Iran's Fatal Mistakes: What Happens When You Can't Pick a Side

The world's gone absolutely mental. Four out of five UN Security Council permanent members are currently at war, and only China's managed to have avoided the chaos. Meanwhile, Iran just got a masterclass in American military precision delivered via B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles - three nuclear facilities reduced to rubble because Tehran made some spectacularly bad choices.

Now, before anyone starts banging on about international law and American hypocrisy (which, let's be honest, is real enough), we need to talk about survival. In today's jungle of international relations, being morally right doesn't stop cruise missiles from turning your infrastructure into smoking craters. Iran's recent pummeling offers some brutal lessons about what not to do when you're in America's crosshairs.

The Art of Strategic Dithering

Here's where Iran really shot itself in the foot - they've been playing nuclear hopscotch for years, enriching uranium to 60% but stopping short of the 90% needed for actual weapons. It's like bringing a knife to a gunfight, except you're not even sure if you want to use the knife.

John Mearsheimer, an American political scientist, recently said he'd have told Iran to go full nuclear years ago. And honestly? He's got a point. Look at North Korea - Kim Jong-un might be many things, but he's not stupid. Nobody's dropping bunker-busters on Pyongyang because they've got the bomb. Libya didn't have nukes, Iraq didn't have nukes, and now Iran's learning the hard way what happens when you hesitate.

This reminds me of Hong Kong's National Security Law back in 2020. The Americans and British threw an absolute fit, but Beijing didn't blink - they pushed it through in record time. Sometimes you've got to make the tough call and deal with the consequences later.

When Your House is Full of Informants

Iran's got a spy problem that would make a Cold War thriller look understated. When Israel launched its first major strikes in June, they managed to take out Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri with surgical precision. You don't achieve that level of accuracy without someone on the inside feeding you intelligence.

The mysterious helicopter crash that killed former President Raisi? Yeah, that screams sabotage. When your country's leadership keeps meeting untimely ends and the enemy always seems to know where your important people are, you've got a serious housekeeping problem.

It's actually quite striking how this mirrors Hong Kong's situation before the National Security Law. Foreign agents were practically holding coffee mornings in Central - former US naval intelligence officers working as newspaper boss’ assistants, defense officials having secret meetups. Hong Kong was like an "uncovered chicken coop," as they say. Thank goodness that nonsense got sorted.

Bringing a Slingshot to a Superpower Fight

Deterrence only works if you can actually hurt the other guy. Iran's defense capabilities are frankly embarrassing for a country that's been preparing for American aggression for four decades.

Trump was so worried about losing B-2 bombers that he had a closed-door meeting with Pakistan's Army Chief just days before the strikes, apparently fishing for intel about how Pakistan's Chinese J-10CE fighters managed to down Indian Rafales. The fact that America deployed an entire squadron of B-2s to the Pacific as a feint shows just how nervous they were.

But here's the kicker - if Iran had actually bought those J-10 fighters when they first appeared at the 2008 Zhuhai Airshow (Pakistan did, Iran didn't), coupled with some proper air defense systems, Trump might have thought twice about this whole bombing campaign. Weakness invites aggression - it's an old story, but apparently one Tehran never learned.

The Perils of Sitting on the Fence

Iran's biggest mistake might be its chronic inability to pick a side and stick with it. They signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China in 2021, but progress has been slower than a British train service. Why? Because there's always been a faction in Iran dreaming of reconciliation with America.

You can't have your cake and eat it too in geopolitics. Iran's been trying to keep one foot in each camp, and surprise - they've ended up falling flat on their face. Without solid allies, they became sitting ducks for Israeli strikes and American pressure campaigns.

This is where Hong Kong's actually got it right. We've got the motherland's backing, full stop. No hedging, no trying to play both sides. When push comes to shove, that kind of clarity matters more than all the diplomatic dancing in the world.

