Some People Never Learn: Five Years Since the Implementation of the National Security Law, Some are Still Stupid enough to Engage in Subversion Activities

You'd think after five years, people would get the message. But apparently not. Hong Kong's National Security Law continues to claim new victims, this time including a 15-year-old who clearly didn't think things through.

There's an old Chinese saying that perfectly sums up Hong Kong's political situation: "The tree wants to be quiet but the wind is not stopping." While many are calling for the government to dial down the security law rhetoric and pursue reconciliation, others are still brazenly engaging in subversive activities as if the Hong Kong Police is non-existant.

The Latest Arrests: Playing with Fire

Yesterday's police action saw four Chinese nationals aged 15 to 47 arrested for allegedly violating Article 22 of the Hong Kong National Security Law - specifically, "subversion of state power." These individuals had apparently joined something called the "Hong Kong Democratic Independence Alliance" which was set up in Taiwan and sounds about as subtle as a brick through a window.

This organisation announced itself on social media back in November 2024, making it crystal clear what they were about: subverting state power and achieving "Hong Kong independence." They weren't exactly hiding their intentions - they even went so far as to propose their own national flags and anthems, seek international support, and plan military training for Hong Kong people abroad.

The four arrestees had various roles within this organisation, from secretary-general to ordinary members. They were busy designing badges and flags, researching ways to secure foreign support, and organising military training. Police even found a document titled "Proposal to Urge the United States to Formulate a Hong Kong Political Prisoner Rescue Plan" on their devices.

The Puppet Master: Meet "Pastor Jiang"

The mastermind behind this outfit is apparently one Jiang Jiawei, who styles himself as "Pastor Jiang." But he's about as much a pastor as I am a ballet dancer.

This character had actually been sentenced to eight months in Hong Kong for seditious intent before skipping off to Taiwan. The Hong Kong-Macau Conference of Seventh-day Adventist Church had to issue a statement clarifying that while Jiang was baptised in their church, he was never ordained as a pastor. So much for that credential.

The guy's track record in Taiwan hasn't exactly been stellar either. He was stabbed during a drunken altercation in Taipei last March - hardly the behaviour you'd expect from a man of the cloth. Even Taiwan seems to have had enough of him, with the Mainland Affairs Council refusing his residency application and immigration officials reportedly telling him to buy a ticket to Japan.

Yet this same "Pastor Jiang" continues operating online, recruiting followers and remotely controlling them to cause trouble back in Hong Kong. That 15-year-old who got arrested? He's a perfect example of what happens when young people fall for these smooth-talking political fraudsters.

The Broader Picture: Old Poison, New Victims

What's particularly telling about this case is what police found during their searches. Alongside the usual separatist paraphernalia - flags featuring snow lions (Tibetan independence), Greater Canton independence symbols, and "Liberate Hong Kong" banners - they discovered piles of Apple Daily newspapers.

This really drives home how the toxic ideology peddled by that publication continues to poison minds long after it shut down. These individuals had clearly been fed a steady diet of subversive and separatist propaganda that ultimately led them down this destructive path.

The organisation's talk of seeking international support and providing military training should remind us of the "Dragon Slaying" case, where defendants went to Taiwan for military training, returned to Hong Kong to manufacture bombs, and planned to detonate them in busy areas targeting police officers. What might seem like an absurd political stunt can quickly escalate into something far more dangerous.

The Bottom Line

What we're seeing here is a classic case of "the cunning speak while the foolish act." Characters like "Pastor Jiang" sit safely abroad, spinning their rhetoric and recruiting followers online, while naive individuals - including impressionable teenagers - end up facing serious criminal charges for their actions.

The reality is that Hong Kong's national security apparatus isn't going anywhere, and pretending otherwise is a dangerous delusion. Those who continue to test these boundaries are playing a game they simply cannot win.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

"Don't wear a hat too big for your head." It is a bit of gritty Cantonese wisdom, but let's be honest: It applies to everyone.

You get exactly that flavor when digging into the new "2025 National Security Strategy" just dropped by U.S. President Trump. The whole document screams a single message: The U.S. is pulling back. It is retreating its main battle lines to the Western Hemisphere and embracing a hard line of "semi-isolationism."

Trump is a businessman at heart. He handles state affairs like a merchant, prioritizing cold, hard realism. He happily trashes the utopian thinking of "white left" politicians like Biden, tossing global interventionism into the trash bin.

This isn't just Trump picking a new path for America. It is a necessity. He simply has no other card to play. But make no mistake, this shift triggers massive implications.

The Dollar Illusion: Fading American Muscle

First, look at the numbers. On paper, the U.S. remains the heavyweight champion of GDP in dollar terms. China’s total looks to be less than 70 percent of that. But that is just a currency conversion trick. Use a fairer metric: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and China blew past the U.S. way back in 2014. That isn't Beijing bragging; it’s the cold math used by the IMF and the CIA.

It isn't just about total output. China has leapfrogged the U.S. in critical innovation sectors. Look at the "new trio": electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy. China has locked down a near-monopoly global advantage. For the U.S., this kind of dominance used to be unimaginable.

Militarily, the U.S. holds the advantage in stock, but its capacity to replenish is alarming. "Stock advantage" means they have more toys right now. But "worrying incremental capacity" is the nice way of saying U.S. manufacturing has gutted out. In a war, if a ship sinks, replacing it takes forever compared to China. Sixth-generation fighters? Hypersonic missiles? China has them in service. The U.S.? They still only exist on PowerPoint slides.

Trump knows the score. That explains the strategic contraction. He is done playing global cop. You want protection? Open your wallet. That goes for Japan, South Korea, and the NATO club in Europe.

Trump's endgame is focusing energy on the American homeland. He wants to rebuild a brawny manufacturing sector and a robust economy. Why? Because that is the only way the U.S. survives a long-run brawl with China.

A New Warring States Chessboard

Second, view the global chessboard like China's Warring States period. Trump’s worldview splits the hemispheres: "Befriend the distant while attacking the near." He wants the Western Hemisphere under lock and key. As for the Asia-Pacific? He is effectively ceding it as China's sphere of influence to cut costs, while plotting to keep a foot in the door for later.

This strategy has morphed from the old Yalta talks into a G2 model—a pure two-power game. When trouble hits, Beijing and Washington meet to fix it. Europe gets kicked to the curb. Western Europe has slid from a vital anti-Soviet ally to a heavy American burden.

Third, seeing Trump retreat feels like a win. It means the end of the Democrats' "pivot to Asia." But don't get lulled into paralysis. The hostility hasn't vanished; the U.S. is just "not wearing a hat too big for its head." They are avoiding a direct fight now only to bulk up for the ultimate showdown later.

Plus, there is another election in three years. Can the Republicans hold on? If the Democrats storm back, they will tear up this semi-isolationist playbook. Whether this strategy sticks or not, the competitive intent remains. China has to work day and night to strengthen itself during this short window.

The Trap of Complacency: Don't Blink

China needs to dominate the economy—not just plugging holes in chip manufacturing, but becoming number one in every innovative industry. While the U.S. tries to decouple and fix its own broken supply chains, China must build the strongest new systems in the next five or ten industries.

Finally, look at the stakes for Hong Kong. On one hand, U.S. contraction eases the political pressure cooker. On the other, as the country builds a brand-new, autonomous international system, Hong Kong has a critical role to play. We have a three-year window. We better use it. Time waits for no one.

Lo Wing-hung