Getting the Five “Musts” Right to Navigate the Century's Great transformation

The Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) has been implemented for five years now. Looking back at the chaos of 2019 and the enactment of the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2020, which had an immediate stabilising effect, it feels like a lifetime ago.

In his speech at the forum marking the fifth anniversary of the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law, Xia Baolong, Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, mentioned that the Hong Kong National Security Law holds milestone significance in the development of "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong. As the US-China struggle intensifies and reaches fever pitch, Director Xia noted that the current century's momentous transformation is accelerating, and Hong Kong's internal and external environment is undergoing profound changes. We must be guided by the "holistic approach to national security" to provide strong security guarantees for achieving Hong Kong's better development. The focus should be on grasping the following five “musts”:

First, we must integrate safeguarding national security throughout the entire process of implementing "one country, two systems".

There is a view in society that since Beijing now talks about the transition "from chaos to order", we no longer need to keep talking about national security every day.

Director Xia comprehensively refuted these views, stating that safeguarding national security will accompany the entire process of implementing "one country, two systems". He reminded everyone never to think that Hong Kong is now perfectly fine and no longer needs to safeguard national security. He said we must clearly see that anti-China, anti-Hong Kong elements have not given up their malicious intentions, with various forms of "soft resistance" constantly emerging in new ways, and external hostile forces have never stopped interfering in Hong Kong. The struggles against infiltration, subversion, and separatism have not ended. Some people with ill intentions fabricate fallacies to mislead people, such as "pan-NSL", claiming that the Hong Kong National Security Law undermines human rights and freedoms, and assertions that having the Hong Kong National Security Law means there is no "one country, two systems". In response, everyone must keep their eyes open, recognise the essence of its true  intention, and resolutely fight against this.

After listening to Director Xia's first point, I marked the phrase "entire process" – meaning it will never stop, to cope with the extremely complex and severe external situation.

Second, we must ensure that the governance of the Special Administrative Region remains firmly in the hands of patriots.

There are also some views in society suggesting that political stability has now been achieved, political reform can be restarted, and the government should tolerate more intense opposition voices.

But Director Xia pointed in a different direction, saying that if we cannot ensure national political security, and if the governance of the Special Administrative Region cannot be held in the hands of patriots, Hong Kong's prosperity and stability would be out of the question, and safeguarding national security would be empty talk. On this fundamental question of principle, we must maintain firm positions and clear-cut stands, never wavering at any time.

After listerning to Director Xia's second point, the words "regime security" marks in my heart: if the SAR's governance is not in the hands of patriots, it would threaten Beijing's regime. This is a new formulation, and the "35+ subversion case" is a good example.

Third, we must remain unwavering in both safeguarding security and promoting development.

There is a fallacious argument in society that now we are transitioning "from governance to prosperity", yet engaging in so many national security matters is detrimental to the economy.

Director Xia completely disagreed with this argument, believing that national security and development are related to each other and actually work hand in hand. He specifically quoted President Xi Jinping's emphasis that "security is the prerequisite for development, development is the guarantee of security, and we must remain unwavering in both safeguarding security and promoting development". Safeguarding national security is for Hong Kong's better development, to let Hong Kong people live better lives, and to better protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors.

After listening to Director Xia's third point, I noted these words: "remain unwavering in both security and development". Director Xia has previously said that while business knows no borders, businesspeople have a homeland – the business community must never do anything that harms national security and interests while pursuing development.

Fourth, we must effectively protect the human rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents.

Some people in society say the Hong Kong National Security Law has affected Hong Kong people's freedoms.

Director Xia sternly refuted this, pointing out that during the "extradition bill turmoil", ordinary citizens didn't even dare to walk the streets – what freedom was there? Speaking Putonghua in public places could result in being beaten – what human rights were there?

The Hong Kong National Security Law stipulates a comprehensive human rights protection system, reasonably balancing national security with human rights and freedoms, and implementing the principles of upholding the rule of law and respecting and protecting human rights throughout the legal provisions and implementation process. Over the five years since the Hong Kong National Security Law's implementation, it has only targeted an extremely small number of criminals who seriously endanger national security, while protecting the human rights and freedoms of all Hong Kong residents, including those of foreign friends in Hong Kong.

The key to Director Xia's fourth point lies in the two words: "reasonable balance".

Fifth, we must maintain Hong Kong's unique position and advantages.

Some people say that after the enactment of the Hong Kong National Security Law, foreign businesses dare not come to Hong Kong.

