A changed Middle East brings vindication for Netanyahu but comes at a cost for Israel

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likes to remind his country and the world that in the disorienting first days after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, he predicted Israel would “change the Middle East.”

Now, 20 months later, a regionwide war has all but crushed the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, thrashed Hezbollah in Lebanon, toppled Bashar Assad in Syria and delivered a harsh blow to archenemy Iran.

It’s an achievement that Netanyahu, who has long railed against what he dubbed Tehran’s “tentacles of terror,” will likely claim as a personal win and a boost for his battered legacy.

One by one, Iran's network of regional allies has been neutralized, defeated or badly weakened, dismantling a ring of hostile armed actors along Israel's borders and reshaping the region.

But the changes came at an enormous cost for Israel, which suffered the deadliest attack in its history on Oct. 7 and faces deep international isolation over its response, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and made Gaza virtually unlivable. The strategic success, while stunning, leaves many questions about the future of the region.

“These changes are a major blow to the Iranian axis,” said Meir Litvak, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. “Does it change the Middle East entirely? No, because there are many problems that haven't been solved and won't be solved by this change.”

In his relentless crusade against Iran and its nuclear program, Netanyahu has long highlighted the Islamic Republic's yearslong campaign to deepen its influence across the Middle East by arming and funding proxies in strategic locations.

“Iran’s goons in Gaza, its lackeys in Lebanon, its Revolutionary Guards on the Golan Heights are clutching Israel with three tentacles of terror,” Netanyahu told Congress in a 2015 speech. In that speech, he railed against the Obama administration's emerging nuclear deal with Iran, which did not address its proxies.

“If Iran’s aggression is left unchecked, more will surely follow,” he said.

Netanyahu failed to prevent that nuclear deal from being signed, and there appeared to be little Israel could do to keep Iran and its allies in check. U.S. administrations slapped sanctions against Iran and its allies, while Netanyahu stepped up attacks in Syria against Iranian influence and arms transfers, but the axis persisted.

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to “export” its ideals to other parts of the region.

Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas, enjoyed Iranian funding and military support over the years. The Shiite Hezbollah has been a key ally of Iran's for decades. Assad, the former Syrian president and linchpin of Iran's foreign policy, allowed shipments of arms destined for Hezbollah to pass through his territory. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have launched missiles and drones at Israel since the start of the war in Gaza.

Hamas launched its Oct. 7 attacks with the hope that the stunning assault would trigger a response from the so-called “ring of fire” and lead to the intervention of Hezbollah and Iran.

The result was the exact opposite, a total unraveling of what appeared to be an ironclad alliance.

Although Hamas continues to fight Israel and hold dozens of Israeli hostages, its leadership has been wiped out and its strength is a small fraction of what it once was.

Hezbollah and the Houthis joined the fighting after the attacks but had no major bearing on Israel’s ability to respond to Hamas.

In late September, Israel launched a dizzying campaign against Hezbollah. What began with a covert operation that detonated explosive beepers and walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah members led to the group's total decapitation, including the killing its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, when Israel dropped dozens of bombs on his hideout.

With Hezbollah neutralized, Sunni Syrian rebels seized the moment to launch an insurgency, reaching the capital in days and toppling Assad, who had enjoyed the Lebanese militant group's protection in previous crises.

Hezbollah's weakness paved the way for Israel to strike Iran on two occasions last year, taking out key air defenses and clearing the way for the recent air war with Iran. Hezbollah, a major Iranian investment that once served as a deterrent against an Israeli strike on Iran, stayed entirely out of the war.

With Iran's strategy in tatters, the Houthis may not be able to keep up with their attacks.

“There is no doubt that Iranian proxies, the ring of fire, the axis of terror, the axis of resistance, whatever you want to call it, doesn’t exist anymore,” said Nadav Eyal, an Israeli commentator.

Netanyahu, who has watched his political fortunes plummet since Hamas’ initial attack, has been buoyed by each of those shifts in the region, though some were products of chance.

“We would not have gotten here without Oct. 7,” said David Makovsky, director of the program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Without Hamas' initial attack and the chain reaction it set off, Israel may not have succeeded in dismantling the Iranian axis at all.

And the shifts could backfire. Iran, without its first line of defense, may now feel vulnerable and could rush toward obtaining nuclear weapons in response.

Still, Netanyahu can likely count on an electoral boost from the regional changes. Israelis can feel relieved that the major threats that long encircled them, as well as the more distant Iran, have been subdued for now.

But Netanyahu's pledge to change the Middle East came at a staggering cost. Israeli society is forever changed by Hamas' attacks. The country's international standing has been badly, perhaps irreparably, damaged over devastation it has wrought in Gaza. And the underlying issue that set off the war in the first place — the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — remains further than ever from resolution.

“There is a major change here without a doubt,” said Litvak. “But that problem doesn't disappear.”

