At the arrival of 2026, the happiest thing is to see the "Hong Kong is dead" narrative—proclaimed so loudly by Western voices—die yet again.
Foreign Money Returns Home
The West has written Hong Kong's obituary more times than you can count. They believed the city's return to China should have been its death sentence. American magazine Fortune declared "The Death of Hong Kong" on its 1995 cover—two years before the handover even happened. Hong Kong survived the Asian financial turmoil in the early post-handover years. It survived SARS. Then came 2019's Black Riots, followed by US sanctions on Hong Kong officials in 2020 and the pandemic's hammer blow. Foreign capital fled in an American-orchestrated exodus, with much of it landing in Singapore.
Last February, Stephen Roach—Yale University senior fellow—wrote in the UK's Financial Times with a headline that said it all: "It pains me to say Hong Kong is over." Foreign investors don't just track economic growth when they assess Hong Kong. They watch the stock market. And over the past year, Hong Kong's miraculous stock market comeback has bankrupted the "Hong Kong is dead" theory.
Hong Kong's economy grew an estimated 3.2% in 2025—ranking it among the developed world's top performers. But the stock market performance was getting really interesting. Average daily turnover in the first 11 months hit HK$230.7 billion—a massive 43% jump compared to 2024's same period.
Record-Breaking Fundraising Wins
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange crushed it in 2025. A total of 119 new listings raised HK$285.8 billion—a staggering 220% year-on-year increase and the highest since 2021. According to KPMG's report, HKEX ranked first globally in fundraising. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq tied for second place. Looking ahead, HKEX's fundraising is estimated to reach HK$300-350 billion in 2026, keeping it among the world's top exchanges.
Sure, Mainland capital is investing in Hong Kong. But foreign capital's return has been the real game-changer behind the stock market's strong performance. According to fund industry insiders, what we're seeing now is only wave one—primarily hedge funds and other medium-to-short-term players. As Hong Kong's trading volumes swell and quality Mainland companies list here, the long-term foreign funds will gradually return. The outlook for Hong Kong stocks continues to look favorable.
America's narrative said Hong Kong's National Security Law would scare capital away. Reality proved exactly the opposite. Hong Kong's stable environment gave Chinese companies the confidence to list here. America's targeting of Chinese concept stocks listed on its exchanges was self-destruction—forcing quality Chinese companies to turn to Hong Kong for listing instead. This made Hong Kong's stock market bigger and stronger, compelling even bearish foreign capital to come back.
Beijing's Seal of Approval
President Xi's remarks when meeting Chief Executive John Lee during his duty visit to Beijing in mid-December reveal what work the central government values in Hong Kong. President Xi opened with praise for the Chief Executive's courage and initiative in leading the SAR government. He highlighted four key achievements: steadfast maintenance of national security, successful Legislative Council elections, proactive integration into national development, and achieving steady economic growth.
President Xi's assessment underscores Beijing's high recognition of Hong Kong's ability to do both—safeguard national security and develop the economy simultaneously. Some Hong Kong people believed that having transitioned "from chaos to governance and then to prosperity," the city should set aside national security to focus on economic development. Reality proved this view wrong. Hong Kong must strike a balance between these seemingly contradictory goals and advance on both fronts at once.
Look at Hong Kong's development over the past five years. The city emerged from Black Riots and the pandemic in 2021, achieving a strong rebound from the bottom in 2023. The return to normalcy brought revenge spending that temporarily elevated market sentiment.
But entering 2024, local consumption patterns underwent structural changes. Hong Kong people shopping across the border diverted local retail spending. The strong Hong Kong dollar—tracking the US dollar—and high interest rates suppressed economic activity, leading to structural adjustment.
By the second half of 2025, Hong Kong entered a phase of moderate recovery. The property market began stabilizing after its decline. With the US starting rate cuts in September, capital supply loosened. Hong Kong can continue along this recovery path in 2026—that's the estimate anyway.
Despite the optimism, Hong Kong people must keep working hard. The many vacant shops you see on the streets tell the story—retail economy pressure remains real. In 2024, Hong Kong's total retail sales value of HK$376.8 billion represented a 7.3% year-on-year decline. That's painful for the retail sector.
Retail's Reversal Ahead
Through October 2025, retail sales values remained comparable to the previous year. But consumption began recovering in the second half—retail sales value rose 3.8% in August, 6% in September, and 6.9% in October. 2025 showed an early decline followed by growth, with accelerating consumption momentum. Retail consumption is expected to reverse its decline in 2026.
During this retail transformation, we Hong Kong people must continue their efforts. Old businesses will still be eliminated—that's inevitable. Strategic adjustments are required. New opportunities must be pursued.
Bottom line: Hong Kong's economic performance in 2025 proves once again that the "Hong Kong is dead" theory dies—one more time. Hong Kong has weathered different shocks repeatedly in the past, emerging reborn each time like a phoenix from the ashes.
Lo Wing Hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
“He preaches water and drinks wine.” This Western proverb could not be more apt in describing those “honorable” members of the US Congress sitting atop Capitol Hill.