The chaos engulfing the Middle East right now should remind us how fortunate we are. Iran's taught us a valuable lesson through their mistakes - in today's world, security isn't just important, it's everything. Without it, development becomes impossible. Hong Kong learned this the hard way in 2019, but at least we learned it. Iran, unfortunately, is still paying tuition fees in the school of hard knocks.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

"Don't wear a hat too big for your head." It is a bit of gritty Cantonese wisdom, but let's be honest: It applies to everyone.

You get exactly that flavor when digging into the new "2025 National Security Strategy" just dropped by U.S. President Trump. The whole document screams a single message: The U.S. is pulling back. It is retreating its main battle lines to the Western Hemisphere and embracing a hard line of "semi-isolationism."

Trump is a businessman at heart. He handles state affairs like a merchant, prioritizing cold, hard realism. He happily trashes the utopian thinking of "white left" politicians like Biden, tossing global interventionism into the trash bin.

This isn't just Trump picking a new path for America. It is a necessity. He simply has no other card to play. But make no mistake, this shift triggers massive implications.

The Dollar Illusion: Fading American Muscle

First, look at the numbers. On paper, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of GDP in dollar terms. China’s total looks to be less than 70 percent of that. But that is just a currency conversion trick. Use a fairer metric: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and China blew past the U.S. way back in 2014. That isn't Beijing bragging; it’s the cold math used by the IMF and the CIA.

It isn't just about total output. China has leapfrogged the U.S. in critical innovation sectors. Look at the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy. China has locked down a near-monopoly global advantage. For the U.S., this kind of dominance used to be unimaginable.

Militarily, the U.S. holds the advantage in stock, but its capacity to replenish is alarming. "Stock advantage" means they have more toys right now. But "worrying incremental capacity" is the nice way of saying U.S. manufacturing has gutted out. In a war, if a ship sinks, replacing it takes forever compared to China. Sixth-generation fighters? Hypersonic missiles? China has them in service. The U.S.? They still only exist on PowerPoint slides.

Trump knows the score. That explains the strategic contraction. He is done playing global cop. You want protection? Open your wallet. That goes for Japan, South Korea, and the NATO club in Europe.

Trump's endgame is focusing energy on the American homeland. He wants to rebuild a brawny manufacturing sector and a robust economy. Why? Because that is the only way the U.S. survives a long-run brawl with China.

A New Warring States Chessboard

Second, view the global chessboard like China's Warring States period. Trump’s worldview splits the hemispheres: "Befriend the distant while attacking the near." He wants the Western Hemisphere under lock and key. As for the Asia-Pacific? He is effectively ceding it as China's sphere of influence to cut costs, while plotting to keep a foot in the door for later.

This strategy has morphed from the old Yalta talks into a G2 model—a pure two-power game. When trouble hits, Beijing and Washington meet to fix it. Europe gets kicked to the curb. Western Europe has slid from a vital anti-Soviet ally to a heavy American burden.

Third, seeing Trump retreat feels like a win. It means the end of the Democrats' "pivot to Asia." But don't get lulled into paralysis. The hostility hasn't vanished; the U.S. is just "not wearing a hat too big for its head." They are avoiding a direct fight now only to bulk up for the ultimate showdown later.

Plus, there is another election in three years. Can the Republicans hold on? If the Democrats storm back, they will tear up this semi-isolationist playbook. Whether this strategy sticks or not, the competitive intent remains. China has to work day and night to strengthen itself during this short window.

The Trap of Complacency: Don't Blink

China needs to dominate the economy—not just plugging holes in chip manufacturing, but becoming number one in every innovative industry. While the U.S. tries to decouple and fix its own broken supply chains, China must build the strongest new systems in the next five or ten industries.

Finally, look at the stakes for Hong Kong. On one hand, U.S. contraction eases the political pressure cooker. On the other, as the country builds a brand-new, autonomous international system, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. We have a three-year window. We better use it. Time waits for no one.

Lo Wing-hung