Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 2.9 percent in 2025 and 2026, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday.
In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD revised down its global growth forecast for the two years by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from its March forecast, citing a technical assumption that existing tariff rates as of mid-May will remain in place, despite ongoing legal disputes.
The organization warned that if current trends persist -- such as rising trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakening business and consumer confidence and increased policy uncertainty -- they could significantly undermine global growth prospects.
The OECD forecast that, due to factors such as uncertainty in trade and economic policies, the U.S. economy will grow by 1.6 percent this year, 0.6 percentage points lower than its March projection, making it one of the major economies with a notably significant slowdown in growth.
Unlike the trend of easing inflation expectations among G20 countries, the overall inflation forecast for the U.S. this year was raised by 0.4 percentage points from the organization’s March forecast to 3.2 percent.
OECD lowers global GDP growth projection in 2025, 2026
OECD lowers global GDP growth projection in 2025, 2026
OECD lowers global GDP growth projection in 2025, 2026
The Navy of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said that the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked since Saturday evening and will not reopen until the United States lifts its naval blockade on the waterway.
In a statement carried by its official news outlet Sepah News, the IGRC said that the move came after the United States violated its commitments under the two-week ceasefire, which took effect on April 8, and failed to end its naval blockade against Iranian vessels and ports.
The IRGC Navy called on all vessels and their owners to follow official updates via its channel and VHF Channel 16, the international maritime distress, safety, and calling frequency. The statements by U.S. President Donald Trump hold no credibility in the strait and the Gulf, it added.
The IRGC warned that no vessel should move from its anchorage in the Gulf or the Gulf of Oman, and any approach to the strait would be deemed "cooperation with the enemy" and targeted accordingly.
Tehran's political leadership echoed the IRGC's firm position. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf asserted that the Strait of Hormuz is under Iran's control, revealing that during previous negotiations, Iran had firmly countered U.S. attempts to carry out minesweeping operations, which Tehran viewed as a ceasefire violation.
He said the situation had come close to conflict, but the U.S. had eventually backed off.
Calling the U.S. maritime blockade "reckless and ignorant," Ghalibaf warned that passage through the strait would certainly be restricted if Washington does not lift the blockade.
Underpinning these public announcements, Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Saturday affirmed the country's resolve to exercise control and supervision over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until the war is definitively ended and lasting peace is achieved in the region.
For its part, the United States pressed ahead with its own military measures.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement on Saturday that the U.S. military is imposing a maritime blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports and nearby coastal areas. Since the blockade began on April 13, 23 ships have complied with U.S. directions to turn around.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military is preparing in the coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing U.S. officials.
The move will enable the U.S. to take control of Iran-linked vessels around the world, including ships carrying Iranian oil that are already sailing outside the Persian Gulf and those carrying arms that could support Tehran, the report said.
Iran's IRGC says Strait of Hormuz blocked, demands end to US naval blockade