The US Senate and House just greenlit the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026. Sure, it hikes defense spending. Buried in there are special provisions targeting China that would make any objective observer squirm.
The law mandates that the US Director of National Intelligence publish a public report disclosing the global financial status of Xi Jinping and other top Chinese leaders – plus their relatives. We're talking about all Politburo and Standing Committee members, their family members, including the so-called "white gloves" – financial agents managing assets on their behalf.
It’s specified that the report must be unclassified, available online for anyone with an internet connection to read. A similar clause appeared in the 2023 NDAA but got dismissed as superficial. However, this version is detailed, explicit, and loaded with congressional pressure to expose what the US lawmakers claim is hidden Chinese wealth.
Capitol Hill's Shameless Overreach
Watching these American legislators operate is infuriating. They slip targeted clauses against Chinese leaders into a domestic bill, essentially broadcasting to the world that China's leadership sits on vast private fortunes – corruption implied. Since the law requires public release, this isn't about genuine investigation. It's propaganda, pure and simple.
First question: what right does the US have to do this? If Congress passes a bill investigating American citizens' assets, nobody can object. But investigating foreign leaders' finances? That's a different story entirely.
Another country's leadership finances should be handled by that country's own institutions – not Washington's long arm. This arrogance stems from "American Exceptionalism," a concept that still drives US foreign policy today.
The term "American Exceptionalism" was coined back in 1831 by Alexis de Tocqueville. It expresses the notion that America is unique – founded on liberty, individualism, equality before the law, and laissez-faire capitalism. Through this lens, America stands stable, prosperous, and incomparable to any other nation – an ideal constitutional republic.
When Kitchens Became Battlegrounds
From this belief emerged a foreign policy where the US sees itself as a chosen nation entitled to impose its "perfect" system on others – even launching color revolutions to topple governments and force them to replicate American democracy. During the Cold War, Americans framed this ideological struggle as "freedom and democracy" versus "Communist tyranny." The famous "Kitchen Debate" perfectly captured this mindset.
In July 1959, at the American National Exhibition opening in Moscow, 46-year-old Vice President Richard Nixon sparred with 65-year-old Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev inside a model American kitchen on display. The exhibit showcased washing machines, refrigerators, and household appliances as symbols of capitalist prosperity.
Before the cameras, Khrushchev remarked that Soviets cared only for practicality, not luxury. Nixon shot back that under capitalism, Americans enjoyed the freedom to choose how they lived – to buy or not to buy. Most observers concluded Nixon won that round, largely because America's material abundance stood in stark contrast to Soviet austerity.
But today? Time has turned the tables. If Donald Trump visited China and rode a high-speed train, we might witness a new "High-Speed Rail Debate" – one where US capitalism would find itself at a distinct disadvantage.
Yet American politicians still cling to "American Exceptionalism," believing they hold the right to meddle everywhere. Now that America's strength has waned – its system corroded, its manufacturing hollowed out, its infrastructure decayed, its streets filled with drug-addled zombies – US lawmakers' persistence in policing the world reeks of dark comedy.
America's Fading Exceptionalism
Second question: what moral ground does the US stand on? Washington claims to expose corruption by investigating Chinese leaders' wealth, yet it ignores rampant corruption among its own politicians.
Take Trump. During his campaign, he enthusiastically championed cryptocurrency, promising to promote the sector once elected. Then, on the eve of taking office, he launched his own meme coin – "$Trump." By Chinese Mainland standards, that's textbook corruption: promoting a policy and, before assuming power, issuing a financial product that would benefit from that same policy. It's retail investor fleecing, plain and simple.
Here's the damage: $Trump launched before Trump's inauguration and peaked at USD 49.26. As of December 19? It's plunged to USD 5.07 – a brutal 90% collapse. Retail investors got ruthlessly fleeced, yet no one dares speak up.
The Stock Goddess Retires
Then there's Nancy Pelosi, former House Speaker – the real "Goddess of Stocks," outperforming even Warren Buffett. In 2023, Pelosi's family achieved an 84.3% investment return, crushing Buffett's numbers. Their fortune ballooned from USD 41 million in 2004 to USD 120 million in 2023, with some holdings soaring 96% in just a few years.
Market observers almost universally believe Pelosi trades on insider information – how else could anyone consistently outperform world-class fund managers? Her trades became so influential that investors created tracking tools and even an ETF fund mirroring her stock picks.
Pelosi denies any wrongdoing and dismisses accusations that lawmakers profit from nonpublic information. But she can't explain her uncanny market timing – a godlike ability that defies rational explanation.
Even some American progressives find this intolerable. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) proposed multiple bills to ban congressional stock trading. But as a minority voice, her proposals failed. No one can stop Capitol Hill's "Stock Goddess." Now that Pelosi announced plans to retire in 2027, investors mourn as if the market lost a guiding star – with no more Pelosi trades to follow for profit.
In the end, this is what "American democracy" has become – a system that openly permits abuse of power. Yet these very same legislators have the audacity to pass laws investigating the wealth of Chinese leaders. They preach water but drink wine – a hypocrisy so absurd it chills the spine.
Lo Wing-hung
