New Zealand’s agricultural exporters are switching their attention to Asian markets as fears grow about the negative impact of increased U.S. tariffs, with many companies looking to strengthen their long-term trading relationship with China.
Agriculture is the backbone of the New Zealand economy, generating almost 60 percent of total exports. Dairy products represent a quarter of exports from the southwestern Pacific island country.
When U.S. President Donald Trump revealed his tariffs hit-list, New Zealand was on the minimum ten percent. But when dairy products from New Zealand land in the U.S. they're hit with average tariffs of almost 20 percent.
According to new research by New Zealand's leading commercial bank, ASB Bank, almost 80 percent of New Zealand's exporters are worried about the increased cost of doing business in the United States, and many fear that the trade war will lead to a prolonged economic downturn that will be worse than COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.
Farmers attending Fieldays, the Southern Hemisphere's largest agricultural show, expressed concern about the impact of Trump's global trade war.
KPMG, one of the world's Big Four consulting firms, said there's also been a breakdown in the vision, and values, that the United States once stood for.
"There's a lot of distrust, in part because of trade wars," said Andrew Watene, head of KPMG Propagate, during an event at Fieldays.
Watene said that New Zealand needs to choose more trustworthy trading partners.
"Some of the ways in which we're doing trade isn't necessarily going to be economics-based, it might be more based on who we trust and then we have to find the rates of return or profit out of that," he said.
Parmindar Singh is one of New Zealand's 11,000 dairy farmers. Speaking to China Global Television Network (CGTN), she said that the trade war is a wake-up call.
"I think we need to be clear on who we want to do business with. Do we want to do business in Thailand? Do we want to do business in Vietnam? Do we want to do business in Indonesia? We need to be selective of where we want to do business," Singh said.
Experts have warned that the threat of tariffs has led to a swing away from the United States toward untapped markets in the Asia-Pacific region. New Zealand farmers are already looking to build new relationships in Asia.
The current trade war emphasizes the importance of New Zealand's Free Trade Agreement with China which takes 30 percent of all the country’s dairy exports - with no tariffs.
China is also looking for new opportunities in New Zealand, with a record number of Chinese companies participating at Fieldays offering herbicides, advanced computer technology, and feed additives to improve animal nutrition and productivity.
"We know that the Chinese are innovators and they can scale quickly and they want to push the envelope and bring new and exciting things into the market solutions," said Steve Chappell, Fieldays program manager.
As well as being a farmer, Parmindar Singh is also a PhD student studying dairy market dynamics in Japan. She stressed that New Zealand needs to target large Asian cities rather than entire countries.
"We are small, New Zealand is a small producer, but for us, we do produce high-end products. So which markets do we want to be playing in," she said.
The organizer said that next year's Fieldays expo also promises to feature even more Chinese businesses as the trade relationship between the two sides grows.
"We're more than happy to welcome a whole bunch of new Chinese exhibitors to Fieldays next year in 2026 and beyond. So yeah, really happy to start that conversation about entering the New Zealand market," said Chappell.
New Zealand farmers pivot to Asian markets as concerns over trade war grow
