Hong Kong is over." Foreign investors don't just track economic growth when they assess Hong Kong. They watch the stock market. And over the past year, Hong Kong's miraculous stock market comeback has bankrupted the "Hong Kong is dead" theory.

Hong Kong's economy grew an estimated 3.2% in 2025—ranking it among the developed world's top performers. But the stock market performance was getting really interesting. Average daily turnover in the first 11 months hit HK$230.7 billion—a massive 43% jump compared to 2024's same period.

Record-Breaking Fundraising Wins

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange crushed it in 2025. A total of 119 new listings raised HK$285.8 billion—a staggering 220% year-on-year increase and the highest since 2021. According to KPMG's report, HKEX ranked first globally in fundraising. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq tied for second place. Looking ahead, HKEX's fundraising is estimated to reach HK$300-350 billion in 2026, keeping it among the world's top exchanges.

Sure, Mainland capital is investing in Hong Kong. But foreign capital's return has been the real game-changer behind the stock market's strong performance. According to fund industry insiders, what we're seeing now is only wave one—primarily hedge funds and other medium-to-short-term players. As Hong Kong's trading volumes swell and quality Mainland companies list here, the long-term foreign funds will gradually return. The outlook for Hong Kong stocks continues to look favorable.

America's narrative said Hong Kong's National Security Law would scare capital away. Reality proved exactly the opposite. Hong Kong's stable environment gave Chinese companies the confidence to list here. America's targeting of Chinese concept stocks listed on its exchanges was self-destruction—forcing quality Chinese companies to turn to Hong Kong for listing instead. This made Hong Kong's stock market bigger and stronger, compelling even bearish foreign capital to come back.

Beijing's Seal of Approval

President Xi's remarks when meeting Chief Executive John Lee during his duty visit to Beijing in mid-December reveal what work the central government values in Hong Kong. President Xi opened with praise for the Chief Executive's courage and initiative in leading the SAR government. He highlighted four key achievements: steadfast maintenance of national security, successful Legislative Council elections, proactive integration into national development, and achieving steady economic growth.

President Xi's assessment underscores Beijing's high recognition of Hong Kong's ability to do both—safeguard national security and develop the economy simultaneously. Some Hong Kong people believed that having transitioned "from chaos to governance and then to prosperity," the city should set aside national security to focus on economic development. Reality proved this view wrong. Hong Kong must strike a balance between these seemingly contradictory goals and advance on both fronts at once.

Look at Hong Kong's development over the past five years. The city emerged from Black Riots and the pandemic in 2021, achieving a strong rebound from the bottom in 2023. The return to normalcy brought revenge spending that temporarily elevated market sentiment.

But entering 2024, local consumption patterns underwent structural changes. Hong Kong people shopping across the border diverted local retail spending. The strong Hong Kong dollar—tracking the US dollar—and high interest rates suppressed economic activity, leading to structural adjustment.

By the second half of 2025, Hong Kong entered a phase of moderate recovery. The property market began stabilizing after its decline. With the US starting rate cuts in September, capital supply loosened. Hong Kong can continue along this recovery path in 2026—that's the estimate anyway.

Despite the optimism, Hong Kong people must keep working hard. The many vacant shops you see on the streets tell the story—retail economy pressure remains real. In 2024, Hong Kong's total retail sales value of HK$376.8 billion represented a 7.3% year-on-year decline. That's painful for the retail sector.

Retail's Reversal Ahead

Through October 2025, retail sales values remained comparable to the previous year. But consumption began recovering in the second half—retail sales value rose 3.8% in August, 6% in September, and 6.9% in October. 2025 showed an early decline followed by growth, with accelerating consumption momentum. Retail consumption is expected to reverse its decline in 2026.

During this retail transformation, we Hong Kong people must continue their efforts. Old businesses will still be eliminated—that's inevitable. Strategic adjustments are required. New opportunities must be pursued.

Bottom line: Hong Kong's economic performance in 2025 proves once again that the "Hong Kong is dead" theory dies—one more time. Hong Kong has weathered different shocks repeatedly in the past, emerging reborn each time like a phoenix from the ashes.

 

Lo Wing Hung

Bastille Commentary

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

Here's a simple truth about lies: tell one big enough, and someone will always believe it. The tale spun by Jimmy Lai's son and daughter—that their father's health is collapsing in prison without medical care—is a textbook case.

