The world's gone absolutely mental. Four out of five UN Security Council permanent members are currently at war, and only China's managed to have avoided the chaos. Meanwhile, Iran just got a masterclass in American military precision delivered via B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles - three nuclear facilities reduced to rubble because Tehran made some spectacularly bad choices.
Now, before anyone starts banging on about international law and American hypocrisy (which, let's be honest, is real enough), we need to talk about survival. In today's jungle of international relations, being morally right doesn't stop cruise missiles from turning your infrastructure into smoking craters. Iran's recent pummeling offers some brutal lessons about what not to do when you're in America's crosshairs.
The Art of Strategic Dithering
Here's where Iran really shot itself in the foot - they've been playing nuclear hopscotch for years, enriching uranium to 60% but stopping short of the 90% needed for actual weapons. It's like bringing a knife to a gunfight, except you're not even sure if you want to use the knife.
John Mearsheimer, an American political scientist, recently said he'd have told Iran to go full nuclear years ago. And honestly? He's got a point. Look at North Korea - Kim Jong-un might be many things, but he's not stupid. Nobody's dropping bunker-busters on Pyongyang because they've got the bomb. Libya didn't have nukes, Iraq didn't have nukes, and now Iran's learning the hard way what happens when you hesitate.
This reminds me of Hong Kong's National Security Law back in 2020. The Americans and British threw an absolute fit, but Beijing didn't blink - they pushed it through in record time. Sometimes you've got to make the tough call and deal with the consequences later.
When Your House is Full of Informants
Iran's got a spy problem that would make a Cold War thriller look understated. When Israel launched its first major strikes in June, they managed to take out Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri with surgical precision. You don't achieve that level of accuracy without someone on the inside feeding you intelligence.
The mysterious helicopter crash that killed former President Raisi? Yeah, that screams sabotage. When your country's leadership keeps meeting untimely ends and the enemy always seems to know where your important people are, you've got a serious housekeeping problem.
It's actually quite striking how this mirrors Hong Kong's situation before the National Security Law. Foreign agents were practically holding coffee mornings in Central - former US naval intelligence officers working as newspaper boss’ assistants, defense officials having secret meetups. Hong Kong was like an "uncovered chicken coop," as they say. Thank goodness that nonsense got sorted.
Bringing a Slingshot to a Superpower Fight
Deterrence only works if you can actually hurt the other guy. Iran's defense capabilities are frankly embarrassing for a country that's been preparing for American aggression for four decades.
Trump was so worried about losing B-2 bombers that he had a closed-door meeting with Pakistan's Army Chief just days before the strikes, apparently fishing for intel about how Pakistan's Chinese J-10CE fighters managed to down Indian Rafales. The fact that America deployed an entire squadron of B-2s to the Pacific as a feint shows just how nervous they were.
But here's the kicker - if Iran had actually bought those J-10 fighters when they first appeared at the 2008 Zhuhai Airshow (Pakistan did, Iran didn't), coupled with some proper air defense systems, Trump might have thought twice about this whole bombing campaign. Weakness invites aggression - it's an old story, but apparently one Tehran never learned.
The Perils of Sitting on the Fence
Iran's biggest mistake might be its chronic inability to pick a side and stick with it. They signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China in 2021, but progress has been slower than a British train service. Why? Because there's always been a faction in Iran dreaming of reconciliation with America.
You can't have your cake and eat it too in geopolitics. Iran's been trying to keep one foot in each camp, and surprise - they've ended up falling flat on their face. Without solid allies, they became sitting ducks for Israeli strikes and American pressure campaigns.
This is where Hong Kong's actually got it right. We've got the motherland's backing, full stop. No hedging, no trying to play both sides. When push comes to shove, that kind of clarity matters more than all the diplomatic dancing in the world.
The chaos engulfing the Middle East right now should remind us how fortunate we are. Iran's taught us a valuable lesson through their mistakes - in today's world, security isn't just important, it's everything. Without it, development becomes impossible. Hong Kong learned this the hard way in 2019, but at least we learned it. Iran, unfortunately, is still paying tuition fees in the school of hard knocks.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
Most people think in black and white – you can either have goal A or goal B, but not both. But sophisticated policymakers operate in multiple dimensions, pulling off what seems impossible by achieving seemingly contradictory objectives simultaneously.
When Hong Kong's National Security Law kicked in on June 30, 2020, the usual suspects were quick to cry doom and gloom. We heard all the predictable lines: "too much One Country means goodbye Two Systems," "all this security talk will kill Hong Kong's development," and my personal favourite – "national security destroys creativity, so how can Hong Kong do proper science or arts anymore?"
