The world keeps turning, but Trump's art of the deal can't keep up with the spin. Do you think you're the smartest of them all?
Following the recent announcement that China and the US reached a framework agreement in London, Trump claimed that Beijing would resume rare earth exports, and in exchange, the US promised to open American university doors to Chinese students. The self-proclaimed master dealmaker declared that "US-China relations are now very good," scrambling to seize the initiative and steer future developments. But here's the thing – the Chinese narrative runs much deeper, and it's worth paying attention to. It can be asserted that rare earths remain scarce, and they have no intention of becoming a gift for Trump's 79th birthday. If there's anything to offer, it's just a birthday greeting: There is no king in this world!
Framework Fumbles
France's Le Monde yesterday described the US-China‘s London framework agreement as vague in content, with uncertain rare earth details. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick's statement on CNBC Wednesday that "China will approve all magnet applications from US companies as quickly as possible" either misunderstands China's position or misleads the international community.
Le Monde reported that there are doubts about whether Beijing will fully lift the licensing blockade on rare earth and magnet exports. According to The Wall Street Journal's reporting, China has only committed to licenses valid for six months – if this is accurate, there may be renewed blockades on rare earth and magnet exports in the future. The publication emphasized that China's narrative about the London agreement is currently lacking in details. While Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Li Chenggang praised the London negotiations as highly professional, rational, in-depth, and candid, he did not specifically explain what commitments China made or what benefits it received.
Since the rare earth issue remains shrouded in secrecy, there's no point in further speculation. Let me tell a story as an example – because sometimes history has a funny way of rhyming.
When the West Played Gatekeeper
After World War II, Western developed industrial nations banded together, attempting to restrict socialist bloc countries by creating embargo lists covering three major categories: military equipment, cutting-edge technology, and rare materials – encompassing tens of thousands of products.
In November 1949, the US led the establishment of an organization called the "Paris Coordinating Committee," officially known as the "Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls." COCOM had 17 member countries: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Greece, Turkey, Japan, and Australia – all Western bloc nations. "Those blacklisted by COCOM included not only socialist countries but also some nationalist countries, affecting approximately 30 nations," aiming for complete coverage.
The world progresses, and Western embargoes are double-edged swords – a lesson that seems to have been forgotten by some. In November 1993, COCOM held a meeting in the Netherlands, concluding that COCOM "had lost its reason for continued existence." In 1994, COCOM was officially dissolved. However, the West retained its restrictive measures, merely trimming the list items, with the responsibility inherited by the "Wassenaar Arrangement" established in 1996. By 2021, the organization had expanded to 42 countries, including Russia, with the rest being European nations and US-friendly Asia-Pacific countries. China is not on the Wassenaar Arrangement's participant list. China is a country monitored by this organization, which is why Europe and America have been aggressively restricting China's access to semiconductor chips, supercomputers, space programs, and lithography machines in recent years – appearing reasonable and measured.
As a side note, COCOM's establishment coincidentally coincided with the founding of New China. The US assembled 17 countries to implement high-tech blockades against socialist China, even establishing a special "China Committee" to formulate 500 prohibited items.
Conclusion: The Tables Have Turned
For all these years, China has stood alone against the pack, consistently respecting your rules and spirit. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Now, you need to understand the logic of rare earths – and perhaps accept that the shoe is on the other foot.
Deep Blue
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
Wang Yi just put the world on notice. "The international situation is getting more turbulent and intertwined," he said. "Unilateral bullying is intensifying. The sudden change in Venezuela has drawn high level of attention from the international community."
He then added: "We never believe that any country can play the role of world policeman, nor do we agree that any country can claim itself to be an international judge."
This isn't diplomatic chitchat. Wang Yi added that "the sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected under international law." It's a warning shot fired directly at Trump's so-called "New Monroe Doctrine"—and it signals China will push back hard against neo-colonialism. One story from China's past shows exactly what that means.
The Incheon Gamble
In mid-September 1950, MacArthur pulled off the audacious Incheon landing—later hailed as "the most successful gamble" in military history. He bet everything on one card: that North Korean forces would be lax defending a port with terrible geography. The bet paid off. US forces achieved total surprise, cut enemy supply lines, and reversed the early disasters of the Korean War.
The Korean Peninsula was strategically vital to both China and the Soviet Union. They planned to back North Korea. At 1:00 a.m. on October 3, Zhou Enlai urgently summoned K. M. Panikkar, India's ambassador to China. His message was blunt: "If US forces cross the 38th parallel, we cannot stand by—we will have to step in."
The CCP's official Party history records this moment and emphasizes one critical word: "管" (to intervene). The Chinese term posed a translation challenge. If the wording was too soft, the Americans might miss China's intent. So Premier Zhou asked his foreign affairs secretary, Pu Shouchang, to choose carefully. Pu used "intervene"—making China's intention crystal clear. China would step in and interfere. The message reached Washington quickly through India. Yet "the US side chose to ignore it, and US forces brazenly crossed the 38th parallel on October 7."
Crossing the Yalu
American troops didn't just cross the 38th parallel—they surged in force toward the Yalu River and raced along the China-North Korea and North Korea-Soviet borders to the Tumen River. What happened next? On October 19, 1950, the Chinese People's Volunteers crossed the Yalu River. After five successive campaigns, they drove UN forces back from the Yalu area to near the 38th parallel.
On July 27, 1953, China, North Korea, and the UN Command signed the Korean Armistice Agreement. Many believe Mao Zedong's decision to send troops delivered China a stunning victory—a weaker power defeating a stronger one. People now say China "won so hard it felt unreal."
MacArthur—that "godlike general"—couldn't let it go. After his success at Incheon, the more he thought about it, the more he wanted to expand his gains. He proposed a radical escalation to Washington: first, blockade China's coast; second, use naval and air power for unlimited bombing to completely destroy China's industrial production and infrastructure; third, bring in Nationalist (KMT) forces to "retake the mainland" and tie China down. Then fourth, MacArthur went even further with a wild proposal—drop 20 to 30 atomic bombs on China and create a radioactive "death zone" along the Yalu River between China and North Korea.
Trump's MacArthur Moment
Today's Trump thinks arresting Venezuela's president and his wife means he can bulldoze the whole world. One moment he talks about "taking over" Venezuela. The next he claims he can make personnel arrangements for that country, sending Marco Rubio to serve as a "governor." Meanwhile, US oil giants are poised to "swallow up" Venezuela's petroleum assets. Trump's ambition follows the same logic as MacArthur's back then.
MacArthur's recklessness enraged America's allies. They feared World War III. More importantly, the Soviet Union—which also possessed atomic weapons—was deeply dissatisfied with the US and warned that "bombs can be answered with bombs." President Truman faced an impossible choice: keep his war hero or keep the peace. He chose peace. On April 11, 1951, Truman fired MacArthur—ending the career of America's most celebrated general. MacArthur became one of the century's biggest cautionary tales.
The lesson is simple, direct, and brutal. Trump thinks everyone is scared of him and that he can keep throwing out ever more outrageous "deals" at will. That will invite disaster—because it crosses the tolerance threshold of the great-power balance. The major powers will have to "intervene."
How will they intervene? Great powers have many tools in their toolbox. Think of Schrödinger's cat—you open the box yourself and you'll find out the outcome. This isn't a joke. Do you dare try?