Director Xia said that under "one country, two systems" conditions, safeguarding national security makes Hong Kong more open and more free. Normal international exchanges not only do not violate the Hong Kong National Security Law but are protected by it. Safeguarding national security helps leverage Hong Kong's unique advantage of "backing of the motherland and connecting with the world", helps consolidate Hong Kong's highly free and open business environment, and helps deepen international exchanges and cooperation. This will surely make Hong Kong's door of openness wider and wider, and its international influence and competitiveness stronger and stronger. He even quoted senior executives from major multinational banks saying that China is becoming a key node in the rebalancing of global supply chains and economic power, while Hong Kong is the main bridge connecting mainland China with the world, its unique position and advantages will be further consolidated.

Director Xia's emphasis on "maintaining Hong Kong's unique position" is particularly impressive.

Beyond the five “musts”, Director Xia elevated the practice of the Hong Kong National Security Law to a theoretical level, pointing out that Hong Kong implements the holistic approach to national security, using high-level security to escort high-quality development. The key to the holistic approach to national security lies in "holistic", highlighting the concept of comprehensive security that covers both traditional and non-traditional security fields.

The five years of practice under the Hong Kong National Security Law show that under the international circumstances of sustained US pressure on China, this law is not one that restricts Hong Kong people's freedoms, but rather one that protects Hong Kong and the nation. Hong Kong is no longer a soft underbelly for foreign attacks on China, no longer a victim of colour revolutions.

 Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

"Don't wear a hat too big for your head." It is a bit of gritty Cantonese wisdom, but let's be honest: It applies to everyone.

You get exactly that flavor when digging into the new "2025 National Security Strategy" just dropped by U.S. President Trump. The whole document screams a single message: The U.S. is pulling back. It is retreating its main battle lines to the Western Hemisphere and embracing a hard line of "semi-isolationism."

Trump is a businessman at heart. He handles state affairs like a merchant, prioritizing cold, hard realism. He happily trashes the utopian thinking of "white left" politicians like Biden, tossing global interventionism into the trash bin.

This isn't just Trump picking a new path for America. It is a necessity. He simply has no other card to play. But make no mistake, this shift triggers massive implications.

The Dollar Illusion: Fading American Muscle

First, look at the numbers. On paper, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of GDP in dollar terms. China’s total looks to be less than 70 percent of that. But that is just a currency conversion trick. Use a fairer metric: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and China blew past the U.S. way back in 2014. That isn't Beijing bragging; it’s the cold math used by the IMF and the CIA.

It isn't just about total output. China has leapfrogged the U.S. in critical innovation sectors. Look at the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy. China has locked down a near-monopoly global advantage. For the U.S., this kind of dominance used to be unimaginable.

Militarily, the U.S. holds the advantage in stock, but its capacity to replenish is alarming. "Stock advantage" means they have more toys right now. But "worrying incremental capacity" is the nice way of saying U.S. manufacturing has gutted out. In a war, if a ship sinks, replacing it takes forever compared to China. Sixth-generation fighters? Hypersonic missiles? China has them in service. The U.S.? They still only exist on PowerPoint slides.

Trump knows the score. That explains the strategic contraction. He is done playing global cop. You want protection? Open your wallet. That goes for Japan, South Korea, and the NATO club in Europe.

Trump's endgame is focusing energy on the American homeland. He wants to rebuild a brawny manufacturing sector and a robust economy. Why? Because that is the only way the U.S. survives a long-run brawl with China.

A New Warring States Chessboard

Second, view the global chessboard like China's Warring States period. Trump’s worldview splits the hemispheres: "Befriend the distant while attacking the near." He wants the Western Hemisphere under lock and key. As for the Asia-Pacific? He is effectively ceding it as China's sphere of influence to cut costs, while plotting to keep a foot in the door for later.

This strategy has morphed from the old Yalta talks into a G2 model—a pure two-power game. When trouble hits, Beijing and Washington meet to fix it. Europe gets kicked to the curb. Western Europe has slid from a vital anti-Soviet ally to a heavy American burden.

Third, seeing Trump retreat feels like a win. It means the end of the Democrats' "pivot to Asia." But don't get lulled into paralysis. The hostility hasn't vanished; the U.S. is just "not wearing a hat too big for its head." They are avoiding a direct fight now only to bulk up for the ultimate showdown later.

Plus, there is another election in three years. Can the Republicans hold on? If the Democrats storm back, they will tear up this semi-isolationist playbook. Whether this strategy sticks or not, the competitive intent remains. China has to work day and night to strengthen itself during this short window.

The Trap of Complacency: Don't Blink

China needs to dominate the economy—not just plugging holes in chip manufacturing, but becoming number one in every innovative industry. While the U.S. tries to decouple and fix its own broken supply chains, China must build the strongest new systems in the next five or ten industries.

Finally, look at the stakes for Hong Kong. On one hand, U.S. contraction eases the political pressure cooker. On the other, as the country builds a brand-new, autonomous international system, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. We have a three-year window. We better use it. Time waits for no one.

Lo Wing-hung