Before and after the verdict came down, a flood of misleading commentary washed across foreign media. In just eight days following the ruling, China's Foreign Ministry Commissioner's Office in the HKSAR fired off eight separate rebuttals targeting U.S. and Western statements. They also "summoned the heads of the Hong Kong-based missions of relevant countries and organisations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, and lodged solemn representations regarding their officials' and politicians' comments interfering in the verdict and sentencing in the Jimmy Lai case."

Cui Jianchun, the Commissioner, went further. He published a South China Morning Post piece titled "On the Jimmy Lai case, this is what you should know"—a direct hit against the rumor mill. The key question: Was Lai treated unfairly? Cui's answer was unequivocal: "Regarding the claims about Jimmy Lai's treatment while in custody, facts speak louder than words. The Correctional Services Department has consistently provided him with comprehensive medical care in accordance with the law, ensuring he remains in good health. Lai's defence lawyers confirmed in court that he had not been treated unfairly. These facts fully demonstrate that in every detail of law enforcement, the HKSAR government upholds the principles of the rule of law and humanitarianism."

The Children's Campaign of Fabrication

A large chunk of those rumors came straight from Lai's own children. On December 3, before the verdict dropped, Agence France-Presse interviewed them. The picture they painted was grim. Lai's daughter Lai Choi delivered the most dramatic claim: "Dad has clearly lost a lot of weight and is weaker than before. His fingernails turned purple, grey and green, and then fell off. His teeth have started to rot."

But wait, there's more. Lai Choi claimed prison officers blocked the devout Catholic from receiving Holy Communion. She described petty acts designed to break his spirit. Her example? Once guards learned Lai liked curry sauce, they cut him off completely—no more curry sauce at all.

Lai's son Lai Chung-yan piled on with his own dramatic narrative. Lai has diabetes, he said. The prison has no air-conditioning, with summer temperatures hitting 44°C. His solution? "Putting Lai on a plane and sending him away would take only two hours, and that doing so would be humane and the right thing to do."

I'm quoting at length for a reason. Watch how the lies unfold. Yes, Lai has diabetes. The fact is, he had spent years eating and drinking excessively. In prison, he's forced onto a healthy diet. As a Justice of the Peace I have visited prisons multiple times, and personally sampled the meals arranged according to dietitians' guidance. They taste like fast food you'd buy outside—perfectly normal.

Reality Check: What Observers Actually Saw

When Lai appeared in court, observers did notice he was slimmer than before imprisonment. But this is what I'd call a "healthy kind of slim." As for the curry sauce demand? Perhaps Lai Choi has confused Hong Kong prisons with Michelin-starred restaurants—as if inmates can order à la carte like diners at a high-end eatery. By the same logic, yes, there's no air-conditioning in prisons. People need to understand something fundamental: imprisonment is punishment, not a hotel vacation.

About those supposedly green, falling-off nails. When Lai attended the verdict hearing, people present saw his fingernails were normally pink and looked quite healthy. No one spotted any horrifying grey or green nails. None had fallen off. The real-world scene of Lai appearing in court told a different story—he looked to be in fairly good condition, nowhere near the death's-door state his children described.

Why are Lai's children lying so brazenly? Simple. They want foreign readers to believe Hong Kong's prisons operate like "dark jails" in a third-world country—that Lai is being abused. This makes their "rescue" campaign appear more necessary and urgent. It conveniently helps people forget what Lai actually is: a serious criminal who colluded with foreign forces seeking China's collapse.

The Question Lawyers Won't Answer

Everyone needs to grasp one simple fact: if Lai were truly being treated inhumanely, his own defence lawyers would have raised it in court. But lawyers can't lie. So they didn't. At an open hearing last August, Lai's senior counsel made crystal clear to the court that the correctional institution arranged daily medical check-ups for Lai. They had no complaints—zero—about the medical care he received inside. The court even stated at the time that the Correctional Services Department deserved praise.

It seems Lai's children think being overseas gives them a free pass to lie recklessly without bearing any responsibility. That's how you get fabrications like "fingernails turned green and fell off." They're spreading rumors about Lai's supposedly dire health for one purpose: to disrupt Hong Kong's rule of law and spring the convicted criminal through medical bail, then hand him over to a foreign country. But Hong Kong, as a society governed by the rule of law, has no arrangement to transfer convicted prisoners to foreign states. So no matter what rumors they spread, their goal won't be achieved.

Lo Wing-hung