As the saying goes: walk by the river long enough, and your shoes will get wet. For Jimmy Lai, the shoes got soaked—and then he fell in.
When Western media still call Jimmy Lai a "media guy," it borders on absurd. From every encounter with the man, one thing is clear: he's no media visionary. He's a tacky tycoon with a gambler's instinct, staking everything on one bet after another—until the house finally won.
All-In Every Time
Jimmy Lai smuggled himself into Hong Kong and clawed his way up from nothing. His personality? Pure gambling instinct. He treated business like a casino floor, shoving every chip to the center of the table—win big or go bust. And for a while, luck smiled at him. From Comitex Knitters to Giordano fashion, his bets paid off. In 1990, he cashed out his Giordano shares and plunged into the media world, launching Next Magazine.
Calling it "all-in" is no exaggeration. When Next Magazine launched, his editorial team ballooned to 200 people. For a weekly. Most daily newspapers ran leaner operations—Hong Kong Economic Journal had 20-plus staff, Ming Pao just over 50, and even mass-market dailies topped out at 100 to 200. Lai went nuclear, poaching talent with 30 to 50 percent salary bumps, determined to crush the competition through sheer force.
The first year or two, book sales soared but advertising lagged. At one point, Lai couldn't even cover the printing bills. He borrowed everywhere just to survive. But once Next Magazine found its footing, he doubled down. In 1995 came his second big gamble: Apple Daily. He torched cash, slashing the newspaper price from HK$5 to HK$2, ripping open market share.
Victory Depends on the Opponent
When Apple Daily gained traction, Lai wanted more. In 1999, he launched "Apple Promotions," storming into the online shopping market. According to Lai's senior finance executives, he asked about first-month losses and complained they were too small. He thought losing less than HK$50 million a month lacked impact, so management cranked up the burn rate. Later, as losses mounted, Lai stopped asking. When "Apple Promotions" hemorrhaged over HK$1 billion after a year, he finally threw in the towel.
A pattern emerges: Lai only knows one strategy—the big-spending blitz. But victory or defeat hinges entirely on the opponent. If the other side has weaker finances or won't match his high-stakes gambling, he grabs territory. But "Apple Promotions" ran into PARKnSHOP, owned by Li Ka-shing's empire. That was a different ballgame altogether.
Li Ka-shing himself set up his war room right in his own office, constantly tracking price comparisons between PARKnSHOP and "Apple Promotions" for every product. When Lai's "Apple Promotions" sold coke at HK$2 per can, PARKnSHOP sold it for HK$1—they would fight until Lai died. When the opponent is strong enough and willing to brawl, Lai is no magic.
Betting Against Beijing
Later, as Lai's media business ballooned, he started meddling in Hong Kong politics—another massive gamble. But this time, his opponent was the Chinese Communist Party. When he went "all in" against Beijing, the outcome was sealed from the start.
When people still call Jimmy Lai a "media guy" or a "pro-democracy figure," it's pure self-deception. The truth is, he's just a businessman. On the eve of the 1997 handover, I once had tea with Apple's political editor. We discussed the philosophy behind Jimmy Lai's newspaper. That editor directly quoted what Jimmy Lai told her: To run a newspaper, you need people to read it and buy it. After the handover, there will be fewer anti-communist media in Hong Kong, creating market space. So we need to make an anti-communist newspaper—that will definitely make big money.
She also quoted Lai's golden line: If one day Hong Kong people embrace the Communist Party, his newspaper can immediately become pro-communist. That editor lamented at the time that her boss was so ruthlessly pragmatic—everything driven by profit, nothing else.
Buying Influence, Losing Everything
After profit comes the hunger for fame—to have both money and status. Once Lai's media operations succeeded, his ambitions swelled. He wanted to play politics and control everything. It's the classic trajectory of a tacky rich man. Lai's essence is no different from Trump's—everything must be his call. So he set out to become a pan-democratic boss, orchestrating Hong Kong's affairs.
He identified the most influential figures in the pan-democratic camp and cozied up to them: Martin Lee, Cardinal Joseph Zen, Anson Chan, former second-in-command in the Government. Martin Lee had his own wealth, but Lai provided money to Joseph Zen and Anson Chan—and they accepted. According to leaked emails in 2014, Joseph Zen received loads of money from Jimmy Lai. Later, when Zen was interviewed, he admitted receiving a cumulative HK$20 million from Jimmy Lai, which was used up quite quickly, mainly to help him do what he wanted as bishop. Pan-democrats later spread word that Zen used the money to help underground churches in the Chinese Mainland. But, such a large sum, without supervision or control, no one knew where it went.
The leaked emails revealed a long list of pan-democratic political elites who received payments. You can only say those people took money and worked for it—an equal exchange. They can't complain when something happens.
The River Swallowed Him Whole
In Jimmy Lai's eyes, spending some money to become a pan-democratic boss was a bargain. Not only could he satisfy his vanity, but he could also disrupt Hong Kong's situation and serve his Western masters behind the scenes.
