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Lai’s Downfall: When A Gambler Bets Against Beijing

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Lai’s Downfall: When A Gambler Bets Against Beijing
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Lai’s Downfall: When A Gambler Bets Against Beijing

2026-02-13 11:52 Last Updated At:11:52

As the saying goes: walk by the river long enough, and your shoes will get wet. For Jimmy Lai, the shoes got soaked—and then he fell in.

When Western media still call Jimmy Lai a "media guy," it borders on absurd. From every encounter with the man, one thing is clear: he's no media visionary. He's a tacky tycoon with a gambler's instinct, staking everything on one bet after another—until the house finally won.

All-In Every Time

Jimmy Lai smuggled himself into Hong Kong and clawed his way up from nothing. His personality? Pure gambling instinct. He treated business like a casino floor, shoving every chip to the center of the table—win big or go bust. And for a while, luck smiled at him. From Comitex Knitters to Giordano fashion, his bets paid off. In 1990, he cashed out his Giordano shares and plunged into the media world, launching Next Magazine.

Calling it "all-in" is no exaggeration. When Next Magazine launched, his editorial team ballooned to 200 people. For a weekly. Most daily newspapers ran leaner operations—Hong Kong Economic Journal had 20-plus staff, Ming Pao just over 50, and even mass-market dailies topped out at 100 to 200. Lai went nuclear, poaching talent with 30 to 50 percent salary bumps, determined to crush the competition through sheer force.

The first year or two, book sales soared but advertising lagged. At one point, Lai couldn't even cover the printing bills. He borrowed everywhere just to survive. But once Next Magazine found its footing, he doubled down. In 1995 came his second big gamble: Apple Daily. He torched cash, slashing the newspaper price from HK$5 to HK$2, ripping open market share.

Victory Depends on the Opponent

When Apple Daily gained traction, Lai wanted more. In 1999, he launched "Apple Promotions," storming into the online shopping market. According to Lai's senior finance executives, he asked about first-month losses and complained they were too small. He thought losing less than HK$50 million a month lacked impact, so management cranked up the burn rate. Later, as losses mounted, Lai stopped asking. When "Apple Promotions" hemorrhaged over HK$1 billion after a year, he finally threw in the towel.

A pattern emerges: Lai only knows one strategy—the big-spending blitz. But victory or defeat hinges entirely on the opponent. If the other side has weaker finances or won't match his high-stakes gambling, he grabs territory. But "Apple Promotions" ran into PARKnSHOP, owned by Li Ka-shing's empire. That was a different ballgame altogether.

Li Ka-shing himself set up his war room right in his own office, constantly tracking price comparisons between PARKnSHOP and "Apple Promotions" for every product. When Lai's "Apple Promotions" sold coke at HK$2 per can, PARKnSHOP sold it for HK$1—they would fight until Lai died. When the opponent is strong enough and willing to brawl, Lai is no magic.

Betting Against Beijing

Later, as Lai's media business ballooned, he started meddling in Hong Kong politics—another massive gamble. But this time, his opponent was the Chinese Communist Party. When he went "all in" against Beijing, the outcome was sealed from the start.

When people still call Jimmy Lai a "media guy" or a "pro-democracy figure," it's pure self-deception. The truth is, he's just a businessman. On the eve of the 1997 handover, I once had tea with Apple's political editor. We discussed the philosophy behind Jimmy Lai's newspaper. That editor directly quoted what Jimmy Lai told her: To run a newspaper, you need people to read it and buy it. After the handover, there will be fewer anti-communist media in Hong Kong, creating market space. So we need to make an anti-communist newspaper—that will definitely make big money.

She also quoted Lai's golden line: If one day Hong Kong people embrace the Communist Party, his newspaper can immediately become pro-communist. That editor lamented at the time that her boss was so ruthlessly pragmatic—everything driven by profit, nothing else.

Buying Influence, Losing Everything

After profit comes the hunger for fame—to have both money and status. Once Lai's media operations succeeded, his ambitions swelled. He wanted to play politics and control everything. It's the classic trajectory of a tacky rich man. Lai's essence is no different from Trump's—everything must be his call. So he set out to become a pan-democratic boss, orchestrating Hong Kong's affairs.

He identified the most influential figures in the pan-democratic camp and cozied up to them: Martin Lee, Cardinal Joseph Zen, Anson Chan, former second-in-command in the Government. Martin Lee had his own wealth, but Lai provided money to Joseph Zen and Anson Chan—and they accepted. According to leaked emails in 2014, Joseph Zen received loads of money from Jimmy Lai. Later, when Zen was interviewed, he admitted receiving a cumulative HK$20 million from Jimmy Lai, which was used up quite quickly, mainly to help him do what he wanted as bishop. Pan-democrats later spread word that Zen used the money to help underground churches in the Chinese Mainland. But, such a large sum, without supervision or control, no one knew where it went.

The leaked emails revealed a long list of pan-democratic political elites who received payments. You can only say those people took money and worked for it—an equal exchange. They can't complain when something happens.