The Creativity Myth Gets Demolished
Let's tackle that last point first. It's actually the easiest to debunk with some proper real-world examples. Remember when Hong Kong's celebrated director Johnnie To moaned that "the National Security Law stifles film creativity"? Well, that aged like milk. While he was having his whinge, the mainland went and produced "Chang An," a brilliant animated film about Li Bai's life that was bursting with creativity. Then came "Ne Zha 2," which smashed into fifth place for global cinema box office history. Talk about a slap in the face for Director To – surely Hong Kong's National Security Law isn't more restrictive than the mainland's version?
The same nonsense gets peddled about scientific research. Some local scholars keep banging on about how strict mainland controls supposedly crush scientific creativity. Yet early this year, mainland China dropped DeepSeek, an AI large language model that rivals America's top-tier ChatGPT – and they did it at a fraction of the cost. Here's the kicker: apart from the US itself, none of those countries constantly waving the flag for American-style democracy and freedom have managed to produce anything close to DeepSeek's calibre. You've got people in Japan, Israel, and elsewhere scratching their heads wondering why they can't pull off what China just did.
These "National Security Law ruins everything" arguments are pure Western political bias dressed up as analysis – they're textbook examples of "democratic determinism" that completely miss how different phenomena actually work.
Understanding the Real Relationship
When Xia Baolong, Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, spoke at the seminar marking the National Security Law's fifth anniversary, he didn't get bogged down in supposed contradictions between security and development. Instead, he emphasised President Xi Jinping's insight that "security is the prerequisite for development, development is the guarantee of security, and we must remain unwavering in both safeguarding security and promoting development." The focus wasn't on contradiction – it was on unity within apparent opposition.
This reflects mainland China's dialectical approach to problem-solving. Sure, plenty of things in this world seem contradictory and pulling in opposite directions. Sometimes two goals appear to be fighting each other, but when you dig deeper into their relationship, you discover they're actually complementary. When we swallow the Western line and approach everything from the angle of opposing national security laws, we end up thinking any National Security Law means the apocalypse – that Hong Kong becomes utterly useless with such legislation in place.
The Foreign Capital Red Herring
Take the foreign capital withdrawal narrative that got so much airtime after Hong Kong implemented the National Security Law. Yes, foreign capital – particularly American money – temporarily pulled back from Hong Kong stocks. But here's what the critics conveniently forgot to mention: the US government actively instructed American funds not to buy mainland and Hong Kong stocks. This was a deliberate political operation to suppress China, with American global allocation recommendations slashing Hong Kong stocks from 7% to a measly 1.5%.
About a year ago, someone asked me: "How do we get American capital back into Hong Kong's stock market?" My answer was simple: "When the market rises, they'll come running back." You've got to take the long view here. Economics work in cycles, stock markets go up and down – that's just how it works.
The Numbers Don't Lie
As Director Xia pointed out in his Hong Kong speech, "the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law has injected strong stability, certainty, and predictability into the market." The results speak for themselves: Hong Kong's been rated the world's freest economy again, its international financial centre status holds firm at third globally, world competitiveness has jumped to third place globally, and talent competitiveness is back up to tenth worldwide. You've got over 2,700 single family offices operating in Hong Kong now, with more than half managing assets exceeding US$50 million.
Since the start of this year, the Hang Seng Index has been leading global gains, Hong Kong IPO fundraising hit HK$80 billion – that's over 700% up year-on-year and tops worldwide. Not exactly the economic wasteland the critics predicted, is it?
All the evidence points to one conclusion: the Hong Kong National Security Law hasn't hindered investment one bit. What it did was create environmental stability and lay solid foundations. When the cycle turned and market sentiment improved, investment naturally followed.
Just imagine if we still had the 2019 chaos – petrol bombs flying everywhere, roads completely blocked, people plotting to detonate explosives in busy districts for terrorist attacks. Do you seriously think Hong Kong's stock market could thrive in that environment? Beijing certainly wouldn't feel comfortable letting mainland companies list in Hong Kong if they'd just become sitting ducks for attacks.
The logic is crystal clear: political stability comes first, then financial activity follows. Only then do Beijing and sensible foreign capital regain confidence in Hong Kong. We can't just focus on American capital outflows following US political directives after the National Security Law – we've also got to acknowledge the massive benefits of Hong Kong regaining stability and attracting huge mainland capital inflows.
Security and development have both contradictory and complementary aspects – it all comes down to how you handle it. Director Xia highlighted the concept of holistic national security, noting that Hong Kong's national security work is shifting from simply shoring up bottom lines to actively promoting growth. The approach has evolved, but the commitment to safeguarding security remains rock solid.
When you look around the world, the lesson is obvious: without security and stability, nothing else matters. Hong Kong learned this the hard way, but it's come out stronger.
Lo Wing-hung
