The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has caused widespread disruption to global aviation, with multiple flights canceled and others rerouted to avoid airspace over the Gulf region.
Speaking in an interview with China Global Television Network (CGTN), aviation specialist Nick Humphrey offered a deeper look at the economic fallout for airlines amid rising tensions.
In the short term, flight cancellations will increase carriers' costs for managing the issues, said Humphrey, who is also a partner at the transport and aviation law firm Norton White.
"If you look at it from an immediate perspective, across the weekend in the EU, there were 650 canceled flights. That will have an impact on revenue and forward bookings. And then how that flows on is, often these flight cancellations -- just like, for example, a short-term fog event -- can play out over a number of weeks to get the system back running. But unlike a weather event, how long this is going to last is unknown. So that, in itself, will cause repercussions, and how it will play into what is just about to be the busy summer season of flying -- the European, I guess, the northern hemisphere," he said.
As the conflict escalates, the implications for airlines extend beyond immediate flight cancellations, impacting their long-term operational strategies and financial stability.
Humphrey emphasized that the current geopolitical climate has compelled airlines to adapt their contingency plans, prioritizing safety and managing risks more effectively amid ongoing uncertainty.
"I guess the impact of geopolitical issues on global carriers is now the new normal. Airlines are built on one safety management, and risk aversion, and contingency planning, as they won't want to send an aircraft in one direction, not sure what they're going to do if the crew and the passengers are stuck in the other direction. So there are always contingencies, for example, if there was an engineering issue, and there's diversions. So these will come into play. The regulators, for example the UAE regulator, has issued some directives on airlines, activating their contingency plans and ensuring that they don't take on passengers that can't get home," he said.
On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting senior military officials, nuclear scientists, and civilians. In response, Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israeli locations, escalating an ongoing conflict marked by casualties and significant damage on both sides.
Israel-Iran conflict disrupts global aviation, triggers economic fallout for carriers: specialist