The River Swallowed Him Whole

In Jimmy Lai's eyes, spending some money to become a pan-democratic boss was a bargain. Not only could he satisfy his vanity, but he could also disrupt Hong Kong's situation and serve his Western masters behind the scenes.

Looking back at Jimmy Lai's life now, we see no ideals and no morals—only power and profit. He walked by the river for most of his life. His shoes got wet, and eventually, he fell into the water himself. If, after watching Jimmy Lai's entire trial and seeing the truth of his collusion with foreign forces, people still choose to support him, these people are truly beyond foolish.

Lo Wing-hung




Bastille Commentary

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

US President Trump's baffling maneuvers have trapped himself in a chaotic command dilemma in the war against Iran.

Online commentary jokes that Donald Trump follows "The Art of Donald", or say, “The Art of Don’t Know”—" If even I know not my next move, how then could the enemy? "—implying that Trump blindly charges ahead, and naturally the enemy can’t decipher his strategy because he has none at all.


Before launching the conflict with Iran, Trump relied heavily on the United States’ military supremacy—aircraft carriers, stealth fighters, Tomahawk missiles, and the THAAD defense system. He assumed a heavy bombardment campaign would either topple the Iranian regime or force it to surrender.

This single-script scenario repeated everywhere like a formula. When Iran’s actual response deviated from the script, Trump, the director, found himself at a loss and resorted to "The Art of Donald."

First, the bluffing

Just over a week ago, Trump concluded the war was unwinnable and called for peace talks with Iran. On March 30, he posted on his self-founded social media platform Truth Social, claiming serious negotiations with a "new, more rational regime" in Iran had made significant progress.

Yet, Trump simultaneously threatened that if talks failed, the US would utterly destroy all of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and the oil export hub Kharg Island.

The United States keeps sending more Marine Corps troops to the Middle East as a clear show of force, trying to pressure Iran into talks. The goal is to quickly reach a ceasefire and force acceptance of the so-called "15-point ceasefire plan" pushed by the US, effectively demanding total surrender.

But, if deploying troops were so straightforward, Trump would have already sent forces on the ground. His repeated talk of troop deployments is more bluff than action—he is determined to avoid another Afghanistan-style quagmire. Iran has seen right through these empty threats.


Second, the blown cover 

If Russia’s protracted three-year assault on Ukraine has gradually exposed its limits, the United States blew its cover in just three weeks—both diplomatically and militarily. Trump claimed for over a week that talks with Iran were underway, but Tehran has flatly denied it. On March 31, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei posted on the X platform, rejecting claims of negotiations. He said, "In the past 31 days, we have had no negotiations with the United States. The US has only transmitted a series of proposals to Iran via intermediaries including Pakistan." Baghaei emphasized that Iran hasn't forgotten past failed talks with the US


Trump has essentially been negotiating with thin air. If forced to choose between the US and Iranian accounts, I’d believe Iran. Genuine talks have not happened. The US has merely relayed peace proposals through third parties, with no real bargaining underway.

The US has also revealed military vulnerabilities. After Iran hit the supposedly invincible F-35 stealth fighter jet, on March 27 Iran attacked the US Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging multiple American aircrafts. A $300 million E-3 Sentry Airborne Early

Warning and Control aircraft was struck by an Iranian missile on the runway as it prepared for takeoff, breaking in two—a first for the E-3 in wartime. This incident reveals serious flaws in the US missile defense system, thus allowing Iran’s destruction of such a vital early-warning aircraft.


Earlier, the US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford had cited a laundry room fire before withdrawing from the Red Sea combat zone. But on March 17, Trump told the audience at a Saudi investment forum in Miami that the Ford was attacked. He said Iranian missiles struck the carrier from 17 different angles, putting the situation on board in grave danger. Trump's unexpected disclosure casts doubt on the official explanation that a laundry fire prompted the Ford’s exit from the Middle East, suggesting it was in fact hit and caught fire.

The US military’s cover is quickly blown in the US-Iran conflict.

Thirdly, Risks and Opportunities 

Trump’s so-called “Art of Donald” lacks a follow-up plan, leaving a deadlock that stalls any deal with Iran. US officials told The Wall Street Journal, in a report published on March 30, that Trump informed aides he would be willing to halt military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Instead, pressure would shift to diplomatic channels to restore free trade flow. Essentially, Trump plans to unilaterally halt hostilities if negotiations with Iran collapse.

With oil prices surging, the whole world must share the burden—Hong Kong included. Yet amid the chaos, Hong Kong finds some opportunities. On March 31, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that three Chinese vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including the Hong Kong-registered container ships CSCL Arctic Ocean and CSCL Indian Ocean, which had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over a month.

Since late February, this is the first time that China’s large ships have transited the Strait, restoring confidence in the global supply chain. Coordinated by the Chinese government, Hong Kong’s container ships remain among the few commercial vessels able to navigate Hormuz. Amid Middle East turmoil, Hong Kong stands out as an alternative stable choice—and it must seize these opportunities.

Lo Wing-hung

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