FILE - Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel, on June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)

A tent camp for displaced Palestinians stretches among the ruins of buildings destroyed by Israeli bombardments in west of Gaza City, Saturday, June 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

Houthi supporters surround a giant Iranian flag during an anti-U.S. and anti-Israel weekly rally in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, June 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

Israeli soldiers dig through rubble to search for survivors in a residential area hit by a missile fired from Iran, in Bat Yam, central Israel, Sunday, June 15, 2025.(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

BRUSSELS (AP) — Belgium insisted on Thursday that its European Union partners must provide ironclad guarantees that it will be protected from Russian retaliation before it would back a massive loan for Ukraine.

At a high-stakes EU summit in Brussels, the 27-nation bloc’s leaders are set to decide on whether to use tens of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets to underwrite a loan to meet Ukraine’s military and financial needs over the next two years.

The bulk of the assets — some 193 billion euros ($227 billion) as of September — are held in the Brussels-based financial clearing house Euroclear. Russia’s Central Bank sued Euroclear last week.

“Give me a parachute and we’ll all jump together,” Prime Minister Bart De Wever told members of the Belgian parliament just before the summit began. “If we have confidence in the parachute that shouldn’t be a problem.”

Belgium fears that Russia will strike back and would prefer that the bloc borrow the money on international markets. It wants frozen assets held in other European countries to be thrown into the pot as well, and for its partners to guarantee that Euroclear will have the funds it needs should it come under legal attack.

European officials say Russia is waging a campaign of sabotage and disruption across the continent. The Central Bank lawsuit ramped up pressure on Belgium and its European partners ahead of the summit.

The “reparations loan” plan would see the EU give 90 billion euros ($106 billion) to Ukraine. Countries like the U.K., Canada and Norway would make up any shortfall.

Russia's claim to the assets would still stand, but the assets would remain locked away at least until the Kremlin ends its war on Ukraine and pays for the massive damage it's caused.

In mapping out the loan plan, the European Commission set up safeguards to protect Belgium, but De Wever remains unconvinced.

“I have not yet seen a text that could satisfactorily address Belgium’s concerns," he said. "I hope to see one today.”

De Wever insisted that Belgium remains “a faithful ally” of Ukraine and wants to continue to help.

Whatever method they use, the leaders have pledged to meet most of Ukraine's needs in 2026 and 2027. The International Monetary Fund estimates that would amount to 137 billion euros ($160 billion). The war-ravaged country is at risk of bankruptcy and needs the money by spring.

“We have to find a solution today," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters. EU Council President António Costa, who is chairing the meeting, has vowed to keep leaders negotiating until an agreement is reached, even if it takes days.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: “Now we have a simple choice. Either money today or blood tomorrow." He insisted that "all European leaders have to rise to the occasion.”

EU envoys have worked around the clock in recent weeks to flesh out the details and narrow differences among the 27 member countries. If enough countries object, the plan could be blocked. There is no majority support for a plan B of raising the funds on international markets.

“At this stage, it depends on political will,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Whatsapp chat with reporters while flying to Brussels. “I very much hope that we can obtain a positive decision. Without it, Ukraine will face a major problem.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that he hopes Belgium's concerns can be addressed.

"The reactions of the Russian president in recent hours show how necessary this is. In my view, this is indeed the only option. We are basically faced with the choice of using European debt or Russian assets for Ukraine, and my opinion is clear: we must use the Russian assets.”

Hungary and Slovakia oppose von der Leyen’s plan for a reparations loan. Apart from Belgium, Bulgaria, Italy and Malta are also undecided.

“I would not like a European Union in war," said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who sees himself as a peacemaker. He’s also Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Europe. “To give money means war.”

Orbán described the loan plan as “a dead end,” and said that “the whole idea is a stupid one.”

The outcome of the summit has significant ramifications for Europe's place in negotiations to end the war. The United States wants assurances that the Europeans are intent on supporting Ukraine financially and backing it militarily, even as the talks drag on with few results so far.

The loan plan in particular also poses important challenges to the way the bloc goes about its business. Should a two-thirds majority of EU leaders decide to impose the scheme on Belgium, which has most to lose, the impact on decision-making in Europe would be profound.

Finding voting majorities and avoiding vetoes in the future could become infinitely more complex if one of the EU's founding members is forced to weather an attack on its interests by its very own partners.

De Wever too must weigh whether the cost of holding out against a majority is worth the hit his government's credibility would take in Europe.

Whatever is decided, the process does not end at this summit. Legal experts would have to convert any political deal into a workable agreement, and some national parliaments may have to weigh in before the loan money could start flowing to Ukraine.

Associated Press Writers Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin and Illia Novikov in Kyiv contributed to this report.

From left, Portugal's Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, European Council President Antonio Costa, French President Emmanuel Macron and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban during a round table meeting at the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

European Council President Antonio Costa, center right, speaks with Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, center left, during a round table meeting at the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

Belgium's Prime Minister Bart De Wever, center, speaks with from left, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, Netherland's Prime Minister Dick Schoof, Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk during a round table meeting at the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks with the media as he arrives for the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, right, arrives for the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Omar Havana)

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, center, is greeted as she arrives for a round table meeting on migration at the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, right, and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz, left, attend a round table meeting on migration at the EU Summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)

FILE - A view of the headquarters of Euroclear in Brussels, on Oct. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, File)