The world keeps turning, but Trump's art of the deal can't keep up with the spin. Do you think you're the smartest of them all?
Following the recent announcement that China and the US reached a framework agreement in London, Trump claimed that Beijing would resume rare earth exports, and in exchange, the US promised to open American university doors to Chinese students. The self-proclaimed master dealmaker declared that "US-China relations are now very good," scrambling to seize the initiative and steer future developments. But here's the thing – the Chinese narrative runs much deeper, and it's worth paying attention to. It can be asserted that rare earths remain scarce, and they have no intention of becoming a gift for Trump's 79th birthday. If there's anything to offer, it's just a birthday greeting: There is no king in this world!
Framework Fumbles
France's Le Monde yesterday described the US-China‘s London framework agreement as vague in content, with uncertain rare earth details. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick's statement on CNBC Wednesday that "China will approve all magnet applications from US companies as quickly as possible" either misunderstands China's position or misleads the international community.
Le Monde reported that there are doubts about whether Beijing will fully lift the licensing blockade on rare earth and magnet exports. According to The Wall Street Journal's reporting, China has only committed to licenses valid for six months – if this is accurate, there may be renewed blockades on rare earth and magnet exports in the future. The publication emphasized that China's narrative about the London agreement is currently lacking in details. While Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Li Chenggang praised the London negotiations as highly professional, rational, in-depth, and candid, he did not specifically explain what commitments China made or what benefits it received.
Since the rare earth issue remains shrouded in secrecy, there's no point in further speculation. Let me tell a story as an example – because sometimes history has a funny way of rhyming.
When the West Played Gatekeeper
After World War II, Western developed industrial nations banded together, attempting to restrict socialist bloc countries by creating embargo lists covering three major categories: military equipment, cutting-edge technology, and rare materials – encompassing tens of thousands of products.
In November 1949, the US led the establishment of an organization called the "Paris Coordinating Committee," officially known as the "Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls." COCOM had 17 member countries: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Greece, Turkey, Japan, and Australia – all Western bloc nations. "Those blacklisted by COCOM included not only socialist countries but also some nationalist countries, affecting approximately 30 nations," aiming for complete coverage.
The world progresses, and Western embargoes are double-edged swords – a lesson that seems to have been forgotten by some. In November 1993, COCOM held a meeting in the Netherlands, concluding that COCOM "had lost its reason for continued existence." In 1994, COCOM was officially dissolved. However, the West retained its restrictive measures, merely trimming the list items, with the responsibility inherited by the "Wassenaar Arrangement" established in 1996. By 2021, the organization had expanded to 42 countries, including Russia, with the rest being European nations and US-friendly Asia-Pacific countries. China is not on the Wassenaar Arrangement's participant list. China is a country monitored by this organization, which is why Europe and America have been aggressively restricting China's access to semiconductor chips, supercomputers, space programs, and lithography machines in recent years – appearing reasonable and measured.
As a side note, COCOM's establishment coincidentally coincided with the founding of New China. The US assembled 17 countries to implement high-tech blockades against socialist China, even establishing a special "China Committee" to formulate 500 prohibited items.
Conclusion: The Tables Have Turned
For all these years, China has stood alone against the pack, consistently respecting your rules and spirit. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Now, you need to understand the logic of rare earths – and perhaps accept that the shoe is on the other foot.
Deep Blue
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
At the beginning of the new year, Donald Trump has single-handedly changed the United States, and the global landscape may also be reshaped. First, he declared that as Commander-in-Chief, the President’s authority is limited only by his own morality. Later, he posted an image on his social platform Truth Social with the caption “Acting President of Venezuela”. The New York Times directly questioned: “Does this mean ignoring international law and acting without any constraints to invade other countries?” Regarding international law, Trump stated, “I abide by it,” but made it clear that when such constraints apply to the United States, he would be the ultimate arbiter.
On January 7, 2026, the President signed a presidential memorandum ordering the United States to withdraw from 66 international organizations, including 31 United Nations entities and multiple major international agreements. This action is aimed at exiting organizations deemed by the White House to be “contrary to U.S. interests” and a waste of taxpayer funds. The UN bodies to be withdrawn from include UN Women, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the International Law Commission.
Clearly, Trump has a unique blueprint that serves only American interests. He might retort: “What era is this, still talking about international law and core values? Don’t you know the current state of the U.S.? Don’t you know that the U.S. has long been planning drastic actions?”
In April 2020, retired U.S. Marine Corps officer Mark Cancian proposed a bold strategy. The National Interest reported: “With a coastline of 9,000 miles and the world’s second-largest merchant fleet after Greece, including Hong Kong, China has over 4,000 ships. This is not an advantage but a vulnerability. The U.S. could effectively blockade China’s economy by launching a clever campaign, leaving it exhausted.” The suggestion was for the U.S. to emulate 16th-century Britain by supporting privateers—civilian organizations specialized in plundering Chinese merchant ships. Given China’s current military capabilities, it should be able to meet such challenges, so there’s no need to worry. Still, one can’t help but applaud the audacity of such an idea.
Back then, Biden paid no attention to this plan, as the Democrats were still refined and attached great importance to the cloak of universal values. At the same time, Biden, at least nominally, had to pay lip service to the United Nations, because ideology mattered. The U.S. had previously displayed a magical logic: attacking you to save your people, destroying your country to introduce democracy and freedom, imposing sanctions because you’re a dictatorship... Trump cannot be like ordinary advocates of universal values, who always cite international law and classical references. First, neither he nor his team possess such knowledge. Second, pretending to uphold morality can no longer maximize American interests. Third, former adversaries have “risen,” gradually establishing international moral authority. If the U.S. continues to preach benevolence, righteousness, propriety, wisdom, and trustworthiness, it will only become a laughingstock. After all, Trump has already discarded America’s credibility like trash.
Retired officer Cancian’s plan is exactly the White House’s cup of tea. For context—in the 16th century, Britain supported privateers, civilian organizations that plundered rival nations’ merchant ships. This was essentially the legalization of piracy, with the British monarch issuing “letters of marque” to recruit outlaws for royal service, dubbing them “royal pirates.” These privateers helped Britain destroy the then-dominant Spain at sea, significantly boosting British power and laying the foundation for the Industrial Revolution.
In reality, Trump has already begun “highway robbery” operations, seizing multiple cargo ships in the Caribbean. The White House has also dropped the pretense. Foreign media reported that Deputy Chief of Staff Miller recently declared: “The only permissible maritime energy transportation must comply with U.S. law and national security.” This is no different from robbery—“This mountain is my domain, these trees are my planting; if you wish to pass, leave your toll.” The only difference is that the U.S. is not just a bandit but a pirate. Similarly, Trump and Cheng Yaojin from the Dramatized History of Sui and Tang Dynasties share the title of “Chaos Demon King.”
Next, following the “Trump Gold Card,” Trump could publicly issue “letters of marque,” auctioning them to the highest bidder, and even list them on Wall Street. Their valuation might surpass that of the “Seven Sisters” oil companies—who knows?