Looking back at Jimmy Lai's life now, we see no ideals and no morals—only power and profit. He walked by the river for most of his life. His shoes got wet, and eventually, he fell into the water himself. If, after watching Jimmy Lai's entire trial and seeing the truth of his collusion with foreign forces, people still choose to support him, these people are truly beyond foolish.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
After three years of proceedings, the court has spoken: Jimmy Lai, Hong Kong's most serious national security offender to date, will spend the next two decades
For the two charges of "conspiracy to collude with foreign or external forces" under the Hong Kong National Security Law, the court set a 15-year starting point based on the case's overall severity. An additional "sedition" charge carried a 21-month baseline.
The judges made clear that Lai wasn't just another defendant. The court stated explicitly that he was "the mastermind and driving force behind these conspiracies”, and therefore “the starting point” of his sentences was "enhanced". This bumped the two collusion charges from 15 to 18 years, while the sedition charge rose from 21 to 23 months. After accounting for concurrent sentences and minor adjustments, the final tally landed at 20 years.
The Evidence Speaks
Consider what the court had to work with.
In July 2019, Lai met with US Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. What happened next tells you everything you need to know about where his loyalties lay.
At a Foundation for Defense of Democracies symposium, Lai proclaimed that he and Hong Kong people were "fighting your (the US’s) war in your enemy's camp". Let that sink in: a Hong Kong resident explicitly stating he's fighting for a foreign power. A traitor who publicly declares he's "fighting for America" gets a 20-year sentence—and it's well deserved.
Essentially Life Imprisonment
Under the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, prisoners serving sentences for National Security Law offences cannot have their cases referred to the Long-Term Prison Sentences Review Board for early release consideration—unless the Commissioner of Correctional Services is satisfied that early release wouldn't compromise national security.
What does this mean in practice? Ordinary prisoners who behave well typically see their sentences reduced by roughly one-third—but even this has always been at prison authorities' discretion, not an automatic right. The explicit language in the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance essentially signals that major national security offenders are highly unlikely to receive sentence reductions for early parole.
Lai is already serving time for a separate fraud conviction with 2 years and 3 months remaining. The court ordered that the current sentence essentially adds 18 years to his fraud term. Translation: if his fraud appeal fails, Lai will almost certainly serve the full 20 years. At 78 years old, he'd be 98 when released—meaning he'll very likely spend the rest of his life in prison.
The Cooperators' Calculus
Lai's case involved two groups of serious offenders. One group pleaded guilty and became accomplice witnesses, testifying against Lai. This included Wayland Chan and Li Yu-hin—who had fled Hong Kong but were brought back—as well as former Apple Daily CEO Cheung Kim Hung, former associate publisher Chan Pui-man, and former chief writer Yeung Ching-kee.
Starting from a 15-year baseline, these five ultimately received sentences ranging from 6 years and 3 months to 7 years and 3 months. That represents reductions of 7 years and 9 months to 8 years and 9 months. Five years came off for pleading guilty (the standard one-third reduction), with additional cuts for serving as accomplice witnesses.
The other three former Apple Daily executives—former editor-in-chief Law Wai Kwong, former executive editor-in-chief Lam Man-chung, and former English edition editor-in-chief Fung Wai Kwong—only received the one-third reduction for pleading guilty. Each was sentenced to 10 years.
Early Release on the Horizon
But that's not the full picture. After serving their sentences partially, accomplice witnesses have the opportunity to receive approval from the Correctional Services Department for early parole—potentially cutting another third off their time. In the "NSL 47 subversion case," accomplice witness Chiu Ka-yin received early parole, setting a precedent.
The five accomplice witnesses mentioned above may actually serve just 4-plus to 5-plus years before release. Since they were arrested in June 2021 and have already been detained for 4 years and 8 months, parole could come soon. The math is revealing: the difference between pleading guilty without becoming an accomplice witness versus pleading guilty and cooperating can be more than half your sentence—approximately 5 years. The entire judicial system incentivizes offenders to become accomplice witnesses.
Justice Delivered, Damage Done
Looking back at the entire trial, Hong Kong courts convicted and heavily sentenced the principal offender based on substantial and sufficient evidence. This is what judicial justice looks like. Lai didn't just collude with foreign governments, demanding sanctions against the Central and SAR governments—he actively tried to promote what he called "zhibao" (regime collapse) in China. His intentions were vicious from the start.
But the real damage goes deeper. Lai weaponized his own media outlets to incite subversive thoughts against the government, mobilizing large numbers of young people to take to the streets in 2019. Hundreds of rioters who believed Lai's political propaganda participated in riot after riot, ultimately getting arrested and imprisoned. Large numbers of black-clad rioters also fled overseas to escape prosecution, unable to ever return to Hong Kong.
Lai's poisoning of young minds and the damage he inflicted on Hong Kong society are too numerous to catalog. Twenty years' imprisonment is insufficient to compensate for his crimes.
The West's Selective Outrage
Before and after sentencing, foreign forces have been attacking Hong Kong extensively, with some even claiming they'll "rescue" Jimmy Lai. Make no mistake: Lai was arrested in his own country for violating national security laws and, after a fair trial, was sentenced. This is what the rule of law looks like in action.
Now contrast this with what happened to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was illegally invaded and arrested by the United States, then taken back to America for trial. That's what a brutal trampling of international law looks like. Western political activists are so interested in rescuing Lai, yet no one's interested in rescuing Maduro. The hypocrisy is stunning.
What kind of logic are these people operating on? The answer is simple: wherever their American masters waves their flags, they follow. Logic doesn't enter the equation.
Lo Wing-hung
